Bill Simmons: NFL Playoff Manifesto 4.0

[leonard9]

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Here's a good rule of thumb: Take a deep breath and ask yourself one question: "If my life depended on this pick, would I still be making this bet?"

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???

Apparently we have a lot of people who are 100% sure about every bet they make, or at least that's how he wants it.

[shamu]

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wow I forgot all about his manifesto. thanks for the post, Simmons stuff is always great..

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So great that he managed to pull off a 124-124-6 record this season!

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That's actually a great record, considering he was forced to make a pick in EVERY game.

[DougOzzzz]

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wow I forgot all about his manifesto. thanks for the post, Simmons stuff is always great..

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So great that he managed to pull off a 124-124-6 record this season!

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That's actually a great record, considering he was forced to make a pick in EVERY game.

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I don't really understand this sentiment. A coin flip on all games has exactly the same expectation.

A long term winner should have a lower winning % if forced to pick every game, but it still should be above 50.

What was strange about this year is almost all "proven" winners did not win this year, due to favorites covering at about 58% rather than the typical 48%.

[tech]

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What was strange about this year is almost all "proven" winners did not win this year, due to favorites covering at about 58% rather than the typical 48%.


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Not true. Proven dog bettors and value players lost. Proven handicappers still won.

[Performify]

FWIW Jeff Zillgit (USA Today) went 183-73 SU (137-100-12 ATS) and posted the best record of the public pick'ers according to his latest column which shows their records.

If you took pure -110 lines he would have shown a +26 unit profit following all his ATS picks, which certainly outdoes my record for the year (+14.5 units for the year on all posted plays, only picking 3-8 plays per week). That being said he only hit 1/4 wildcard games ATS.

(the poster formerly known as jedinite)

[shamu]

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I don't really understand this sentiment. A coin flip on all games has exactly the same expectation.

A long term winner should have a lower winning % if forced to pick every game, but it still should be above 50.


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Hmm, ok you're right. I was originally thinking along the lines of your second statement when I wrote my reply, but you're right that his record should still be above .500. So I guess it's not that great after all.

[Performify]

also for what its worth, I believe Simmons was one of the traditionally underdog prognosticators, and got hammered in this regard like a lot of people. IIRC, he finished with a decent record last year.

ultimately i believe the moral of the story is that you can't blindly follow their picks, but I do constantly find their analysis interesting and will often find things in their writeups that I factor in to my own. And in Simmon's case, i find his writing entertaining enough that I'm a regular reader of his blog and columns and bought his book.

[DougOzzzz]

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What was strange about this year is almost all "proven" winners did not win this year, due to favorites covering at about 58% rather than the typical 48%.


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Not true. Proven dog bettors and value players lost. Proven handicappers still won.

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I will have to take your word for it. The two I know of, Fezzik and SSB.com both lost. This is an argument for elsewhere though (tons of discussion and flaming on this subject at Fezzik's place).

[tech]

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(tons of discussion and flaming on this subject at Fezzik's place).

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Dreamer is my hero.

[craig]

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(tons of discussion and flaming on this subject at Fezzik's place).

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Dreamer is my hero.

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He is on a roll over there right now also. His quotes, pics (not PICKS), traps have been great entertainment for me.

craig