Party Blackjack - kickass Promo

[TheBloke]

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I don't think anyone is saying party doesn't read 2+2. Just that you have to be very naive to think they didn't realize 2+2 would be all over this promo to begin with.


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No, we are not naive. It is Party who were naive, as they clearly didn't think that. There were incredibly naive in even running the promo. If this could be a profitable promo it would be run frequently by a lot of casinos - it has certainly been offered by some casinos in the past (2+ years ago). The fact that it isn't any more should show you that in today's world of bonus hunting, it simply is not viable.

For some reason, Party thought differently. They thought they could run this and make money. That was really dumb. Assuming multi-tabling and $100/hand betting, this was worth about $6k in EV per high-bankroll advantage gambler. Maybe $5k taking into account mistakes, and to be conservative. 2+2 could easily bring 1000 of those people. That's $5m that Party could lose. That's one hell of a loss-leader. You really think that a 3 day promo could bring in more than $5m of new lifetime revenue from donks? And even if the cost of 2+2 was just $1m, it's still not going to be recooped.

So Party screwed up big time here. Sadly the presence of 2+2 (and probably some other public message boards, though few are as dangerous as 2+2) caused them to realise their stupidity, and it will never be offered again. Basically 2+2 serves as a huge beacon for any casino that makes a promo mistake - here you all stand, publically waving banners declaring "You screwed up and we're going to take you for every penny we can!" So they learn real fast. Good if you enjoy helping casinos, not so good if you want to make some money.

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Do you *really* think this is the only forum in the Universe?


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No.

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The only msg board dedicated to talking about +EV casino bonuses?


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No.

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How many other sites do you think we're talking about this promo this week? 10? 100? More?


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Could be.

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Do you also think PartyGamingPLC, a worldwide and publicly traded firm with market cap ~ $8bn has it's actions determined by a few dozen posters on THIS particular thread?


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Quite possibly, yes. And if they didn't, they should have.

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That you know more about marketing +EV bonuses than they do?


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In this case, certainly. I could have told them for absolute certain that a 2:1 BJ promo advertised to all on their website would lose them money, and I would have been right.

In general, yes often I know more than the average exec. I don't see the figures they do, but I see the trends and the patterns and what bonuses last and what bonuses disappear after a day, in a way that most individual casinos obviously do not understand. I say obviously because I see a promotion at Casino A that fails after 3 days then I see a similar disaster at Casino B a few months later. If I ever decide to start my own casino, I will be confident that I can design profitable (for me) promotions. A 2:1 BJ promo certainly wouldn't be on my list.

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That Party only looks at posts on this thread and not the literally, hundreds of other msg boards and blogs and sites and etc that discuss this stuff on a daily basis?


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What they care care about is when a site with tens of thousands of profitable poker players with high bankrolls and lots of time on their hands are exposed to their promotion in a way that ensures they will all take it with maximum force and maximum advantage.

As a matter of fact, I can't find much talk about this promo anywhere but 2+2. No doubt there are pockets of discussion, maybe even a couple of threads on other bigish sites. But this thread is the one that would scare them. That's why we're posting about it here. If I thought other forums were doing more harm, I would be wasting my time over there rather than here.

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What you post can never be considered 'the truth,' I note you throw that word around as if what you think is de facto true because it's your opinion. Good times.


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Your arrogance astounds me. I would never assume to tell you anything about poker because I know little and you (presumably) know a lot. Why then you feel that you must know more about casino and the workings of their promotions is strange. We know what kills bonuses, and we know numerous tangible examples of where a bonus ran for X months and then died 2 days after a howto guide was posted on 2+2. This example is the most flagrant yet, where a highly EV promo died before it even began. As Izverg said, no we can't prove that 2+2 was the sole driver in the decision, and it may even have been that it wasn't. But the undeniable fact is that these posts will reduce EV. 2+2 kills casino EV! Again and again! It is simply too big.

It's still bemusing to me that everyone here gets so upset at the suggestion that public silence would bring more EV. It's not like we're suggesting you shouldn't hit the promo, or even that you shouldn't tell people about it. Just that you shouldn't post about it here, and if it is posted, you shouldn't add to it. You call yourself advantage players, you come to this forum to improve your money-making skills, and yet when you are given cast iron advice as to how to improve EV in a particular area, you laugh and sneer. I suppose the reason for your anger could be that most of you wouldn't have known about this had it not been posted here. So you fear that if next time it's not posted, you'll miss out. Well this time it was posted and you still missed out, so perhaps you could bring yourselves to try the other method next time.

The irony of this 'debate' is that, if online casino bonuses just appeared today, and I came to this forum to tell you all about it, I would very likely be told "you're a retard, that's BS, casinos are a mugs game".

Good times.

[BearHustler]

Good post TheBloke.

I think this:

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I suppose the reason for your anger could be that most of you wouldn't have known about this had it not been posted here. So you fear that if next time it's not posted, you'll miss out.

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Is spot on.

However, a lot of great bonuses like the crypto monthly's and the 888.com 100% signup have been posted about and abused forever by hit-and-run bonus whores, but they continue to exist.

You, as an apparent expert on casino bonuses, might notice that good bonuses are dying, the average poker player doesn't. So we don't care if we scare the casino's, because casino bonuses are just a little extra we pick up now and then. We pick up some bonuses along the way, things that aren't too complicated, that aren't too risky, and that don't involve too much research.

Since there is always poker, we don't care about casino bonuses enough to put lots of time and effort into them. So don't be shocked or amazed if we laugh at the consequences of publicly discussing them. If we don't use these forums for finding them, they might as well not exist.

