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#12
02-24-2006, 12:26 PM
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Re: Meat And Potatoes Real Life Good Question
If you reraise big, and if the opponent then does not fold this leaves him:
AA: 6 ways KK: 1 way AKs: 2 ways QQ/JJ/goofy: 3 ways, which is 1 way each out of 6 (goofy assumed to be 6 ways but might be more) since "usually" fold was specified. Thus you are ahead 5 ways, tying 1 way, and behind 6 ways when he calls or moves in. And it is important that AKo is not in this mix. So overall you are going to be behind 6:5. To me then, reraising big gives you the best read on his hand while *usually* denying him the ability to call for set value, while at the same time losing less when you will be out of position if you just call. And that calling isn't much of an option since he knows you have a big hand and yet can still bluff you on an A flop with QQ/JJ/goofy. The real question here is how much are you destined to lose in a situation where you hold KK versus AA on the few times such situations occur, and can such losses be minimized either by a good read and folding, or by playing in a way that could allow you to steal the pot when actually behind. This is why I would actually prefer to limp reraise with KK in early position a larger percentage of the time, because it will end up costing less to fold if I read it as necessary. So in summary, I say reraise big and be prepared to fold to a push or a called flop where an A flops or you don't spike a set. 
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#13
02-24-2006, 12:50 PM
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Re: Meat And Potatoes Real Life Good Question
there's 635 in the pot. hand combos are
AA, 6 ways AKs, 2 ways KK, 1 way QQ, 6 ways JJ, 6 ways + goofy hand. my intuition is reraising big is wrong but let's just work it out and be sure. of the times our reraise gets called, we are behind 6 and ahead 2 (3:1). of the times we're ahead he is a 2:1 dog to win, of the times we're behind we're 4.75:1 dog to win. so ev if opponent has AA is -2310, ev if opponent has AK is 1155, making our overall ev -1703 if we raise allin and get called by just AKs and AA. of course, you said he folds QQ and JJ and other hands, so he's folding about twice as often as we're getting called. those times we win 635. so we are losing about 142 bucks over this hand range by raising allin.
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#15
02-24-2006, 01:38 PM
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Re: Meat And Potatoes Real Life Good Question
[ QUOTE ]
10-25 Blinds. 3500 stacks. You have KK and raise under the gun to 100. Tight, good player makes it 500 to your left. You assume there is a ten percent chance he has a goofy hand. Otherwise you assume he will always make this play with AKs, AA, KK, QQ, and half the time with JJ. If you reraise big he will almost always fold queens and jacks and the goofy hand. The other hands he will usually move in with and sometimes flat call. 80-20 move in. If you reraise small, he will at least call with everything, reraise big about half the time with with aces, about 20% of the time with the Aks and about 10% of the time with the other hands. If you just call his raise he will put you on a very likely big hand. How should you play your hand? [/ QUOTE ] What is a "small reraise"? $1500? Does he play perfectly postflop? Will he call all-in on an undercard flop with QQ/JJ? I suspect that raise to $1500, call an all-in reraise, push any reasonable flop if he smooth calls, is best.
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#16
02-24-2006, 01:42 PM
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Re: Meat And Potatoes Real Life Good Question
creed,
Are you saying that you can never get away from a KK vs AA situation, or just that the stacks have to be even deeper in relation to the blinds for you to do so?
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#17
02-24-2006, 02:17 PM
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Re: Meat And Potatoes Real Life Good Question
[ QUOTE ]
easy fold. edited: If he is going to put us on a very big hand, then I calling is fine -- but again, for him to do this, then we would have to actually also be calling with AA a majority of the time. Do you see why all these theoretical questions are so goofy? You assign a bunch of rules that all dont fit together. [/ QUOTE ] Not that you don't understand this, but "The majority of the time I hold AA here I call" and "The majority of the time I call here I have AA or another very big hand" are two very different things. I think Sklansky is assuming that this reraise gets just-called very infrequently.
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#18
02-24-2006, 02:21 PM
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Re: Meat And Potatoes Real Life Good Question
[ QUOTE ]
creed, Are you saying that you can never get away from a KK vs AA situation, or just that the stacks have to be even deeper in relation to the blinds for you to do so? [/ QUOTE ] Sure, I've folded KK before. But villain seems looser than a lot of the online nits I play. This becomes a math problem. The fact that villain will push with AKs as well as with AA makes the call of his allin reraise slightly +EV once you make it $1500 to go; you're calling $2000 and you expect to win $2100 or so. If he pushes occasionally with other stuff (I can't tell from Sklansky's example), then the call is even better.
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#19
02-24-2006, 02:29 PM
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Re: Meat And Potatoes Real Life Good Question
[ QUOTE ]
But once again these small stacks in Sklansky's example work in counterintuitive ways. [/ QUOTE ] 140BB's is "small"? How deep do you guys play? The action seems shallow cause of DS' overbetting, he hasn't been reading his Ferguson.
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#20
02-24-2006, 02:36 PM
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Re: Meat And Potatoes Real Life Good Question
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] But once again these small stacks in Sklansky's example work in counterintuitive ways. [/ QUOTE ] 140BB's is "small"? How deep do you guys play? The action seems shallow cause of DS' overbetting, he hasn't been reading his Ferguson. [/ QUOTE ] My bad, I thought this was 25-50 for some reason.
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