**Offical uNL Microbrew thread: October**

[olliepower]

How much is a reasonable ammount to expect to win at 25NL 6 max. Maybe 1.5$/100 hands?

[delta k]

we had soem history

Converted by PokerGeek
Absolute NL Hold'em Ring - 0.50/0.50
Blinds (4 handed)

Starting Stacks
Seat 2: Big blind ($126.57)
Seat 3: CO ($20.20)
Seat 5: Button ($32.20)
Seat 6: Small blind (Hero) ($47.10)

Preflop: Hero is Small blind with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
CO calls ($0.50), <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero raises ($2.50), Big blind calls ($2), CO folds

Flop: ($5.5) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero bets ($3.50), Big blind raises ($7), Hero raises ($18.50), Big blind calls ($11.50)

Turn: ($46) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero all-in ($26.10), Big blind calls ($26.10)

River: ($72.1) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(0 players)</font>


Final Pot: $92.7

Results not shown

his 22 is no good no mo'

[carnivalhobo]

[ QUOTE ]
How much is a reasonable ammount to expect to win at 25NL 6 max. Maybe 1.5$/100 hands?

[/ QUOTE ]

that isnt bad but more like 4-5$/100 is possible.

[neverforgetlol]

i was $4.5/100 over 17K hands so yeah that's possible.

[dawade]

Anyone here interested in some strategy discussion on AIM?

I'm moving back to NL ring games and I'd love to chat with some folks here.

My screen name is dawade.

[kazana]

[ QUOTE ]
That's why I'm a nit at NL50 then - check this out

I'm itching to play NL100 now - with my redepsoit bonus sson I'll be superrolled and ready to start making a proper thrust to NL100 permanence.

At the beginning of the month I was seriously considering saying at NL50 for longer and not move up for ages - but I think I should at least take a little 3buyin shot.

Lets see what happens...

[/ QUOTE ]
Be warned, people don't fold more often at 100NL - if anything they're more likely to gambool with draws.
I got flushed out of 100NL after a nasty downswing. I didn't do good the 3k hands up to the run, but then lost 6 buyins within a couple of hundered hands. The majority of them after pushing as favourite and losing to draws.
I just decided to move back down for a rebuild, after cashing out my initial deposit sum (uncertain about poker future). So now I'm freerolling, yeeehaaww

[Freelancer]

I was 22 ptb/100 at party 25$ over 3.8k hands.
And 12 ptb/100 at stars 25$ over 4.4k hands.

Now I'm running 2 ptb/100 over 5k hands at 50$. I had a bit of break even period. Namely the first 4k hands. I'm still waiting for my colossal downswing (yeah I'd say I've been running hot)...


Note; I also had a history before I got PT at 25$ where I ran at (guessing) about 5 ptb over 3k hands or so.
1 ptb/100=.5$/100 at 25$ nl.

[munkey]

I'v never had a really high winrate -
6max NL25 was 7.7PTBB/100 when I 1st switched to 6max but at NL50 lst month I was breakeven over 15k hands - that wasn't flat that was up and back down for 10k hands then breakeven for 5k.

Despite all this PT shows 5ptbb/100 over all NL50 so it can't be that bad. This month a couple of buyins lost to overpairs beating my sets my winrate would be 8+.
Variance is HUGE over the short term and has more impact than most people who have only played a few 1000 hands realise.


(BTW I think one of my leaks is extracting value with marginal hands so the effect of variance on my win rate is probably to have more breakeven moments. )

[Freelancer]

[ QUOTE ]
(BTW I think one of my leaks is extracting value with marginal hands so the effect of variance on my win rate is probably to have more breakeven moments. )

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd take more value + variance any day over less value and less variance.


And yeah, variance is a huge deal while your still counting around 10k hands. I ain't that good so I'm guessing I'm around 5ptbb/100, and as I said I'm still waiting for my serious downswing. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[munkey]

Thats where alot of lst months buyins went - 3bet AI with sets and combo draws on the flop...

[ QUOTE ]

I'd take more value + variance any day over less value and less variance.


[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure I quite agree with you there.
I won't take every potentially EV play for more value with more variance. E.g. I won't coniflip 1/2 stack with say 99
vs an opponent thats pushing AI alot - high variance and yes prob. EV but I'll choose a more EV spot and stack him with TPNK.

When I meant marginal value spots I mean like TT when K lands on the turn or the river is a yucky card and I can't bet as much (or so I think) because I doubt villan will call.

I did c/r AI today with 88 vs a turn PSB (I had a read [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] )
so I don't mind variance as long as it figures to be a good play.