three river call/fold decisions

[Lucky]

1. fold
2. call
3. call

[KaneKungFu123]

Sam,

Whenever you make a tough fold, like hands 2/3, its going to be based heavily on your read. We are giving you textbook answers because all we have to go on is the info you have provided.

Hand 3: If he checks behind KK on turn, then he can also check behind AA or TT right? I think this is a very easy call. He could also easily have AK here.

Hand 2: You said he bluffs often and he could also be value betting.

[KaneKungFu123]

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ty kkf - how do I do use them?

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They are located underneath the textbox.

[BluffTHIS!]

sam,

Although I would agree with what KKF said for most players regarding #1 and #3, there are other considerations that might lead you to believe a different play was in order for certain opponents, and I would play hand #2 differently.

In hand #1, you need to know both how often the opponent would make a desperation move c/r with AK and a flush draw, and also how often he would c/r the turn there with an overpair instead of fearing you were slowplaying him. So the more prone he would be to play AK like that, then the more willing I would be to occasionally call, provided that he isn't also playing an overpair like that.

In hand #2, you have a good hand but certainly not the nuts, and a T with a better kick/set that filled/flush all beat you. So I would often only call, and wouldn't raise, but since the board is both paired and contains a 3 flush and he saw you call the turn, then some consideration has to be given that you are beat and thus indicating a fold. (But I agree with KKF about checking behind in the first place.)

In hand #3, you specify he is very tight and not prone to overplay hands. Thus although I am calling other players, he is the one to consider folding against. He has to put you specifically on an 8 in order to think that he would get action holding TT from any lesser hand, and otherwise I think he would often just try to milk it. So that along with the preflop action makes it more likely for him to have screwed you on the river with KK. And he is the player least likely to ever try to take a worse made hand and make you fold a better one.


Of course being right or wrong in making very close calls and tough laydowns can lead to big swings both positive and negative, and online when multitabling we all tend to make more default decisons. So the most critical component of the read is knowing how an opponent plays/overplays both nut and non-nut hands, and not just bluffs.

[okayplayer]

1. fold . I would deff check behind turn, as I am going to c/r all in on the turn ALOT vs a player such as yourself. I will usually do this with big (made) hands or hands that have alot of outs.

2. call.

3. this is fairly borderline I think vs a tight/nitty opponent, but I ususally find myself not folding sets on boards like this into PFRs. I really think that he would bet AA again on the turn as well as TT (esp against you), but he may get scared with KK and check behind, and may have caught you. So, having time to think about it I would maybe lean towards a fold, but would I fold during the hand? probably not.

[Jason Strasser (strassa2)]

Sam,

Dont like your reasoning in hand 1 for betting the turn. Sure it would be nice to protect your hand, but at what cost? If your opp is good, this may mean he will check-raise you all in and force you into making bad decisions. If your opponent is v straightforward, I like betting the turn to protect your hand, but more importantly to control showdown. I'd like to bet a little less because I feel like a naked high diamond is likely going to CR a bigger bet but may only call a smaller bet and allow you to get to showdown cheaply, while also increasing your equity in the pot (getting more chips in while ahead). I also like betting the turn because your opponent will define his hand fairly well and usually you wont have a tough time making decisions.

Hand 2. Jackal is a good player and a guy I have played with once live in a ny card room. He's tricky and smart.

One thing he doesn't do, though, as some as much as the other big names in that game (bld, lolo) is aggressively value bet me with marginal hands. He has no problem firing the pot with a bluff or firing the pot with the nuts, but it tends to be either or. He's not easy to play against by any means, but I'm fairly sure he would not play a hand like JJ-AA like this. He would likely check-call/check-fold with that type of hand. I'm pretty sure you are ahead of a few hands he might value bet here (I've seen him get out of line preflop with all sorts of stuff, JT T9 T2 blah blah) but definitely not against the whole range or the bulk of the range. I think you need to decide how often he's bluffing like this, then increase your chances of calling a little more based on the fact that he might rarely be vbetting a worse hand. I think most of the time here I look him up, but I'm not sure if that is correct.

Hand 3

Based on your flop/turn combo, the stength of your hand is pretty well concealed. I don't know this player at all, but I think there still have to be hands that he will value raise here that are worse than yours. It's so unlikely you have an 8 here or even QQ based on the action. He might have as worse as AK/AA here with the 8 paired, right? This guy would have to be extremely tight and extremely bad. I dont get away here.

-Jason

[brandofo]

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Your image is the usual...meaning $6M Worldwide Poker Champion

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Couldn't resist.

