Donkey Test

[Fiepoto]

5/10 NL. $1,000 stacks. One player limps in early, you limp in late with:
4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]


SB folds and BB checks. Flop is:
4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]


BB bets $30, limper folds, you raise to $100. BB thinks and re-raises to $400.

The BB is very tight and generally shows down very strong hands. He's playing about 15% of his hands and raising about 5%, and is reasonable in his aggression on the flop. What is your best move?

[jasonfish11]

As far as question 31 goes. No one thinks he would 4 bet KK most of the time? Is calling a 3 bet with KK a better play than 4 betting preflop?

I could see him having 44 here or AK (even though it is very unlikely). I would say most of the time he would have QQ or JJ but those arent my choices.

[KipBond]

[ QUOTE ]
As far as question 31 goes. No one thinks he would 4 bet KK most of the time? Is calling a 3 bet with KK a better play than 4 betting preflop?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I think he would.

[ QUOTE ]
I could see him having 44 here or AK (even though it is very unlikely).

[/ QUOTE ]

No way he's not raising anywhere on the flop, turn, or river if that's the case.

[ QUOTE ]
I would say most of the time he would have QQ or JJ but those arent my choices.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I agree. So, of the choices, KK is most likely.

[Davdob]

I cant see how you fold in question 33. You played 44 on the hope you would hit a set. You got a great flop, and now you are going to get scared off by someone betting into you?

Sure, he might have 55 or 77, but there is a fair chance that he would have raised from the BB with either of these hands since you limped in late. If I were in that position, I would hate to let a guy with KT or A8 or other random crap that might limp there get the overcard that will turn my best hand into garbage for free.

Moreover, since this was a free flop for him, we basically have to assume he started with a completely random hand. Just by pure statistics he is far more likely to have hit 2 pair here than three of a kind here, and his betting could indicate he was holding 75 (it would be a bit aggressive with 74 or 54). Alternatively he could be slow playing a big pair, but that seems a remote possibility.

Our dream scenario is he hit 2 pair and now is going to aggressively bet into our set, and I think there is a far better than 50/50 chance that is exactly what is happening.

So, if we are going to raise with this amount of money already invested, go all in and stack him.

[KipBond]

[ QUOTE ]
The BB is very tight and generally shows down very strong hands. He's playing about 15% of his hands and raising about 5%, and is reasonable in his aggression on the flop. What is your best move?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a hard question to me. What is "reasonable in his aggression on the flop" mean exactly? Is he going to 3-bet 40% of his stack with 2-pair or an over pair? That doesn't seem very reasonable to me. He's not going to fold any hand that is better than ours now. So, does he think we would fold a set here, and by representing the straight get us to fold a better hand? In low-limit games, you'll see people doing this with 2 pair & over pairs. Does our opponent suck? Or does he think we suck? I'm not sure. I voted fold, with the assumption that our opponent is good, and thinks that we will not fold a set here. But, I could be wrong. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[jasonfish11]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I could see him having 44 here or AK (even though it is very unlikely).

[/ QUOTE ] No way he's not raising anywhere on the flop, turn, or river if that's the case.


[/ QUOTE ]

I was really just talking about his preflop action. But yes I agree he would have raised sometime with those hands.

[AKQJ10]

Just to play Devil's Advocate, although I find Davdob's reasoning to be generally sound, this first paragraph strikes me like nails on a blackboard:

[ QUOTE ]
I cant see how you fold in question 33. You played 44 on the hope you would hit a set. You got a great flop, and now you are going to get scared off by someone betting into you?

[/ QUOTE ]

Your preflop expectations only matter when tempered with the additional information that has come in on the flop.

In other words, if asked to estimate the probability that a flopped set of fours would win the pot preflop, you might have said 80%. But you didn't have a good deal of information that you now have: that the flop was moderately coordinated and that the tight player reraised you on the flop. So making a decision based on your preflop hopes of hitting a set is a very poor way to make the decision. In other words, often in poker you get what you thought you were looking for, but later events imply that you weren't really looking for it after all.

