Calculate Arbitrage/Scalp bet with different spreads?

[playersare]

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I was using the numbers for the calculations not bets, just as a proof of concept, given that situation you can have a win-win situation (although very small) if you balance your wagers properly.

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really? why don't you show us how to make a guaranteed profit on +110 and -110.

[im2sexy4mychips]

I dont mean to burst your bubble (actually I do), but if you are struggling with this 8th grade level math, I doubt your software is going to be worth buying or even using yourself. There are several companies that already sell software that alerts people of arbs and have tons of other features. Also, sports arbitrage sounds like great easy money, but it really isn't. You have to be glued to the computer screen for hours and hours a day to turn even a pittance of a profit. If you have $50,000 to start with in 20 sports-betting accounts, you can spend every waking hour at the computer and make $150 bucks a day if you're good. I would rather play 1-2NL and make 200 in a three or four hours.

[DeucesUp]

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Let's try another example so you guys can tell me I'm wrong again. More obvious this time (for example sake)

Book1: PHI +7 -110
Book2: CHI -5 +120

Price conversions:
-110 = 10/11 = 90.91%
+120 = 12/10 = 120%

$113 on PHI gives $102.70 on win
$87 on CHI gives $104.40 on win

so you have a gauranteed minimum $2.70 profit.
1.78% average investment on you $200
PLUS if CHI wins by 5, 6, or 7 points you win huge with the hedge.

If anyone know how to factor in this "win huge with the hedge" factor into my mathematics example I am interested!

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You are really struggling with some basic math here, are you sure you want to pursue this?

Your minimum profit is not $2.70 in your example. You win $102.7 - 87 = $15.70 if Phi covers and lose $104.40-$113=-$8.60 if Chi covers. You really need to get a handle on this before you go any further, this is simple stuff.





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PLUS if CHI wins by 5, 6, or 7 points you win huge with the hedge.

If anyone know how to factor in this "win huge with the hedge" factor into my mathematics example I am interested!

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As to this question, the Math is simple (though still harder than simple scalp above), you simply multiply the probabilty of a 5, 6 or 7 being the final score by the amount you'll win if those numbers hit (e.g. 6 wins both bets, 5 & 7 win one and push the other, since the bet amounts are different you will have a different outcome on each of 5, 6 & 7).

The trouble is there is no simple way to get the probabilities of landing on 5, 6 or 7 -- there is no mathematical rule you can use. An NBA game is different from NCAABB game, a game between Pho & Sea is different from a game between SA & Mem, a game lined at +2 is different from a game lined at +10, the chances of landing on 1,2 or 3 are different from the chances of 6,7 or 8, a home game for NY is different from an away game for NY, a game back in Dec is different from a game in March etc. The best you can do is use historical data, figure out which games are most similar to the one you're looking at and see how often 5,6 & 7 hit in those games and hope it's close to the same in your game. Craig gave a link above which is a probably about as good as your going to do with out a ton of work.

Good luck.

[ImBen]

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What I really need is the *Math* you use when have different spreads to calcualte the scalpers advantage in an arbitrage situation. I am writing software an am having trouble implementing some of the algorithms when planning for different spread scenarios.

Maybe some of you heard of Win Risk Free, I am developing software like that, except it will work better. I almost have a working beta that I will release soon as I deem it stable.

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If you can't figure out how to calculate an arb bet, I'm frightened by how poor your "software" must be.

[playersare]

I think what OP is trying to do is to make his software detect profitable sides and middles (incl. juice) in addition to pure scalps on the same line as most programs already do. however, these calculations are highly arbitrary and it is ultimately up to the individual bettor whether to take the margin or buy/sell back the half points.

as I've gotten more experienced in sportsbetting over time, I found that I am much more efficient in finding good opportunities with my own eye rather than waiting for some program to beep on a screen, by then usually it's too late to react anyway.

[Freerollin`]

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If you can't figure out how to calculate an arb bet, I'm frightened by how poor your "software" must be.

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Why say this? What's the purpose?

I find it hard to believe that someone with a grand total of 27 posts decides to say something like this. I've got > 500, and I wouldn't consider being a jerk like you.

[Qbawler311]

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Let's try another example so you guys can tell me I'm wrong again. More obvious this time (for example sake)

Book1: PHI +7 -110
Book2: CHI -5 +120

Price conversions:
-110 = 10/11 = 90.91%
+120 = 12/10 = 120%

$113 on PHI gives $102.70 on win
$87 on CHI gives $104.40 on win

so you have a gauranteed minimum $2.70 profit.
1.78% average investment on you $200
PLUS if CHI wins by 5, 6, or 7 points you win huge with the hedge.