[ObnxNole]

Hand#1: an easy fold..it looks like he def trying to protect something like 1010-QQ with a diamond. I think a9 with the ace of diamonds is also a possibility here...he knows ur agressive and doesn't want u to outplay him on the river.

Hand #2: Call. Trips is a monster in a reraised pot even with the flush on board looks like AA with or without a spade but its hard to tell. In additon u are getting 3:1 on your call. I don't think he bluffing here but he def has a big hand and wants action.

Hand #3: Geez sam thats tuff... I think I close my eyes and call...is he the type to bet quad Tens on the flop after raising?...probably not given his tight image. KK is def a possibility but I dont think I can fold the second nut boat for $2400 unless I was playing Omaha.

[luckychewy]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Your image is the usual...meaning $6M Worldwide Poker Champion

[/ QUOTE ]
Couldn't resist.

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lol

[samoleus]

Guys, thanks for the replies. I especially liked the analysis from Strassa and BluffThis. KKF also made a very good point that the opponent's tendencies and the flow of the game are very important to the decisions.

I called the all-in in hand #1. I'll explain my logic in a bit, but before I do, let me talk briefly about my decision to bet the turn. The general consensus seems to be that I made a mistake because a lot of players will put me in a difficult situation on the turn. While that is true, I will often allow myself to get in these tough and unpleasant situations if I feel it is +EV to do so. In this particular case, before his check-raise on the turn, I felt like it was most likely by his bet flop, check turn line that he had bet on continuation and had now checked the turn to give up. Since I had the pair of eights, I thought I was good, but I did not want to give a free river, since there are so many cards that can poison my hand. I knew that in doing so, I might have to make a huge decision with a marginal hand, but I was willing to do so.

OK, after the check-raise, it is time to put him on a hand. Here was my thought process. He was the preflop raiser and he had pretty decent opening standards. ... Now what hands can he have that beat me?

Flush? I didn't think so. I felt like if he had a big flush, he would undoubtedly want to get value out of it, and he wouldn't blow me off the hand by raising so much. If he had a small flush, he would almost certainly protect his hand with a turn lead. Since I called his flop bet on the monotone flop, he has to be concerned about me having a long big diamond - and I doubt he would check a flush there. So I rule out a flush.

Set or overpair (not including a pair of aces or kings including the diamond version). I think that once again, he would never fail to protect such a hand with a turn lead. And if the very off chance that he might have done so, he is more likely to call my bet than raise all-in. But more importantly, I don't think he risks me checking behind with a strong but vulnerable hand.

What else can he have? A-9 or K-9 with the ace or king of diamonds? Possible, but I don't think he open raises with those hands. But they are within the realm of possibility.

A big pair including the diamond? Well that is possible and scary. But unless it was specifically AA with the Ad, I feel like he would open lead the turn and not go for a check-raise for fear of a check-check where he would have to wonder if a fourth diamond hit the board.

So while it is certainly possible that he had me drawing dead or close to it, none of those scenarios really made a lot of sense to me for the reasons explained.

Now what else could he have? Well the hand that I thought was most likely was the naked Ad. That would be a hand that would not want a call (so would make sense that he would raise so much). That would also be a hand that may well check the turn hoping for a free river. When I make a handsome bet into the turn as I did, he doesn't want to just call. Keep in mind that I mentioned that I had the distinct feeling that he was really frustrated with my repeated raising - especially with me having position on him. He did not want to give up on this hand, and having the nut card, I felt like he would play the bare Ad exactly like that. Now what cards can he have with the ace of diamonds? Certainly he would have another ace or a 9 in which case I am drawing extremely thin. However, I think he makes the same play with another ace or nine as he would with any other card - which includes any non diamond king, queen, jack, or ten. Against those hands, I am better than 3-1 to win.

As I thought about it, the range of hands Ad-x where x is the range of hands described above was what he would be overwhelmingly likely to make this play with. I am in trouble if x is an ace or nine (5 cards - since the nine cannot be a diamond) but am way ahead if x is any of the others (if we say non-diamond king through ten, we have 11 cards).

So as marginal as my hand was I made the call. Fortunately I was correct. He had Ad-10h, leaving him drawing to 12 outs. River is a brick and I take the 4800 pot.

Thoughts on the play/analysis? Again, keep in mind that I do agree that betting the turn opens me up to having to make a tough decision (and I would not bet the turn in this situation against Strassa, BLD, Bluffthis, zeebo, and other players that I consider to be outstanding (and capable of putting me in that spot with a wider range of hands). But this player was both frustrated and a little transparent in the way he wanted value out of his huge hands.

I'd appreciate comments on this analysis - and I'll get to the other hands later.