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#211
07-31-2006, 02:30 AM
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Re: WSOP Main Event Day 1C Sweat
[ QUOTE ]
Thorsson Eliminates Another William Thorsson raises to $700 from the cut off and the button re-raises to $1,200. The small blind makes a third raises to $3,500. Thorsson re-raises $7,000 more and the small blind calls. The flop comes A22 and the small blind checks and Thorsson moves all-in for $100,000. The small blind makes the call after 2 minutes of deliberation and shows K-K. Thorsson taps the table and says "Wow," and sheepishly shows his 75. The turn is a 3 and the river a 4 giving Thorsson the wheel. Thorsson now sits with $125,000. W T F....... This guy is like the new Tiffany Williamson. Maniac version. [/ QUOTE ] Jesus... 
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#212
07-31-2006, 02:34 AM
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Re: WSOP Main Event Day 1C Sweat
[ QUOTE ]
I really sidetracked this thread accidentally. At least Jean-Robert Bellande has been eliminated. Anybody know anything about how he plays? [/ QUOTE ] I think I read somewhere that he plays bad [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
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#213
07-31-2006, 02:45 AM
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Re: WSOP Main Event Day 1C Sweat
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I still want to know where the 50% came from [/ QUOTE ] .7 x .7 = .49 = 49% =~ 50% [/ QUOTE ] Technically, 1 - .7*.7 = .51
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#214
07-31-2006, 02:45 AM
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Re: WSOP Main Event Day 1C Sweat
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I still want to know where the 50% came from [/ QUOTE ] Chance of being eliminated: .30 + (.7 * .3) = .51 In back to back 70/30 situations, you'll be eliminated 30% the first time. In the 70% of the times survive, you'll be eliminated 30% of the time (.7 *.3). So, in two back to back 70/30 hands, you are likely to be knocked out of the tournament. [/ QUOTE ] So flipping coins head/tails 50/50 two times... head=.5+(.5*.5)=0.75 tails=.5+(.5*.5)=.75 ??? [/ QUOTE ] youre basing this off the fact that your stack will be covered after you win the first 70/30.
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#215
07-31-2006, 02:46 AM
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Re: WSOP Main Event Day 1C Sweat
OUT.
Totally card dead after the first break. I flopped three sets the first two hours- 33 that got no action, 44 the very next hand the filled up and got a few chips, and then 44 on a 4-5-7 flop where my flop bet got called and I was headsup on the turn which filled me up with a 7 and I checked. ooops. River was a 5 and I was counterfeited and folded to a bet. Only mistake I think I made tonight was folding to Colson10's squeeze play right before the dinner break. That was conservative and I think weak-tight. this tourney was very meh. btw, Bluff4Rent, Shannon Shorr rolled on my table. This kid is a good player and had been running very well, cashing in the Bellagio 1K three days in a row.
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#216
07-31-2006, 02:48 AM
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Re: WSOP Main Event Day 1C Sweat
[ QUOTE ]
I don't remember Tiffany putting sick beats like that on anyone. It's kind of important to know how much Thorsson's opponent had to call on the flop. It may not have been that big a bluff from Thorsson's perspective. Thorsson is obviously looking to take it down pre-flop. Then, he's hoping the Ace will scare him off. [/ QUOTE ] It can't be much of a bluff at all - there's already at least 17k in the pot (7.7kx2 + 1.2k + at least 500-ish from blinds, assuming 100/200/25). If Thorsson moves in for 100k and ends up with 125k after, villain must have had around 7-8k behind after PF betting. Meaning I'm a bit puzzled why the SB didn't move in, but whatever. Maybe CP has the numbers a bit wrong (can it be).
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#217
07-31-2006, 02:53 AM
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Re: WSOP Main Event Day 1C Sweat
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]  [/ QUOTE ] What is with the gay coke nail. Don't even tell me you aren't doing that on purpose. [/ QUOTE ] LMAO @ you calling it a "gay coke nail." nothing further.
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#218
07-31-2006, 02:58 AM
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Re: WSOP Main Event Day 1C Sweat
I say take the equations and strategy talk to the MTT forum.
Anyway nobody mentioned Raymer doubled up to 16K? looks like he has done well playing semi-short, hanging in there. If he can get a big pot he can become a force.
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#219
07-31-2006, 02:58 AM
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Re: WSOP Main Event Day 1C Sweat
a) lol @ dynasty
b) i played some pretty good poker today. i was up up to 14k, then raised/cbetted/got played back at down to 9k or so. shortly before the dinner break, i got down to ~6k by open-completing my small blind into a very aggressive/terrible player in the BB. he checked. he would raised with basically any face card here. so when the flop comes KQ3, i'm pretty much positive i'm good. but i also know he likes to bet, so i check, he bets, i call. turn J, i check, he bets, i call. river 8, i check, he bets, I call. his 83o is good for a ~6k pot. ni han sir. go to dinner with about 5k. talk to nath and jurollo about amping up the aggression until i get under 15xBB or so because people don't adjust for the antes and you can chip up really well by just stealing the blinds/antes. it works. i chip up to 11k without showing down a hand (including raising A6o preflop, getting called, the guy betting out on a T52 flop and pushing, he folds. get some.). my bustout hand: 100/200/25 level. it folds to me in the small blind with AKo. i raise to 800. BB (terrible/aggressive/sucked out up to an absolute ton of chips) raises to 3600. i push 11k. he waits about 5 seconds and calls with ATo. flop J54. I start to say "it'd be so sweet if a ten doesn't come." as i get to about "doesn't," the dealer turns a ten. i don't hit a K or a Q on the river, and my day is over. would have had a little over 22k with average stack at about 15k. poker is a stupid game for people that hate being happy. i'm gonna turn in early tonight i think and maybe be happy tomorrow. here's hoping.
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