If anyone know how to factor in this "win huge with the hedge" factor into my mathematics example I am interested!

[/ QUOTE ]

You are really struggling with some basic math here, are you sure you want to pursue this?

Your minimum profit is not $2.70 in your example. You win $102.7 - 87 = $15.70 if Phi covers and lose $104.40-$113=-$8.60 if Chi covers. You really need to get a handle on this before you go any further, this is simple stuff.





[ QUOTE ]
PLUS if CHI wins by 5, 6, or 7 points you win huge with the hedge.

If anyone know how to factor in this "win huge with the hedge" factor into my mathematics example I am interested!

[/ QUOTE ]

As to this question, the Math is simple (though still harder than simple scalp above), you simply multiply the probabilty of a 5, 6 or 7 being the final score by the amount you'll win if those numbers hit (e.g. 6 wins both bets, 5 & 7 win one and push the other, since the bet amounts are different you will have a different outcome on each of 5, 6 & 7).

The trouble is there is no simple way to get the probabilities of landing on 5, 6 or 7 -- there is no mathematical rule you can use. An NBA game is different from NCAABB game, a game between Pho & Sea is different from a game between SA & Mem, a game lined at +2 is different from a game lined at +10, the chances of landing on 1,2 or 3 are different from the chances of 6,7 or 8, a home game for NY is different from an away game for NY, a game back in Dec is different from a game in March etc. The best you can do is use historical data, figure out which games are most similar to the one you're looking at and see how often 5,6 & 7 hit in those games and hope it's close to the same in your game. Craig gave a link above which is a probably about as good as your going to do with out a ton of work.

Good luck.

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Ouch yes, I see how I was very stupid. I am very knew to this. I really appreciate your post, you demonstrated how I was wrong. Plus, after seeing that I am a noob you continued to help.

Thank you

[Qbawler311]

I got this off a website, I'm not sure if its correct. Since my math skills are so weak I can't figure out what I am doing wrong. Thanks in advance to all members who choose and have chosen to help instead of ridicule.

"Remember that you must TAKE (T) the higher odds and LAY (L) the lower odds. The formula is based of off what odds you can get. In the above example the take (T) odds are 155, and the lay (L) odds are 145.
(T + 1) /( L + 1) x L = amount to lay per 1 dollar bet on the take odds.

So our take odd is 1.55, and our lay odd is 1.45

(1.55 + 1) / (1.45 + 1) X 1.45 = 1.51

For every 1 Dollar bet at +155, we bet 1.51 at –145.
The next formula is to determine the percentage profit we are guaranteed.

(T –L) / L (T+2) + 1 = percentage won.

(1.55) / 1.45(1.55 + 2) + 1 = 1.6%"


This is the line I am having trouble with:
<< (T –L) / L (T+2) + 1 = percentage won.

In his example (T-L) would not equal 1.55

I have changed the function around several different ways and I can't seem to get 1.6%?

I am interested in the correct function for gauranteed percent profit. I plan to have my programs GUI sort the highest percent gaurantee profits.

[Qbawler311]

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There are several companies that already sell software that alerts people of arbs and have tons of other features.

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I would be interested in the names of the companies and the software you are refferring. From what I have seen the web site and e-mail notification services are to slow and the PC programs don't work (win-risk-free problems accessing server and freezes up PC) or are over priced

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Also, sports arbitrage sounds like great easy money, but it really isn't.

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I agree

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You have to be glued to the computer screen for hours and hours a day to turn even a pittance of a profit.

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I am writing software to overcome this hurdle.

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If you have $50,000 to start with in 20 sports-betting accounts, you can spend every waking hour at the computer and make $150 bucks a day if you're good.

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$150 a day of risk free money doesn't sound so bad.

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I would rather play 1-2NL and make 200 in a three or four hours.

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If you are claiming you consistently make 50-66 dollars an hour playing 1-2NL you are only fooling yourself...Maybe if your playing >4 tables at once.

[ImBen]

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I've got > 500 posts

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I'm sorry, is that impressive? Luckily for me I don't define myself by my post count.

Let me apologize for calling the idiot an idiot for wasting everyone's time by announcing that he needed help with junior high algebra. Maybe you should devote your deep sensitivity and compassion for the feelings of your fellow man to a nobler cause than poker and sportsbetting.