Win rate in Bellagio $15-30 games

[Chipspin]

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$50/hr would be really good. $30/hr is more reasonable.

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In a 10-handed live game though you vpip about 7 hands/hour and I just don't think it's likely you'll see more than 1.25 bb/hr.

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These pieces of knowledge are really good. If you can beat a 15 or 20 game for 1.3BB/hr, I think you're doing really well.

Most people I talk to fail to track their live records very accurately. If you do go ahead with the poker route, I'd recommend keeping an excel spreadsheet of win/loss record and hours played per session (at the very least).

[Vehn]

I dont know of anyone capable of actually playing 40+ real table hours a week for an extended time at any poker game at all, period.

[yellowjack]

I've logged about 20 hours or so at the Bellagio 15/30 game during afternoons. They are not great. Are you the youngish asian guy, bonovox?

$30/hr seems about right overall. There are tons of ups and downs and it takes hundreds of hours to gauge a winrate. What is more likely to happen before you get the sufficient hours to see your winrate is that the game will change, for better or for worse.

Anyhow the best mid-limit game to play is the Wynn's 30/60. If you don't have the cash, I recommend getting a buddy to buy half your action. The 15/30 is much worse, as it is the feeder game for the highest limit game (30/60). I've heard from a friend and some random talking to his friend that the 30/60 is really that good.

[ssmallz]

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What am I missing?

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The fact that you can make more playing smaller stakes and fewer hours online, if you're good enough.


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I wouldn't be so sure of that. Playing a 5/10 online game plays much tougher than a 15/30 live game and from talking to others, the 10/20 online plays tougher than a lot of live 30s and 40s. Rakeback is definatly a plus but I don't know many people who have winrates >1.5bb/100 over a significant sample size. rakeback is nice but I dont know how phesable it is to expect a consistant income of >3k/month online w/out some very significant hours and a very high skill level. Another point to consider is that OP said he has trouble in the aggressive games. The majority of online games, even @ the LLs are much more aggro than live games. Online games may not suit OPs game as well as the live games.

[Budget Boy]

You already play in the softest middle-limit game in the country, why move? [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[emerson]

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I dont think playing live 'professionally' is worthwhile below the 30/60 level. And because the gap in skill is pretty negligable between 15/30 and 30/60, there's not much of a reason to play lower unless you dont have the cash to.

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I have to disagree here, if you are talking live. There may not be much skill difference between the better players at these games. But the smaller game will have more unskilled passive players.

I see a big difference in the number of sheep at the 15/30 and 30/60 games at Bellagio. At Wynn, the difference between the two games is even more pronounced.

The same is a little true when you compare the 20/40 and 40/80 games at commerce. There is not a big difference between the better players. The difference is the average number of bad players per table. The bad players are also more aggressive as you move up, which makes them more difficult.

[disjunction]

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Let me explain my situation. I am 25, single, and currently in the Air Force and work as a chemical engineer. My position is being cut and I have to find something anyway. I have the bankroll, living expenses, and skill necessary to give it a try for 6-12 months. My montly nut is in the neighborhood of $2300. At $30-35/hr, 40-45 hrs/wk, how is this even close to being a bad idea? I fully understand the concept of variance, hence the bankroll and savings, but even if I'm a marginal winner at these stakes, I will at least be able to tread water and cover expenses for a year or so, experience playing for a living, and still have an engineering degree and work experience to get a "real" job if I decide I want one. What am I missing?

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On my one and only trip to Vegas I finished up $900 playing about 20 hours. So the following is not loser-talk: I don't have confidence that the games are clean. If not, the fish are not fish.

[MarkD]

Is anyone able to accurately comment on the comparable difficulties between 15/30 and 30/60 at belagio / wynn as compared to 5/10 or 10/20 at stars?

[Joe Tall]

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I dont know of anyone capable of actually playing 40+ real table hours a week for an extended time at any poker game at all, period.

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There is at least one that posts here.

[BigEndian]

I don't play the Bellagio if I can help it. Same with the Mirage. Any room that makes you suck [censored] to get a $15 comp is not high on my list. On the weekend, try the Wynn. Also try the Venetian after their tourney breaks (which are daily).

- Jim