3 left in FT 22k, marginal spot with A2

[JammyDodga]

Surely your estimate of $3369 MEV is dependent on the assumption that you wont be folding all of your better than average hands just because the big stack might call with ATC?

[Sir_Pillage]

The MEV estimates are standard chip chop numbers. They assume that all players are equally skilled, and estimate the probability of each place as a function of the chip stacks. You can read about it in Harrington (Vol. 3, I think). Basically, these numbers assume that you are straight up flipping against these guys. The fact is, if you are playing optimally against someone that is effectively open shoving into you > 75% of the time your MEV in the case where you fold and have 47k is much higher than $3369, because you will be finding much better than flip spots for your money. In other words, the -$28 EV is assuming you are equally as good as these guys and if you are better, you should be even more MEV averse to gambling here.

[Dunkman]

My problem with your calculation is 2 things, neither of which have anything to do with the math (I admit I didn't really look at the math I'm just assuming it's correct.) First, SB isn't gonna get crazy with us being so short, so he's gonna either get it in with a good hand, or wait for us to double or bust. Therefore, we're gonna have to get it in at some point, and we will completely blind off in 15 hands. Obviously, if we don't do something in the next few then when we do double it won't matter much. Also, if we double here we now have a 22 BB stack. I don't know about you, but I'm usually one of the better players in tournaments I play. As the final table progresses I usually have more and more of an advantage over people who fail to adjust properly (I play small donkaments, they're really bad.) With our current stack, I just have one move, all-in. If we can double here then instead of just one move, all of the sudden most of our arsenal of poker skills becomes available. Anyway, my long winded point is that I think, for me at least, the monetary EV of doubling here is much greater than just the chip distribution of the prize pool.