*official 2007 red sox thread*

[Kneel B4 Zod]

[ QUOTE ]
saving 3 million a year by using ellsbury instead of crisp isn't going to land you anything, unless you want to play mark loretta in LF or something.

[/ QUOTE ]

the difference in 08/09 is more like $5m per year. alone that doesn't buy you much, but it's $5m you can include on top of other money. it's something.

Sure, Coco will be better than Ellsbury next year, but Arod would literally be twice as good as Lowell. if you can give up a little here to help you get a lot somewhere else, you do it I think.

[NT!]

you don't need to get rid of coco to afford a-rod. and even if you did need to do it, it would be pretty dumb because you're not even guaranteed to get him, and if you do get him it will be a huge ridiculous deal where you totally overpay for a guy who is a known headcase coming to the only media city worse than NYC and on the wrong side of 30.

i would enjoy seeing arod in a sox uniform but john henry doesn't need to cut or trade half his team to do it. the red sox could probably double their payroll and still show a profit.

people are so sure we should let lowell walk, but if you can resign him to the same deal next year, how many FA CI's are going to give you better value? i can think of a few (A-Rod, Texeira) but they are not going to be easy to sign.

[NT!]

[ QUOTE ]


we still have manny why would we have someone like Mark Loretta (who was an IF btw) playing there..

[/ QUOTE ]

i was responding to the post i quoted in which someone said we should buy a big bat corner outfielder with coco's money. i was pointing out that coco's money won't buy you much.

of course you wouldn't want to play mark loretta in LF, that's the point.

the bigger point that people don't get is that the sox want to keep payroll down, but they don't have to. if they want to become big crazy free agent spenders, they can afford it. so it's not an either/or situation.

[CocoaKrispies]

[ QUOTE ]

people are so sure we should let lowell walk, but if you can resign him to the same deal next year, how many FA CI's are going to give you better value? i can think of a few (A-Rod, Texeira) but they are not going to be easy to sign.

[/ QUOTE ]

Teixiera may give you better numbers, but not necessarily better value, considering the size contract that he's going to want. Also, it'd be a sizable defensive downgrade moving Youk back to 3b (he's become an above-average defensive 1b).

That being said, I don't really want to see Arod here next year. I'd like to see them re-sign Lowell and save some money for a power-hitting LF to replace Manny after next season. The current players all seem to want him back pretty badly too. The real question is who can we go after to replace Manny? Defense doesn't really matter in Fenway LF, but I don't know what big hitters are FA (or available for trade for Manny) next year.

[Kneel B4 Zod]

[ QUOTE ]
the red sox could probably double their payroll and still show a profit.

[/ QUOTE ]

we really have no idea how profitable or unprofitable they are

[ QUOTE ]
people are so sure we should let lowell walk, but if you can resign him to the same deal next year, how many FA CI's are going to give you better value?

[/ QUOTE ]

Youk would give you a much better value at 3b than Lowell. Lowell is 33 and having a career year, I think any kind of money to him is a mistake.

[kyleb]

you can't trade coco. you will get no value out of him. NT is absolutely right.

[NT!]

[ QUOTE ]

Youk would give you a much better value at 3b than Lowell. Lowell is 33 and having a career year, I think any kind of money to him is a mistake.

[/ QUOTE ]

youk would probably give you more value than lowell at 3b next year, but it's not a landslide or anything. but if you move him to 3b you have to sign a CI (like i said) to play 1B. in other words, you need to sign a 1B who is better than youkilis (or maybe right around the same if it's a good contract, which it won't be) so that Lowell + Youk < Youk + new guy.

[zer0]

free agent 1bman:
Sean Casey (34)
Tony Clark (36)
Adam Dunn (28) - $13MM club option for '08
Darin Erstad (34) - $3.5MM club option for '08
Scott Hatteberg (38) - $1.85MM club option for '08
Ryan Klesko (37)
Mike Lamb (33)
Doug Mientkiewicz (34)

free agent 3bman:
Pedro Feliz (33)
Mike Lamb (32)
Mike Lowell (34)
Alex Rodriguez (32) - Has ability to opt out of contract after season

[gehrig]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
also guys like ellsbury that just put the ball in play every plate appearance dont lose as much when they jump up a level

[/ QUOTE ]

huh?

.314 / .390 /.426 in the minors... he's got nearly a 1:1 K:BB. are you trying to say 'Low SLG guys who don't strike out much?' because he has always had a good walk rate

[/ QUOTE ]
his walk rate is pretty average, he doesnt strike out and he doesnt hit home runs

its just an extension of the DIPS pitching stuff. major league pitchers are better than AAA pitchers because they have better k/bb/hr rates

you can also extend it to mean that if ellsbury and hinske are the same quality of hitter overall, you would rather have hinske vs daniel cabrera and ellsbury vs k-rod

[NT!]

isn't texeira a FA next season too?

anyway, there are precisely two guys on that list that are more interesting than Lowell, and the Reds will probably exercise that option for 08 rather than let Dunn walk and get nothing for him.