|
|
#191
10-13-2005, 06:44 PM
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Week 6, post 8 (ii)
[ QUOTE ]
I'm aware 34 is a key number, however I already put my entire bet in at ov 33.5. I am suggesting to anyone following my picks that it is still safe to bet ov 35 though at reduced units (check out the respective notes for post 8 and post 8 (ii)). [/ QUOTE ] its *not* ok for them to bet it though. the value is gone, and will never be back. while, most will pay no attention to what i am saying, its key. this game may end up being a 23-20 game and people will say 'well i knew that 1.5pts didn't matter, yet its this same mistake done 100's of times that guarantees people lose in he long run. again, you seem to have a good grasp of how to handicap a game (which i don't, so take my compliment fwiw) but you are underrating the strength of the market. 
|
|
#192
10-13-2005, 06:50 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Week 6, post 8 (ii)
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I'm aware 34 is a key number, however I already put my entire bet in at ov 33.5. I am suggesting to anyone following my picks that it is still safe to bet ov 35 though at reduced units (check out the respective notes for post 8 and post 8 (ii)). [/ QUOTE ] its *not* ok for them to bet it though. the value is gone, and will never be back. while, most will pay no attention to what i am saying, its key. this game may end up being a 23-20 game and people will say 'well i knew that 1.5pts didn't matter, yet its this same mistake done 100's of times that guarantees people lose in he long run. again, you seem to have a good grasp of how to handicap a game (which i don't, so take my compliment fwiw) but you are underrating the strength of the market. [/ QUOTE ] I think you're coming to broad conclusions, Sub. I lowered the units played on account of the move to 35. The value is not gone, it is reduced. There is a clear difference.
|
|
#193
10-13-2005, 06:56 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Week 6, post 8 (ii)
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I'm aware 34 is a key number, however I already put my entire bet in at ov 33.5. I am suggesting to anyone following my picks that it is still safe to bet ov 35 though at reduced units (check out the respective notes for post 8 and post 8 (ii)). [/ QUOTE ] its *not* ok for them to bet it though. the value is gone, and will never be back. while, most will pay no attention to what i am saying, its key. this game may end up being a 23-20 game and people will say 'well i knew that 1.5pts didn't matter, yet its this same mistake done 100's of times that guarantees people lose in he long run. again, you seem to have a good grasp of how to handicap a game (which i don't, so take my compliment fwiw) but you are underrating the strength of the market. [/ QUOTE ] I think you're coming to broad conclusions, Sub. I lowered the units played on account of the move to 35. The value is not gone, it is reduced. There is a clear difference. [/ QUOTE ] The value is GONE. the edge is GONE. Your edge is so minute, that a move of 1.5pts across a key number is ENORMOUS.
|
|
#194
10-13-2005, 07:06 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Week 6, post 8 (ii)
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I'm aware 34 is a key number, however I already put my entire bet in at ov 33.5. I am suggesting to anyone following my picks that it is still safe to bet ov 35 though at reduced units (check out the respective notes for post 8 and post 8 (ii)). [/ QUOTE ] its *not* ok for them to bet it though. the value is gone, and will never be back. while, most will pay no attention to what i am saying, its key. this game may end up being a 23-20 game and people will say 'well i knew that 1.5pts didn't matter, yet its this same mistake done 100's of times that guarantees people lose in he long run. again, you seem to have a good grasp of how to handicap a game (which i don't, so take my compliment fwiw) but you are underrating the strength of the market. [/ QUOTE ] I think you're coming to broad conclusions, Sub. I lowered the units played on account of the move to 35. The value is not gone, it is reduced. There is a clear difference. [/ QUOTE ] The value is GONE. the edge is GONE. Your edge is so minute, that a move of 1.5pts across a key number is ENORMOUS. [/ QUOTE ] I apologize but I'm going bust out some numbers again. Let's say I project a total to go over 33.5 60% of the time (the amount is higher in the case of Mia/TB but that's beside the point) and that this is a 2 unit bet. Assuming a move from 33.5 to 35 takes away 4.5% of the value of the over, I now project over 35 to occur 55.5% of the time. By your thinking, I don't play over 35 at all, despite a +EV scenario, because "the value is gone". In contrast, I reduce the ov 35 play to a 1 unit bet. I suspect there's some kind of simple disconnect here but I'm not certain.
|
|
#195
10-13-2005, 07:07 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Week 6, post 8 (ii)
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I'm aware 34 is a key number, however I already put my entire bet in at ov 33.5. I am suggesting to anyone following my picks that it is still safe to bet ov 35 though at reduced units (check out the respective notes for post 8 and post 8 (ii)). [/ QUOTE ] its *not* ok for them to bet it though. the value is gone, and will never be back. while, most will pay no attention to what i am saying, its key. this game may end up being a 23-20 game and people will say 'well i knew that 1.5pts didn't matter, yet its this same mistake done 100's of times that guarantees people lose in he long run. again, you seem to have a good grasp of how to handicap a game (which i don't, so take my compliment fwiw) but you are underrating the strength of the market. [/ QUOTE ] More ridiculousness. If thats the case, we should all bet our entire bankroll on the under.
|
|
#200
10-13-2005, 07:21 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Week 6, post 8 (ii)
[ QUOTE ]
its pretty simple. you are overestimating your edge. [/ QUOTE ] Fair enough. ed: can't believe I've now posted 500 times in 2 months. If you toss out the 150 pick posts and the 2 weeks I didn't post at all during this time, I'm still left with 350 in 6.5 weeks....ouch.
|
 |
|
|
Linear Mode
