Sick satellite KK spot

[adanthar]

okay I'll elaborate:

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I'll contribute this... Saphire is probably never continuing. It would take AA for him to put more chips in the pot, even if we fold. With that said, can sYs ever not have AA here? I'm really baffled by this spot and I'm leaning towards folding. Seems like sYs has to have AA and Saphire will never continue unless he has AA.

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If we shove, saphire should only call AA, I think. If we fold, he might even need to fold aces (maybe not, but it's closer than if we shove because he'd need to finish third to bust).

sYs' range is one of three things: exactly AA, AA-QQ/AK (if he's dumb), or two cards that he's screwing around with because he knows no one can call. If you shove, it has to be because #3 outweighs the likelihood of #1.

[Beachman42]

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okay I'll elaborate:

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I'll contribute this... Saphire is probably never continuing. It would take AA for him to put more chips in the pot, even if we fold. With that said, can sYs ever not have AA here? I'm really baffled by this spot and I'm leaning towards folding. Seems like sYs has to have AA and Saphire will never continue unless he has AA.

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If we shove, saphire should only call AA, I think. If we fold, he might even need to fold aces (maybe not, but it's closer than if we shove because he'd need to finish third to bust).

sYs' range is one of three things: exactly AA, AA-QQ/AK (if he's dumb), or two cards that he's screwing around with because he knows no one can call. If you shove, it has to be because #3 outweighs the likelihood of #1.

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Ok, playing the hand without looking at KK - The shorty open raised 2K of his 14K stack where open pushing is the generally accepted line for a ss on a sat bubble. Shouldn't player #2 just push over (at least raise to more than 8K straight) to commit the short stack? His raise is small for a full table, let alone 4 handed. What does he have? I'd guess AK or possibly QQ-TT looking to bail on his hand if someone else gets in the action and he doesn't like the flop. He's GOT to be done with this hand as his action would be retarded with AA.

So, sYs raises again to commit both players to a sat deciding pot when he doesn't need to - I mean he can survive losing an AI to anyone and still be in the running for a seat. IMHO, he has AA 80% of the time and ATC 20% looking to squeeze the shortie into folding since he only bet 2K and saphire into folding his retarded bet.

20% (KK vs. AA) plus 20% air is enough to call 12K into 2K plus 2100 plus 5600 plus 12K (anticipated call if we push) as 21,700/12,000 is just under 2:1.

Unless you are certain sYs has AA, this is a call. If we were not so short, I could see a fold here but if we do so now, we have 15BBs at a 4 handed game.

I think open pushing is >>>>>>> pushing now >>>>>>>>> folding.

[adanthar]

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I think open pushing is >>>>>>> pushing now >>>>>>>>> folding.

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open pushing is absolutely horrific

[WarDekar]

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I think open pushing is >>>>>>> pushing now >>>>>>>>> folding.

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open pushing is absolutely horrific

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QFT That said... It's tough to say what to do here and I think it's pretty much been covered, and is highly dependent on your read of sYs

[ASPoker8]

wtf, why do people think open-shoving 18 bb's is "normal" or "the best play here"

Seriously, what runs through your head when you decide to post in a strategy thread that open-jamming KK with 18bb's is the "standard play"?!

rtjhnwjklthnlwjrhnjklrh

!?!?!?!egbjklth

[ZeeJustin]

Open shoving is terrible. We want action.

However, it is too likely we are beat here, and we aren't looking for marginal spots just yet. Fold, but it's very close. The slightest read would push my decision into a shove.

Whoever said we lock up a spot if we double up here is completely wrong, and knowingly sticking our chips in as a 4-1 dog would be unreal terrible.

[Beachman42]

Please educate me, then. We have 18 bbs (and an M of 4.5!!)& a very strong hand. We should be open pushing or folding only since we are MOST susecptible to being blinded down to being called loosely when we have fewer chips. If we steal the B+A, congrats we live for 4 more hands. At 50K/30K/30K/15K stacks, there is little hope of folding (waiting for an opponent to make a mistake) into a seat. If we are open pushing, then I'm delighted to do so with KK. We need to double through someone looking to bust us to get a seat. I'll make my stand right here and hope that I get a call in this situation.

Honestly, I doubt that I'm good enough to fold KK as the shortie, so I'll just push it with this stack size and hope for a call. I think a 2K bet here is just dumb unless you planned to 3 bet AI once you have an opponent odds committed to call.

So al;fdljkgh;sd,.god, b'flbv, df to your logic, too [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[ZeeJustin]

Beach, you are advocating a push because you want a double up, but we are much more likely to double up by making it 2k to go. We rarely get action when we push.

[ASPoker8]

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Please educate me, then. We have 18 bbs (and an M of 4.5!!)& a very strong hand. We should be open pushing or folding only since we are MOST susecptible to being blinded down to being called loosely when we have fewer chips. If we steal the B+A, congrats we live for 4 more hands. At 50K/30K/30K/15K stacks, there is little hope of folding (waiting for an opponent to make a mistake) into a seat. If we are open pushing, then I'm delighted to do so with KK. We need to double through someone looking to bust us to get a seat. I'll make my stand right here and hope that I get a call in this situation.

Honestly, I doubt that I'm good enough to fold KK as the shortie, so I'll just push it with this stack size and hope for a call. I think a 2K bet here is just dumb unless you planned to 3 bet AI once you have an opponent odds committed to call.

So al;fdljkgh;sd,.god, b'flbv, df to your logic, too [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

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I think you have a lot to learn before replying to posts in HSMTT

If you think open-shoving KK with 18bb's gets you the most action, you are very very wrong

[eBo]

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Please educate me, then. We have 18 bbs (and an M of 4.5!!)& a very strong hand. We should be open pushing or folding only since we are MOST susecptible to being blinded down to being called loosely when we have fewer chips. If we steal the B+A, congrats we live for 4 more hands. At 50K/30K/30K/15K stacks, there is little hope of folding (waiting for an opponent to make a mistake) into a seat. If we are open pushing, then I'm delighted to do so with KK. We need to double through someone looking to bust us to get a seat. I'll make my stand right here and hope that I get a call in this situation.

Honestly, I doubt that I'm good enough to fold KK as the shortie, so I'll just push it with this stack size and hope for a call. I think a 2K bet here is just dumb unless you planned to 3 bet AI once you have an opponent odds committed to call.

So al;fdljkgh;sd,.god, b'flbv, df to your logic, too [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

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You miscalculated M. 14732/1400 = ~10. That's too high to be open pushing with anything.