USC/Texas opinions

[Vince Young]

17.5, but who's counting?

[thatpfunk]

It sure is interesting to go and look at the speculation threads from last year.

as a usc fan it is nice to see similar complaints...
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[DougOzzzz]

[ QUOTE ]

Always fade ESPN, especially when Sagarin believes otherwise. (remember Yankees/Red Sox in the playoffs this year)


[/ QUOTE ]

ESPN has probably done a fine job in the NFL this year. I'm definitely NOT arguing that you should follow ESPN - but bringing up 1 example where they were wrong is pretty weak.

A better argument is:

USUALLY fade ESPN because this is what the general public listens to. The general public is not as smart as the bookies, and thus they tend to lose more often than not. "Sharps" in general fade the public, but a true sharp is able to objectively pick the right side regardless of how the public feels.

[PropPlayer]

I hope Texas wins. I found $32.00 in my 5 dimes account I had forgot about.. did not plan on depositing there unless I need to for a while so made this 3 Team Parlay. First 2 won.. Let go Texas =).
VIRGINIA +190
LSU +225
TEXAS +235
Risk $32.00 to win $978.36

I made a risky headge on a 2 Team Tease. Celtics last night +5 and USC -1.5 for $300.. If anyone watched the game. celtics were down 8 with like 15 seconds to go. Stole an inbounds pass scored two. Put the Kings on the free throw line they missed 1 of 2.. forget the whole story but down 7 the celtics got 2 shots at a 3 pointer with 6 seconds left and hit the buzzer to loose by 4pts.
I'll be routing for Texas. up $283 if USC covers -1.5 and up $678.36 if Texas wins outright. I just hope the game doesnt end in an OT missed extra point lol.

[slavic]

“Their coaches are in no way a wash. Look at USC's defensive record with more than a week of preparation. They are their strongest showings; PC makes incredible gameplans.”

Ok look, Texas is not shallow at Defensive coordinator, look up who the guy is before you go too far into this love fest. Also note that Penn State revamped their offense this year with the help of the Texas coaching staff, again USC may have an edge but I doubt it’s huge.

”MB is notorious for not winning big games.”

This one has always gotten me about Texas, Florida State, Florida, Ten, VT ect ect. If these teams lose it’s a big game, if they win it was expected. Go figure.


“Also, USC's defense matches up well with Texas. The teams that were most successful against their D were short-passing, West Coast-style. Their weakness is their defensive backs. However, the defense does not give up big plays; it is the short pass that kills them.”

What? I had the pleasure of watching USC live this year and several times on TV. Other teams scored on big plays, Fresno was methodical down the field but that is Fresno.


“Texas, on the otherhand, relies much upon big plays from VY. He scrambles, WR's get behind the defense, big play ensues.”

Don’t forget he just has designed runs, 3 RB’s that run sub 4.4’s, one that’s as big as a DE, an All American TE, 3 better than average receivers, and a stout set of lineman. Go look at the players, this offense lost a top first round draft pick RB last year, their best WR, TE and got better. Also while your at it look up Romance Taylor’s numbers for Texas and compare his yards per touch to Bush. I think you’ll be surprised. Texas is not a bunch of scrubs and then VY, VY just happens to be driving the car, and looking pretty good doing it.

“USC will not give this up;”
Ohio State, OU, Kansas (yes Kansas) all thought pretty much the same, Texas Tech did also but nobody gives them credit for having the LB’s required to slow young.

“They have very athletic LB's which are athletic.”

Oh come on now did you really write that? USC’s best LB is now in Seattle and they have 2 Frosh and a Soph starting, they are good and fast but still young.


“VY will be forced into turnovers, another stat in which USC excels.”

The Longhorns put the ball on the ground a little too much, most of that has been the new running backs, but VY has also thrown some odd INT’s, but most of them are of the Tip variety.

”Texas' defense is good. They also played in the Big-12, not an offensive powerhouse. They have never seen an offense like USC.”

An I formation offense that run’s 40% of the time, primarily runs to C and D gaps of the strong side pulling one or both guards. Most pass routes are fairly short under the safety routes designed to set up the wheel play. In short yardage they run A&B gaps 60% of the time and work the fade well? Nope never seen an offense like that, except in practice every day.

”USC is playing a home game. They have done this before. If they fall behind early, they have the perfet offense to comeback. UT falling behind early is ideal for USC.”

Tell that to Michigan, Ohio State, Oklahoma State(twice), TAMU, ect ect

In fact I’m not sure you can find a much more hostile environment to play a game than the Horseshoe. Texas seemed to do fine. Maybe the Swamp or at Tenn. would be worse but frankly the fans aren’t as exciting on the west coast here.

