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#281
11-17-2005, 07:05 AM
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Re: Confusion
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] The JJ guy on the other hand has to bet in the dark all the way to the end [/ QUOTE ] Huh? Flop comes AKQ. So he has to bet all three streets? [/ QUOTE ] Everyone is arguing that JJ is 55% favorite, but that's only the case if both hands are going to the river all the time. If JJ is starting to fold, then the overall numbers change. That's exactly the problem with the hand. There are 3 possible overcards out and going to the river all the time with JJ is simply a bad play. AKQ flop is just an example. 
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#282
11-17-2005, 07:30 AM
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one final point from me
Given Mason's assumptions, here is the hierarchy of best hands:
#1: JJ when AQs folds ($55) #2: JJ when AQs calls ($40) #3: AQs when AQs calls ($15) #4: AQs when AQs folds ($0)
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#284
11-17-2005, 07:43 AM
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Re: Analysis
[ QUOTE ]
This is exactly right and may be a point that is confusing many. If Player A, who holds the ace-queen suited, chooses to fold, his expectation from that point on zero. If he chooses to play, and perhaps follows the strategy I outlined and it gives him a positive expectation from that point on, then that positive expectation must come from somewhere. In this case it can only come from Player B who holds the jacks. Thus Player B's expectation is now negative from that point on. [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] This is so wrong Mason, as I have said before the player with AQs only has a positive expectation with the $110 call because of the dead money in the pot. If there were no blinds and JJ opened for $110 then the expected value of AQs calling the bet is -EV. His +EV is not coming from the player with JJ. [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] You're 100 percent correct. But if he folds, all that money goes to Player B. I am saying the same thing. MM [/ QUOTE ] This was the question: [ QUOTE ] The question is regardless as to whether it is right or wrong to call the raise, if you do go ahead and call it, which hand would you now rather have. [/ QUOTE ] Your argument that the preflop call by AQs is +EV and therefore it is better to have AQs in this spot is wrong. (Ironic that you actually used this argument since you originally stated that its not about whether the call by AQs is correct or not). AQs can call the preflop raise and win a small percentage of the dead money in the pot but at the end of the day JJ walks away with most of it. JJ is the best hand to have in this spot. Here is one big difference between NL and Limit players: NL players can fold in big pots. Can you?
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#286
11-17-2005, 08:08 AM
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Elaboration
[ QUOTE ]
I'm sorry, but I have had enough. I'll let others elaborate. MM [/ QUOTE ] I will elaborate: Mason's had enough because his statement that AQs is preferable over JJ in this situation has convincingly been proven to be wrong.
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#287
11-17-2005, 09:02 AM
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Re: Analysis
this is one of the most dissapointing threads i have ever read. either mason communicated his question very very poorly in his first post (less likely) or he got trapped and is backpeddling like a mother [censored] (more likely)
and on top of this he takes a condescending tone with his dissenters?
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#288
11-17-2005, 09:26 AM
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Re: Analysis
[ QUOTE ]
this is one of the most dissapointing threads i have ever read. either mason communicated his question very very poorly in his first post (less likely) or he got trapped and is backpeddling like a mother [censored] (more likely) and on top of this he takes a condescending tone with his dissenters? [/ QUOTE ] It's just another example of "when a genius is certain". I put my money on Mason [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]
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#289
11-17-2005, 10:48 AM
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Re: Analysis
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] this is one of the most dissapointing threads i have ever read. either mason communicated his question very very poorly in his first post (less likely) or he got trapped and is backpeddling like a mother [censored] (more likely) and on top of this he takes a condescending tone with his dissenters? [/ QUOTE ] It's just another example of "when a genius is certain". I put my money on Mason [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] Easy there killer... don't you know EL D is on the list of ten?
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#290
11-17-2005, 10:55 AM
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Re: Analysis
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I'm sorry, but I have had enough. I'll let others elaborate. MM [/ QUOTE ] Mason, no-one is going to elaborate, because no-one has a f'ing clue what you are getting at. JG [/ QUOTE ]
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Linear Mode
