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#11
02-22-2006, 09:19 PM
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Re: When can you be confident that you are a winner?
Nope. 374x$110 bet = $41140.
2644/41140= 6.43%. [ QUOTE ] I would adjust my unit when my bankroll has grown 20%, and never adjust when my bankroll is down. [/ QUOTE ] I prefer to resize everyday when you are betting a small unit size, but plenty of people use thresholds and there's not really anything wrong with it. However, not adjusting when you are losing is a recipe for disaster. 
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#12
02-23-2006, 12:24 AM
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Re: When can you be confident that you are a winner?
Wow, you are 90% you will win when you bet the favorite? just wow.
You're right, If you are 90% you will win every bet you make on the favorite, then everything I have said is definately wrong. Oh, and no, I wouldn't be comfortable putting 20% of my bankroll at risk on 20 +1000 underdogs. I've never bet on an underdog over half that before, so I can say that with certainty. Oh, and betting the moneyline, I have a lot more than 10% confidence in my underdogs...I guess that's why I've won at 54% with a majority of those being underdogs. So yeah, I guess I was WRONG. No other conclusion or explanaition but WRONG.
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#13
02-23-2006, 12:28 AM
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Re: When can you be confident that you are a winner?
[ QUOTE ]
Nope. 374x$110 bet = $41140. 2644/41140= 6.43%. [ QUOTE ] I would adjust my unit when my bankroll has grown 20%, and never adjust when my bankroll is down. [/ QUOTE ] I prefer to resize everyday when you are betting a small unit size, but plenty of people use thresholds and there's not really anything wrong with it. However, not adjusting when you are losing is a recipe for disaster. [/ QUOTE ] I disagree. It would take a monumental downswing for me to lose 100 units (one that I haven't seen to this date). I have lost over 50 a few times however. If I had adjusted my unit when I was losing, I would have had to win SIGNIFICANTLY more bets than I otherwise would have to get back to even. I think adjusting when you are down just makes it one big teeter totter. When I lose, and don't adjust, I only have to win back the bets I lost. If I do adjust, I have to win back more than I lost.
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#14
02-23-2006, 12:41 AM
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Re: When can you be confident that you are a winner?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Nope. 374x$110 bet = $41140. 2644/41140= 6.43%. [ QUOTE ] I would adjust my unit when my bankroll has grown 20%, and never adjust when my bankroll is down. [/ QUOTE ] I prefer to resize everyday when you are betting a small unit size, but plenty of people use thresholds and there's not really anything wrong with it. However, not adjusting when you are losing is a recipe for disaster. [/ QUOTE ] I disagree. It would take a monumental downswing for me to lose 100 units (one that I haven't seen to this date). I have lost over 50 a few times however. If I had adjusted my unit when I was losing, I would have had to win SIGNIFICANTLY more bets than I otherwise would have to get back to even. I think adjusting when you are down just makes it one big teeter totter. When I lose, and don't adjust, I only have to win back the bets I lost. If I do adjust, I have to win back more than I lost. [/ QUOTE ] You're right that lowering your bet when you go on a downswing will make it take longer to get your head back above water, but keeping your bet flat when you're in a downswing will greatly increase your risk of ruin. Overall, it's personal preference which matters to you, but my outlook is that if you prefer a higher risk of ruin, to avoid the grind, you are less likely to be a long term winner. That's not meant to be a knock on anyone who disagrees, it's just my personal gambling philosophy.
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#15
02-23-2006, 03:23 AM
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Re: When can you be confident that you are a winner?
