100NL: Turned Straight on Dangerous River

[RyanCMU]

[ QUOTE ]
i am felting this, i really doubt he would call turn raise with lone jack

[/ QUOTE ]

Then why are you felting? A lone J is basically all we beat here...

If we assume he doesn't call the turn with less then 2pair this has to be a river fold, since best case we chopping with the other straight.

We really only beat single As which I don't think would play the hand this way given that they b/c'd the turn and then shoved the river. And QJ, KJ type hands...

All of his likely 2pair hands now beat us, and TT/55 just filled up as well.

I probably fold here.

And I agree with the above poster, you need to make your turn raise larger.

[a breath of air]

I agree a larger raise on the turn is probably better, but idk if this is a fold getting 2:1. Is anyone interested in results?

[allrightfine]

results please? did u chop?

[React1oN]

Well, possible hands that beat us, that he likely has with his play:

55
J10s
1010

etc

QK splits

This definitely looks like a fold

Results?

[BigJohn804]

Is the SB really gonna limp to the flop with AA, JJ, 1010? I would think his range is more likely to include 55, medium suited Aces+ and Kings or Queens with other paint, and medium connectors.

If he has a hand like AJ or J10 or 55, is he really going to get value by shoving the river? It could be an overshove to make it look like a bluff, but if this guy really is a nit, wouldn't he bet for value instead of pushing?

I'm curious about the results. I'm not sure we're beat here as often as some people seem to be indicating, and I think I'd be calling the push here, but not happily.

[Nick Royale]

Bet the flop; it's a good flop to c-bet. Raise more on the turn. A psr is 36, I'll raise to 30-32 at least. The river river push will then be about 55 in 72.