[ QUOTE ]
If I were in that position, I would hate to let a guy with KT or A8 or other random crap that might limp there get the overcard that will turn my best hand into garbage for free.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't get this. A8 is drawing at a six, which isn't an overcard. KT is drawing dead against a set. What's this about overcards?

Now to Q33 itself....
That philosophical quibble aside, I think I favor calling over raising. You're quite plausibly behind, but only 2:1 to draw out on a straight. You're also quite plausibly ahead of two pair, or a little less plausibly of an overpair. And a good tight/aggressive player might play something like 66 (or even K6) in this fashion if he thinks he has fold equity. Meanwhile, you yourself have very little fold equity, because you certainly won't get any overset or better to fold getting 2:1 and all-in. It probably doesn't scare out two pair either, but if so then that's a major drawback to pushing.

It might be right to push rather than call here, but it's not clear to me why pushing is much better. Seems to me that all the money's going in once you've committed to not folding regardless, and I don't think folding can be right.

OTOH, calling leaves you pretty much committed to call off the rest of your stack on the turn regardless of what hits (even an 8 or 3), so you might as well push now. I really don't see any tangible different between pushing and calling.

Hell, go ahead and minreraise. At least it makes you look like more of a donkey at a time where it doesn't matter one iota. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Davdob]

Some of my issue is that I have much more of a tournament poker mind set, and that isnt necesarrily good for this type of problem. But from that perspective, this is one of those strike while the iron is hot situations. More conservative reasoning would almost certainly be in order in a N/L Ring game (which after all is what this question is about). Still, you have to take advantage where you find it. I dont at all disagree with you philosophically though. His post flop betting suddenly has made your dream of a big set a possible nightmare, and it would be completely ignorant not to think through the possibility you are beat. I was engaging in a bit (a lot?) of hyperbole that you also shouldnt underestimate the power of your set. Make sure your action is dictated by probability not worst case scenario thinking.

On the other point (and again this may be tournament poker thinking), I am trying to imagine what kind of hands might limp in late position. The majority by far in most games seem to be someone holding someone like A8 or KT. Now if I am holding 55 on the button and he is holding A8, if I let him see a free flop and it comes with an A or an 8 but no 5 (about a 33% chance), I am smoked and the hand is done for me. Even though winning $25 with a raise pre flop might not be a super gain, its better than getting absolutely nothing, which you are running a substantial risk of if you let this guy see free cards. I would certainly put in a 4-5bb raise from the big blind if I saw someone in LP limp in if I had 55 or 77, and this is what leads me to conclude a larger set probably isnt what he is holding.

The big scare here is he hit a straight, and Im not entirely sure I have given that enough credence, but on the balance I still think the right play is to put him to the test and accept your fate if he has.

If folding isnt right, I dont think you can call. If he is semi bluffing with an overpair the two high pair or a straight draw, make him make his final decision now before he has a chance to make the decision with more information. And, if you are going to raise, given the amount in the pot, the only credible raise is all in.

[Fiepoto]

5/10 NL. $1,200 stacks. A tight/passive player limps in early. Folded to you in the BB. You hold:
K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

You raise to $40. The early position limper calls. Flop:
2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

You bet $60. The limper calls. Turn:
K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

You bet $140. The limper raises to $280. You call. River:
9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]


You check. The limper moves all-in for $875.

[Davdob]

Still obsessing on 33, because Kip shook my confidence --

Someone slap me hard because I am going to try to do math.

Even if he has a straight in question 33, we are roughly 33% to win.

If he has the high two pair (going to just assume for simplicity this is the very minimum he would three bet with), we have an 81% chance to win.

If you assume there is a 50% chance he has the straight, and that he would never fold the 2 high pair, a push would be a -$40ev play. So, this problem really boils down to how often you think he is playing the straight here. Given the massive emphasis on tightness that KipBond pointed out in the question, it may well be that the "correct" answer here is to fold. But it is certainly a close call.