[ QUOTE ]
Wow, you are 90% you will win when you bet the favorite? just wow. You're right, If you are 90% you will win every bet you make on the favorite, then everything I have said is definately wrong. [/ QUOTE ] No reason to get defensive, I'm simply trying to help you out with the math here because you're making some big errors in reasoning. Am I 90% when I pick a favorite? well when I'm laying -1000 I'd better be, because that just gets me back to even (actually you need 91%) and that's what we were discussing -- 10-1 favorites vs. dogs. If I'm betting on a -200 favorite I hit no where near 90%, but I also don't risk 5-units on those either, so putting 20% of my bankroll on 4 plays wouldn't be an issue. The point is, if you flat bet, betting dogs is much riskier than favorites. The bigger the dog, the bigger the risk. [ QUOTE ] Oh, and no, I wouldn't be comfortable putting 20% of my bankroll at risk on 20 +1000 underdogs. I've never bet on an underdog over half that before, so I can say that with certainty. [/ QUOTE ] Well this is good because betting 1% on +1000 dogs is hugely overbetting your bankroll, that was my point. Betting 1% on +500 dogs is still way overbetting, but less so, betting 1% on +300 dogs might be OK if you have a big edge and (as a said previously) if you're betting +120 or +170 dogs, 1% is probably appropriate and only slightly increases your risk-of-ruin from estimates you've read. Since you don't bet big dogs or big favorites, flat betting shouldn't be a problem for you. [ QUOTE ] Oh, and betting the moneyline, I have a lot more than 10% confidence in my underdogs...I guess that's why I've won at 54% with a majority of those being underdogs. [/ QUOTE ] Obviously you should have more than 10% confidence in your dogs, because you don't bet +1000 dogs, 10% was used as an example for big favorities and dogs. I would be perfectly happy if I could pick 10% dogs as long as I was getting +1200. I just wouldn't be risking 1% of my BR on each play because my ROR would be too high. And it doesn't look like the majority of your picks were dogs, the average odds on your plays is about -107. If you were hitting 54% picking mostly dogs, you would have done much better than you did. But still, from the numbers you've given, it appears quite likely you're a winning bettor. Anyway, good luck.
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#16
02-23-2006, 03:53 AM
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Re: When can you be confident that you are a winner?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Nope. 374x$110 bet = $41140. 2644/41140= 6.43%. [ QUOTE ] I would adjust my unit when my bankroll has grown 20%, and never adjust when my bankroll is down. [/ QUOTE ] I prefer to resize everyday when you are betting a small unit size, but plenty of people use thresholds and there's not really anything wrong with it. However, not adjusting when you are losing is a recipe for disaster. [/ QUOTE ] I disagree. It would take a monumental downswing for me to lose 100 units (one that I haven't seen to this date). I have lost over 50 a few times however. If I had adjusted my unit when I was losing, I would have had to win SIGNIFICANTLY more bets than I otherwise would have to get back to even. I think adjusting when you are down just makes it one big teeter totter. When I lose, and don't adjust, I only have to win back the bets I lost. If I do adjust, I have to win back more than I lost. [/ QUOTE ] You're right that lowering your bet when you go on a downswing will make it take longer to get your head back above water, but keeping your bet flat when you're in a downswing will greatly increase your risk of ruin. Overall, it's personal preference which matters to you, but my outlook is that if you prefer a higher risk of ruin, to avoid the grind, you are less likely to be a long term winner. That's not meant to be a knock on anyone who disagrees, it's just my personal gambling philosophy. [/ QUOTE ] Cool..I agree with you. I'm comfortable with the ROR when playing with 1% bets...in fact, that's why I don't do 2% which I've felt tempted to in the past.
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#17
02-23-2006, 03:59 AM
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Re: When can you be confident that you are a winner?
Think we were looking at it from 2 different perspectives. You were looking at the biggest of dogs, and the biggest of favorites..which I rarely find value in, and therefore rarely bet. However, I did bet on the spurs a night or two ago when they were like +1170. I think that won me $9...If I were actually placeing the bets, I probably would have just parlayed that one though.
