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#11
03-28-2006, 10:19 AM
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Re: stars 2/4
[ QUOTE ]
I agree. I understand Thwworstplayer's arguments but man, just really doesn't feel like he'd play AA/KK that way. I think a value bet is +EV, though thin. I'm curious as to the results as I'm a results-oriented fish. [/ QUOTE ] Besides JJ, what worse hands are calling? A bet isn't +EV if no better hands fold and no worse ones call even if you're almost positive you have the best hand. 
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#13
03-28-2006, 10:31 AM
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Re: stars 2/4
seems like the best two logical plays are either all in or 1/2-3/4 pot value bet.
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#16
03-28-2006, 10:36 AM
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Re: stars 2/4
Oh, sorry, didn't see your other post about why it would be weird for him to have AA/KK. My reasoning is that he has history with hero and has a sense for how he plays. When hero calls the flop, villain should know he already has a made hand. It's hard to believe that villain would not value bet the turn, but check/calling to induce a bet is sensible. But I would expect AA/KK to donk the river for value in that case. Another check just doesn't seem like the strength of an AA/KK, but you would know better than I how plausible it is for villain to play it like this. If I had AA/KK here, I would be donking the river if I checked the turn about 100%.
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#17
03-28-2006, 10:37 AM
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Re: stars 2/4
[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, and if JJ calls, and he has JJ or a folding hand the vast majority of the time, then it's +EV. [/ QUOTE ] This isn't accurate. The worse hands that will fold to a bet do not affect the EV of the bet. The EV of the bet only involves the percentage of the time a better hand folds and the percentage of the time a worse hand calls.
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#18
03-28-2006, 10:44 AM
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Re: stars 2/4
[ QUOTE ]
Anyone think it could be a good spot to check-back on the turn ? If I'm villain with AA-KK, I'm checking this turn often to let smaller overpairs or random junk put more money in the pot. [/ QUOTE ] I don't like giving AK a chance to catch for free. I'd probably bet half pot on the turn and take a free showdown. That money almost certainly is going in the pot before showdown, so I'd rather do it on the turn than the river.
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#19
03-28-2006, 10:50 AM
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Re: stars 2/4
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Yeah, and if JJ calls, and he has JJ or a folding hand the vast majority of the time, then it's +EV. [/ QUOTE ] This isn't accurate. The worse hands that will fold to a bet do not affect the EV of the bet. The EV of the bet only involves the percentage of the time a better hand folds and the percentage of the time a worse hand calls. [/ QUOTE ] What I was saying is that I think he folds or calls with worse much higher than the % he has AA/KK/TT. In my mind at the time I was envisioning 90% he has JJ/fold and 10% better, so I know he'll call that JJ more than he'll have AA/KK/TT, I was thinking he has JJ 66%, folds 24%, owns 10%. But now that I read over the thread, I could see TT being sneaky like that. Checking is certainly safest and probably the correct option.
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#20
03-28-2006, 11:01 AM
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Re: stars 2/4
im not going to post results yet, but my feeling on the river was the only hand i could get value from was JJ. Based on his turn action i felt there was a good chance he had 88-QQ although AA and KK are possible especially since we are so deep. There does remain the fact that i know nothing about villain so he could pay off with a small pocketpair or AK (although unlikely.) Also i disagree with checking the turn b/c AK is very likely after his turn check (but much less after his call) and i dont want to give him a free card. lemme just add that TT and 99 scared me on the river and personally i think there is a good chance i would try to c/r the river with those holdings. Also if i bet what is a good amount?
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