AKs - River Bluff v. Donk

[zxjaexz]

yea i would prolly 3 bet preflop cause most of the time they do that min raise theyre not very strong. They usually want to take the lead by putting little money in the pot.. so i would 3 bet preflop and bet flop. and on the turn against a donk. i might ck behind and ck if i missed cause hes prolly claling u the whole way. but against a regular player i would prolly shove the turn.

[ilya]

I think raising the turn sucks as you're easily getting direct odds to call and your implied odds are pretty good as your draw is well-concealed -- it's safe to say that you'll win $10-$15 more on average when you hit. After all if he has a J or TT only 1 diamond will be an overcard to his hand. Meanwhile if he has a big hand -- one you have the most implied odds against -- he is now likely to re-raise you out of the hand.

On the flop, I dunno. If he's check-folded to you a couple times you'd think he would have gone for a check-raise with a big hand? On the other hand he may be goading you into raising, or may get stubborn with a marginal hand if you raise. It's really hard to say without more info, but on balance I think I prefer calling to raising as even hands you are ahead of may be going for a bet-3bet. What if you hit top pair on the turn and he donks again for 1/2 pot or more though?

I don't think I like the river as the only better hands I can see him folding are T9 and TT, and I actually think even TT will look you up pretty often. Meanwhile it seems very possible that he's going for a check-raise.