”Those are most of my reasons.”

Look if your serious about wanting to lay 20 points I'm sure some healthy money is willing to take it.

[slavic]

[ QUOTE ]
It sure is interesting to go and look at the speculation threads from last year.

as a usc fan it is nice to see similar complaints...
sports betting thread
more sports betting

[/ QUOTE ]

Were is Big Al on this one?

[pgjcbsn]

MB is notorius for not winning big games

Texas 38 Michigan 37 2005 Rose Bowl
Texas 25 Ohio State 22 Sept 10
Texas 45 Oklahoma 12 Oct 8

These weren't big games?

They also played in the Big-12, not an offensive powerhouse.

Last time I checked the Big-12 was 4-1 in this years bowl season and they've been the underdog in every game.

USC is playing a home game.

How many times do you play a "home game" and have half the stadium filled with your opponents fans?

The bottom line for me is this. Texas is the best team USC has played all year and they've had some close scrapes several times. I'm taking the points.

[thatpfunk]

[ QUOTE ]
“Their coaches are in no way a wash. Look at USC's defensive record with more than a week of preparation. They are their strongest showings; PC makes incredible gameplans.”

Ok look, Texas is not shallow at Defensive coordinator, look up who the guy is before you go too far into this love fest. Also note that Penn State revamped their offense this year with the help of the Texas coaching staff, again USC may have an edge but I doubt it’s huge.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is silly. texas has good coaches, no one is saying they aren't good. whose staff would you want coaching your team in this game? PC's teams have a history of playing significantly better/their best with more than a weeks preparation. their OCs have consistently made the best 2nd half adjustments in the NCAA, especially in important games.

[ QUOTE ]
”MB is notorious for not winning big games.”

This one has always gotten me about Texas, Florida State, Florida, Ten, VT ect ect. If these teams lose it’s a big game, if they win it was expected. Go figure.

[/ QUOTE ]

UT has one big game every year. What is MB's record in that game? Are you saying they shouldn't have been expected to actually win this year?


[ QUOTE ]
“Also, USC's defense matches up well with Texas. The teams that were most successful against their D were short-passing, West Coast-style. Their weakness is their defensive backs. However, the defense does not give up big plays; it is the short pass that kills them.”

What? I had the pleasure of watching USC live this year and several times on TV. Other teams scored on big plays, Fresno was methodical down the field but that is Fresno.

[/ QUOTE ]
The most successful offenses vs the USC defense was that style of offense. Why don't you actually look something up: ASU 28 pts, Notre Dame 31 pts, FSU 42. That's it for the whole year. Running the ball wasn't exactly these teams's strength. You better believe the UT has to score at least 28 to win.


[ QUOTE ]
“Texas, on the otherhand, relies much upon big plays from VY. He scrambles, WR's get behind the defense, big play ensues.”

Don’t forget he just has designed runs, 3 RB’s that run sub 4.4’s, one that’s as big as a DE, an All American TE, 3 better than average receivers, and a stout set of lineman. Go look at the players, this offense lost a top first round draft pick RB last year, their best WR, TE and got better. Also while your at it look up Romance Taylor’s numbers for Texas and compare his yards per touch to Bush. I think you’ll be surprised. Texas is not a bunch of scrubs and then VY, VY just happens to be driving the car, and looking pretty good doing it.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm not calling these players scrubs. Where did I even imply this? USC matches up well with this offense. Their front seven is strong and athletic. Texas can't rely on being the better athletes here. Forcing a team like UT into 12-17 play drives is ideal for USC.

[ QUOTE ]
“USC will not give this up;”
Ohio State, OU, Kansas (yes Kansas) all thought pretty much the same, Texas Tech did also but nobody gives them credit for having the LB’s required to slow young.

[/ QUOTE ]
Obviously UT will have some big plays. They will also put together some long drives. I'm not saying their offense is going to get shutdown. I'm expecting USC to score a lot of points, I don't think UT will be able to go drive for drive with them. A three-and-out here, a TO here, USC can jump to a lead really easy. Of course UT has the chance to do this as well, I just think USC has a greater chance of this occuring.
[ QUOTE ]
“They have very athletic LB's which are athletic.”

Oh come on now did you really write that? USC’s best LB is now in Seattle and they have 2 Frosh and a Soph starting, they are good and fast but still young.

[/ QUOTE ]
Having fast, athletic LBs is the best defense against VY, thats all.


[ QUOTE ]
“VY will be forced into turnovers, another stat in which USC excels.”