[TheBloke]

Bear, thank you very much. That is the first reasoned post I have seen from anyone since I posted in this thread.

I accept your points, in particular "If we don't use these forums for finding them, they might as well not exist. " Yes I can understand that they mean little to you, and it's no skin off your nose if they happen to die. I also understand that many probably take exception to casino players coming here and telling you you're doing it all wrong - tho I hope the majority of us tried to do it in a reasonable way.

I know that ultimately what I say will have little effect, I've just been ranting in the hope that maybe a few people will think "if this BJ promo hadn't been posted to 2+2, and I had found out about it for myself and kept it quiet, I would have made $2k/hr in EV" That would be beneficial to them, and it would be beneficial to me.

I realise it's a long shot, but I thought it worth a few posts; and was then galvanized into much more verbose arguments by the infantile responses I got.

Anyway, I'm done here and won't trouble you people again (tho maybe I'll continue taking a few potshots at Internet Bonuses, FWIW.) Thanks again for your post.

[w_alloy]

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The only thing I disagree with that Iz or Bloke said is Izverg's reference to all the 30k+ bankrolls here at zoofagland. I think most of you guys are d!ckless p*ssies who still grind out low-mid levels and think you are great because you suck Sklansky's c0ck.


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Heads up for bankrolls? And lol @ you thinking all 2+2 forums are created equal.

And to thebloke and the Izberg or w/e: You guys win this thread.

[ESKiMO-SiCKNE5S]

why the hell are people arguing in this thread?!?

could someone cliffnote me it all cause its at tl;dr status.

also so the promo is perma-down? whats party doing to replace? anyone know?

[SergiyK]

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Seriously, when was the last time a casino ran a 2:1 BJ promotion?

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Earlier this year. Lasted for months. Never posted on 2+2.

I don't know what else can be said to those whom Izverg and Thebloke did not convince. The worst thing is that we are not dealing with a handful of knowledgeable guys, who know a lot about bonuses and like to share the information. It’s just a matter of volume; out of 1000 people with little understanding of this business one or two would always run into good promotions accidentally and post it here. Even if they are convinced not to do it anymore, another two out of another 1000 will replace them.

Party’s promo was doomed from the day it was announced. Reputable casino, easy terms, announced on the web site. I don’t see how it would not appear on 2+2.

This forum itself is dangerous, not the poor guy who posted this bonus here.

[yvesaint]

lol wtf does "zoofag" mean

[Wools]

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lol wtf does "zoofag" mean

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A drunken Chinese tourist says he bit a panda who attacked him after he jumped into a zoo enclosure to "hug" the bear.

Zhang Xinyan, 35, had drunk four draught beers before deciding to enter the Beijing Zoo pen belonging to six-year-old male panda Gu Gu.

The startled Gu Gu bit both legs of his intruder, who responded by biting "the panda on its back", Mr Zhang was quoted by state media as saying.

Mr Zhang said he had not realised pandas could be violent.

He told the Beijing Morning Post that he had come to the Chinese capital "only to see the pandas".

"The seven-hour train ride was exhausting, and I drank bottles of beer when I arrived then had a nap," he added.

Punishment

The newspaper said Mr Zhang had a "sudden urge" to touch Gu Gu with his hand, so he jumped over the waist-high railing into the enclosure.

"When he got closer and was undiscovered, he reached out to hug it," the newspaper added.

Mr Zhang was bitten first on his right leg, and then on his left.

Newspaper photographs showed him lying on a hospital bed with blood-soaked bandages over his legs.

"I bit the panda on its back but its fur was too thick," Mr Zhang recalled.

He went on: "No one ever said they would bite people. I just wanted to touch it."

Zoo spokeswoman Ye Mingxia said the panda was unharmed and they were not considering punishing Mr Zhang yet.

"He's suffered quite a bit of a shock," she told the Associated Press by telephone.

[TheBloke]

I do agree SergiyK. Casino bonus discussion across the net has reached a saturation point which is killing bonuses at a great rate. 2+2 exemplifies this because of its size, and its userbase.

That said the 'poor guy' who posted it here is, I believe, a knowledgeable guy who understands casinos and, in my opinion, should have known better. There is a reasonable chance it might not have surfaced on 2+2 without him posting - certainly it reached the Internet Bonus thread only as a crosspost of here. Of all the places to post it, this forum seems particularly dangerous as it has, based on my very brief read through, a higher than average bankroll and ability level, certainly higher than Internet Bonus and Internet Gambling.

Anyway, what's done is done, let's hope next time an insane promotion comes up it's either not so widely posted, or else the casino in question is insane enough not to notice.

[SergiyK]

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You, as an apparent expert on casino bonuses, might notice that good bonuses are dying, the average poker player doesn't. So we don't care if we scare the casino's, because casino bonuses are just a little extra we pick up now and then. We pick up some bonuses along the way, things that aren't too complicated, that aren't too risky, and that don't involve too much research.

Since there is always poker, we don't care about casino bonuses enough to put lots of time and effort into them. So don't be shocked or amazed if we laugh at the consequences of publicly discussing them. If we don't use these forums for finding them, they might as well not exist.

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Interesting thoughts. I am wondering how you guys would react if someone wrote a powerful poker bot and gave out a three-month trial out to everybody on this and other forums. Or even widely advertized it on TV. A bot quick to install, hard to detect, easy $10/hr/computer for anyone.

When confronted by a bunch of poker players who lost their profits he would say he does not care since he does not make money playing poker, he makes money writing bots. What would you say?