**Official uNL Microbrew thread: September**

[RichAM]

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hmmm...new cardrunners is looking good. I like it alot better than old layout. Looks like some nice giveaways in OCTOBER too.

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[.xxxx.]

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awesome i just found a link to Tilt Season 1 (the only season)

loved this show, wonder why no more seasons

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what material would they have for the next season? A challenge from the ship it holla ballas? There's not a single conflict/resolution plot line left for mainstream television on that show.

The season was great, but I still have the usual rants about poker tv, a need for more insightful inner monologues and showing online poker as a large part of poker played everywhere.

[C4LL4W4Y]

i never watched it. i guess i'll check it out though.

[netstorm]

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@ chomp: in regards to my roll:

"one day you will run so bad that you never thought it was possible"

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Well firstly, I haven't seen you moaning about it too much, so props for that!

I lost 25BI's about 5 months ago, and to be honest, I still don't think I've fully recovered from it. It still haunts me - the sheer brutality of it is impossible to explain to anyone who hasn't gone through it (although, I do admit that there must have been a lot of bad play in there).

But the phrase "one day you will run worse..." certainly is true - you can't believe it until it happens to you.

Anyway, good luck fighting back. Since my huge DS, I haven't seen anything like that kind of bad run, so it DOES end!

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Well, Ive done some moaning, but mostly to Gelford through PMs, as I think he is one of the few who understand the true nature of this game. Perhaps you aswell (and ama probably). The rest in here just whines whenever they go on a 5 BI swing, and are like "ZOMGWTFBBQ IS RUN BAAADDD". People like that annoy me like nothing else. They have maybe played like 100k hands lifetime, which is nothing if you want to talk about variance. So I decided to keep this low profile, and not moan too much about it. Im currently in the process of reviewing all of my hands during the downswing (about 40-50k) and after 4 hours Ive only gone through 10k hands, so it'll take awhile.

There's been times where I wanted to quit, but I've always lived by a motto called

"If it doesn't kill you, it makes you stronger"

So I hope this swing will make me a better player.

Time will tell...

[C4LL4W4Y]

i think if you've played 100k hands, you have a pretty good idea of how this game works. in fact i'd bet only 1/4 of the regulars that come here have played that many hands, if that.

the thing that helps me is a quote from doyle - 'it's all one long session.' if you can't come to grips with that, and you think that you're just sooooo unlucky, you'll be in trouble no matter how many hands you've played.

[C4LL4W4Y]

and net, i'm not necessarily saying that's you.

(btw this post wasn't made to increase my postcount, because i don't care about [censored] like that)

[netstorm]

C4LL4W4Y, I disagree with you there. 100k hands isnt enough. The best players in the world have had 100k breakeven stretches (cts had one I think). The best players in the world also have had 40 BIs downswings. These are players who have over a million hands under their belt, and still improve daily.

Yes, you might be able to understand the basic fundamentals; but there's no way anyone can tell what their true winrate is over 100k hands. Neither can you tell that you know what variance is, and/or say that you've experienced the worst downswing possible, because you simply cant.

In this game, there's about 2,4 million posibilities that 2 cards + the board can come make. You think youve seen it all after 100k hands?

This was not aimed specifically towards you, Its my view about how people on this board think about variance. Thats what I meant with "the nature of the game"

My current downswing is horrible, and I wouldnt wish it upon anyone. But did I post about it? No, because thats the game. Variance makes the fish play and empty their pockets, because every once in awhile, they hit their draw and stack you. Thats poker. (at least, thats what I keep telling myself)

[C4LL4W4Y]

bleh i had a good response typed and my computer froze. all i'll say is that a.) cts plays a higher variance game than a majority of uNLers, so his experiences may not necessarily be attributal to the users of this forum; and b.) 100k hands is enough to understand that you need to be accurate in handreading and range assumptions. it may not be enough to make your graph affect your true winrate, but to me that doesn't even matter. poker's an interesting game because we're supposed to make sure our intentions are good, whereas life is mostly game of results.

also notice i never said anything about winrate; i think it's pretty obvious that nasty downswings or sick heaters can happen pretty sporadically over a sample of say, 3-400k hands.

[munkey]

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@ chomp: in regards to my roll:

"one day you will run so bad that you never thought it was possible"

[/ QUOTE ]


Well firstly, I haven't seen you moaning about it too much, so props for that!

I lost 25BI's about 5 months ago, and to be honest, I still don't think I've fully recovered from it. It still haunts me - the sheer brutality of it is impossible to explain to anyone who hasn't gone through it (although, I do admit that there must have been a lot of bad play in there).

But the phrase "one day you will run worse..." certainly is true - you can't believe it until it happens to you.

Anyway, good luck fighting back. Since my huge DS, I haven't seen anything like that kind of bad run, so it DOES end!

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, Ive done some moaning, but mostly to Gelford through PMs, as I think he is one of the few who understand the true nature of this game. Perhaps you aswell (and ama probably). The rest in here just whines whenever they go on a 5 BI swing, and are like "ZOMGWTFBBQ IS RUN BAAADDD". People like that annoy me like nothing else. They have maybe played like 100k hands lifetime, which is nothing if you want to talk about variance. So I decided to keep this low profile, and not moan too much about it. Im currently in the process of reviewing all of my hands during the downswing (about 40-50k) and after 4 hours Ive only gone through 10k hands, so it'll take awhile.

There's been times where I wanted to quit, but I've always lived by a motto called

"If it doesn't kill you, it makes you stronger"

So I hope this swing will make me a better player.

Time will tell...

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Haha - netstorm you sound just like me the past 2 months [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]
including the kanye west quote I tell myself LOL [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

-I'm about 24k breakeven now in total and this month hasn't gone well -I've played a few big pots[with 1pair in 3bet badly???] and will be posting end of this month but i've lost alot big pots to coolers/vs big draws donks pick up on the turn.

When you stove as many hands and ranges as I have recently you come to realise almost all AI hands are 55/45 -80/20 -well except the numerous undersets I've hit.

Sometime it's goot to load Netteller and look @ how much i've made or look @ old PT months to compare, but as soon as I hit an upswing I'll jack up the volume and be back on the gravy train. I just hope it doesn;t last too long as i'm sure to be regaining old leaks and I've become more nitty.

BTW I've played a little with you on PTY so I know you're one of the better players what little I've played with you.

[whyzze]

I dont think its possible to get your true winrate while playing micro stakes. If you spend enough hands down here to uncover your true winrate then you are a breakeven player.

I say his because we shold all be improving while building a roll. We all acknowledge that it will take a ton of hands to find your winrate, but when you are playing microstakes I htink the more important thing to consider is the rate of change of your winrate. You are playin down here to build a roll and improve. Even during a downswing/breakeven you shold be improving.

The best way to get out of downswing is to work on playing better poker and improve the true winrate. The higher your true winrate the shorter your breakeven stretches should statiscally be.

I dont think I explained my thoughts very well, but I just want to add that my true winrate from 4 months ago should be lower than my true winrate is now. So if I jumble all those hands together it tells me absolutely nothing. If I can pinpoint the rate of change then that is more valuable.