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#18
02-23-2006, 06:40 AM
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Re: When can you be confident that you are a winner?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Nope. 374x$110 bet = $41140. 2644/41140= 6.43%. [ QUOTE ] I would adjust my unit when my bankroll has grown 20%, and never adjust when my bankroll is down. [/ QUOTE ] I prefer to resize everyday when you are betting a small unit size, but plenty of people use thresholds and there's not really anything wrong with it. However, not adjusting when you are losing is a recipe for disaster. [/ QUOTE ] I disagree. It would take a monumental downswing for me to lose 100 units (one that I haven't seen to this date). I have lost over 50 a few times however. If I had adjusted my unit when I was losing, I would have had to win SIGNIFICANTLY more bets than I otherwise would have to get back to even. I think adjusting when you are down just makes it one big teeter totter. When I lose, and don't adjust, I only have to win back the bets I lost. If I do adjust, I have to win back more than I lost. [/ QUOTE ] You're right that lowering your bet when you go on a downswing will make it take longer to get your head back above water, but keeping your bet flat when you're in a downswing will greatly increase your risk of ruin. Overall, it's personal preference which matters to you, but my outlook is that if you prefer a higher risk of ruin, to avoid the grind, you are less likely to be a long term winner. That's not meant to be a knock on anyone who disagrees, it's just my personal gambling philosophy. [/ QUOTE ] Cool..I agree with you. I'm comfortable with the ROR when playing with 1% bets...in fact, that's why I don't do 2% which I've felt tempted to in the past. [/ QUOTE ] One other way to look at it, as well, is let's say your unit is 1%. You go on a 50 unit downswing. If you keep your original unit size and keep betting, your units have become 2%. If you aren't comfortable with the ROR that comes from a 2% unit, then you HAVE to cut your unit size in half if you lose half your bankroll. Of course that's a somewhat extreme situation, 50 units is a lot to lose, but it's not that extreme, it certainly can happen. If you say that you would not reduce your unit size in a downswing, while at the same time saying that you aren't comfortable with the risk of ruin from a higher percentage unit, then you're directly contradicting yourself. Neither view is wrong, but you should probably choose one opinion or the other that you're comfortable with. And here's wishing you the best of luck, may you never have such a downswing, that this discussion may remain purely theoretical!
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#19
02-23-2006, 11:32 AM
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Re: When can you be confident that you are a winner?
[ QUOTE ]
How many picks? For the first time, i've been keeping track of all my pics this year (without betting actual money on them). I want to know at what point I can be comfortable investing my hard earned dollars on this and expect to come out on top in the long run. 200 picks...500, 1000? [/ QUOTE ] I would say 1000 is a bare minimum if you are talking ATS or O/U, but still the short-run. To be confident you are a long term winner would take at least 5000 bets in my book. You will definitely go through streaks/downswings of 50-100 bets or more, just flip a coin/do a monte carlo of a 50/50 prop and see how long some of the 'runs' get for heads or tails. Doesn't mean it's non-random. Anyone who thinks 500 bets is enough to declare yourself a longterm winner is kidding themselves, of course, that's why so few people make a living at this. Naj [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
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#20
02-24-2006, 01:24 AM
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Re: When can you be confident that you are a winner?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] How many picks? For the first time, i've been keeping track of all my pics this year (without betting actual money on them). I want to know at what point I can be comfortable investing my hard earned dollars on this and expect to come out on top in the long run. 200 picks...500, 1000? [/ QUOTE ] I would say 1000 is a bare minimum if you are talking ATS or O/U, but still the short-run. To be confident you are a long term winner would take at least 5000 bets in my book. You will definitely go through streaks/downswings of 50-100 bets or more, just flip a coin/do a monte carlo of a 50/50 prop and see how long some of the 'runs' get for heads or tails. Doesn't mean it's non-random. Anyone who thinks 500 bets is enough to declare yourself a longterm winner is kidding themselves, of course, that's why so few people make a living at this. Naj [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] Alright, interesting. Maybe I'll just keep track this year and see what comes. Should be 1500-2500 picks.
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