JJ would you have played it differently?

[bozlax]

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i bet the turn and the river, it costs me nothing extra as I have to fold to a c/r

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Meh, bet/fold the turn, take the free showdown.

[Oink]

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i bet the turn and the river, it costs me nothing extra as I have to fold to a c/r

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Meh, bet/fold the turn, take the free showdown.

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To you guys who bets the turn.

What worse hand do you expect to get called with?

How many worse hands do you think he has where handing out free cards is a mistake?

How often do you think he will bluff the river if we check the turn?


I dont think checking is a mistake. There are plenty of hands he will fold to a bet but bluff with on the river.

The pot is smallish so your primary goal should be to get more bets into the pot. If he bluffs a lot when turn gets checked through you should consider a value check.

[Buzz-cp]

bet/fold turn.

Given that we've checked behind turn, I do believe that we've confused our opponent holding 77 or so. He will surely call a river bet, esp if he holds like JT. Sometimes he will have a better hand, but there is not much here that would indicate that. Definitely missed some value.

[Buzz-cp]

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i bet the turn and the river, it costs me nothing extra as I have to fold to a c/r

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Meh, bet/fold the turn, take the free showdown.

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To you guys who bets the turn.

What worse hand do you expect to get called with?

How many worse hands do you think he has where handing out free cards is a mistake?

How often do you think he will bluff the river if we check the turn?


I dont think checking is a mistake. There are plenty of hands he will fold to a bet but bluff with on the river.

The pot is smallish so your primary goal should be to get more bets into the pot. If he bluffs a lot when turn gets checked through you should consider a value check.

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I agree, I don't think checking is a big mistake. However, many bad players are committed to a calldown when hero raises preflop, and autobets this flop, regardless of turn/river cards.

[Fluffy_Shark]

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How many worse hands do you think he has where handing out free cards is a mistake?

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Every Q has 6 outs against us. If he folds one I'd consider that a success even if the pot is only 4BB.

Qhxh, QJ have even more outs (even though those are unlikely)

[Oink]

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How many worse hands do you think he has where handing out free cards is a mistake?

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Every Q has 6 outs against us. If he folds one I'd consider that a success even if the pot is only 4BB.

Qhxh, QJ have even more outs (even though those are unlikely)

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- Qx

In a 4 BB pot you would much rather have him bluff bet the river than have him fold a 6 outer.

That said he needs to bluff bet it fairly often for it to better to check.


- Q high fd.

If he calls that - and I think we can assume that he will - its of course nice to get some value. But again if he will bluff bet the river for you it doesnt really matter when the bet goes in. If you win the hand you win 1 bet and if he sucks out you loose 1 bet.


A basic thing to think about: If your hand isnt good enough to valuebet again on the river you should strongly consider to check the turn.

- A lot of the worse hands that you miss value from on the turn will bet the river. So you win 1 bet anyways

- You will not get c/r and save 2 bets when you were gonna call down a c/r.

- You will see the river with your x outs and not get raised of the hand when you were gonna fold to a c/r.

- When villain was gonna c/f the turn you will sometimes win 1 bet on the river when he bluffs.


If you think you have a valuebet again on the river all those things does not apply as you will loose value from not valuebetting the turn.

[Xylocain]

:g:
Check turn call/ (b/f) any river. You are getting called or raised by A or K on the turn, crap hands will fold and you are not getting value from a Q (that is the only hand short of [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]s and maaaaybe JQs that is not drawing very slim in this tiny pot) but you might induce a river bluff or "value bet" from a low pp. Turn bet is bad IMO.

Unless of course MP3 does not have light responsive pupils, then you can valuebet 3 streets LDO.

[Aaron W.]

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To you guys who bets the turn.

What worse hand do you expect to get called with?

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Medium pocket pairs and a flush draw.

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How many worse hands do you think he has where handing out free cards is a mistake?

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That backdoor flush draw is halfway there if he made a loose flop peel. But I don't think that's the point.

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How often do you think he will bluff the river if we check the turn?

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Probably not as often as he value bets the river with Ax/Kx.

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I dont think checking is a mistake. There are plenty of hands he will fold to a bet but bluff with on the river.

The pot is smallish so your primary goal should be to get more bets into the pot. If he bluffs a lot when turn gets checked through you should consider a value check.

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Your primary goal is to avoid making a mistake and to induce mistakes. This is the type of situation where it's rare you'll get in any more money when you have the best hand. I would rather bet-fold the turn with confidence that he's not bluffing than check and play the "What is his bluffing frequency?" game.

As you say, it's a small pot. But this cuts back against your plan because it means that villain must be bluffing about 20% of the time for your bluff-inducing check to have value.

[Xylocain]

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I would rather bet-fold the turn with confidence that he's not bluffing than check and play the "What is his bluffing frequency?" game.

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But the cost of him valuebetting river is 0 right since we would have payed that bet on the turn anyway.

What must be considered in order to chose between betting or checking on the turn is not Vills valuebet to bluff ratio on the river but rather Vils river bet (hands that we beat) to call with a worse hand on turn ratio. Right?

[edit] I'm assuming the pot is small so handing out freecards is no biggie [/edit]

[Aaron W.]

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I would rather bet-fold the turn with confidence that he's not bluffing than check and play the "What is his bluffing frequency?" game.

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But the cost of him valuebetting river is 0 right since we would have payed that bet on the turn anyway.

What must be considered in order to chose between betting or checking on the turn is not Vills valuebet to bluff ratio on the river but rather Vils river bet (hands that we beat) to call with a worse hand on turn ratio. Right?

[edit] I'm assuming the pot is small [/edit]

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Sort of... what you're missing are the situations like OP where villain doesn't bet the river. If he has a hand that he wants to show down but isn't willing to bet, then you miss out on the turn value bet. I just don't think that the bluffing frequency is high enough to overcome that loss of value (as small as it is), especially since the pot is small and I don't even know if a generic player bets his hand 20% of the time.

This is a spot like in blackjack where you hit on a 16 against a dealer 10 because you expect to lose less than if you just stand. You're not super-pleased with it, but it's better than the alternative.

When in doubt, value bet > checking to induce a bluff. With such a small pot and no read on villain, I'm value betting and hoping to get called by flush draws, medium pocket pairs, and QJ/QT/JT.