The Longhorns put the ball on the ground a little too much, most of that has been the new running backs, but VY has also thrown some odd INT’s, but most of them are of the Tip variety.

[/ QUOTE ]
And USC seems to force a lot of these quirky TO's. I can't find their exact spot, but I believe they are extremely high in the giveaway:takeaway ratio. A few TO's either way could swing this game quite a bit. I'm simply stating that it is more likely that USC benefits from this.

[ QUOTE ]
”Texas' defense is good. They also played in the Big-12, not an offensive powerhouse. They have never seen an offense like USC.”

An I formation offense that run’s 40% of the time, primarily runs to C and D gaps of the strong side pulling one or both guards. Most pass routes are fairly short under the safety routes designed to set up the wheel play. In short yardage they run A&B gaps 60% of the time and work the fade well? Nope never seen an offense like that, except in practice every day.

[/ QUOTE ]
Do I have to spell it out? USC is much, much better than any offense they have played all year.

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”USC is playing a home game. They have done this before. If they fall behind early, they have the perfet offense to comeback. UT falling behind early is ideal for USC.”

Tell that to Michigan, Ohio State, Oklahoma State(twice), TAMU, ect ect

In fact I’m not sure you can find a much more hostile environment to play a game than the Horseshoe. Texas seemed to do fine. Maybe the Swamp or at Tenn. would be worse but frankly the fans aren’t as exciting on the west coast here.

[/ QUOTE ]
Michigan? They didn't play Michigan. tOSU- 22pts, Okie St- 28pts, TAMU- 29 pts... USC's offense is significantly better than all of those teams'. Their big play potential is probably greater than all those teams' combined. Plus, Reggies is returning kicks.

A home game is an advantage, as slight as you want to believe it to be. USC players get to go home and relax after practice and media. UT players, not so much.

[ QUOTE ]
”Those are most of my reasons.”

Look if your serious about wanting to lay 20 points I'm sure some healthy money is willing to take it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't WANT to lay 20 points. I'm not mentaly impaired. I ran my mouth about how good I thought USC was and VY called me out on it (during the 1st or 2nd game of the season. i said something like USC is 21 points better than every other team in the nation. we bet that on them vs any bowl opponent for 17.5). I put my money where my mouth was. I know it's a horrible bet, but I'm not gonna run my mouth and then not put my money up when someone disagrees.

[thatpfunk]

[ QUOTE ]
MB is notorius for not winning big games

Texas 38 Michigan 37 2005 Rose Bowl
Texas 25 Ohio State 22 Sept 10
Texas 45 Oklahoma 12 Oct 8

These weren't big games?

They also played in the Big-12, not an offensive powerhouse.

Last time I checked the Big-12 was 4-1 in this years bowl season and they've been the underdog in every game.

USC is playing a home game.

How many times do you play a "home game" and have half the stadium filled with your opponents fans?

The bottom line for me is this. Texas is the best team USC has played all year and they've had some close scrapes several times. I'm taking the points.

[/ QUOTE ]

OU is THE game for UT year in and year out. I think it is fair to say when the teams have been very close in skill level (ending the year ranked 4,5 and 8,9) UT has lost 35-24, 12-0. The other two years the team which seemed to have a significant advantage won.

Yes last year #4UT beat #12UM (38-37). However the year before a #5UT lost to a #12WSU(20-28. Year before #9UT beat #25 LSU (35-20). That's a 3-4 record in big games with wins as #2 vs an unranked, #4 vs #12, and #9 vs #25.

On the other hand let's look at PC. 3-0 in bowls as #1 vs #3 (51-19), #1/2 vs #4 (28-14), and #5 vs #3 (38-17). USC has 1 loss in three years, 3 losses in 4 years by a total of 13 points.

What do you find more impressive? Who do you want coaching?

The Big 12 has performed better than expected. That doesn't change the fact Big-12 doesn't have a lot of explosive offenses.

UT does have a good defense, I'm in not saying they don't. The USC offense, however, is much better than anything UT faced in the Big-12.

A home game is an advantage. USC knows the field, it will be how they like it (no 3" of grass like at ND), they will be used to LA, their home game rituals, etc. There are a ton of tiny aspects that are advantageous to USC, no matter how you want to slice it.

[MyTurn2Raise]

After weighing the arguments, I concede an advantage to USC coaching.

Home field I do not concede

LA fans are wussy
Texas fans are not

Texas played in that same Rose Bowl last year and left with good feelings and are used to getting ready for the game
Though it wasn't the title game, it was very important for the Longhorns