Wagering on the Presidential Election

[TheVegan]

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The only money worth wagering on Kucinich would be an over/under on when he drops out.

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I have met and talked with him twice. He is in it until the end. He firmly believes he can win. He is the best candidate that I have ever known of.

[mynamewastaken]

I wish Ron Paul would do better, even though he's wrong on a ton of issues, he's right about the war and he's right about inflation. He has no chance whatsoever.

These markets are tough to beat. I think Romney will be the GOP candidate, and he will lose the generalnot for his religion but for the fact that he's a flipflopper. He is the conservative Kerry.

It is too late for McCain, he's the Bob Dole of the race and he's lost favor even with the economic conservative base (that no longer controls the party). Evangelicals won't put up with Giuliani's cross dressing, pro life, pro gay positions and while I think he has the best chance of winning the presidency he can not win the nomination without Bush's (albeit shrinking) base. I would say the rest of the field besides Giuliani/Romney/McCain has a combined 1-100 chance of winning the nomination.

On the Dem side I think it's a tougher call. Edwards may have been sunk by the $400 haircut comment. It sounds shallow but it's exactly the sort of scandal that can shortcircuit a campaign in the early going. I think the GOP wants Hilary as the nominee, because she probably has the least likely chance of the major candidates to win the general. Obama seems like the favorite because it would seem black is not as unelectable as female, or something. I think Obama will be preclusive favorite at some point. Gore is a red herring.

This is the Dems election to lose. But if anyone can blow it it's them.

[pete fabrizio]

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I would say the rest of the field besides Giuliani/Romney/McCain has a combined 1-100 chance of winning the nomination.

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I will take this bet for any amount of money.

[LKJ]

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The only money worth wagering on Kucinich would be an over/under on when he drops out.

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I have met and talked with him twice. He is in it until the end. He firmly believes he can win. He is the best candidate that I have ever known of.

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Since you and I are clearly politically opposite, I won't bother engaging on his relative qualities...

But he truly won't drop out when it's clear that he's done? When he gets hammered in every early primary? Somewhat like Alan Keyes on the GOP side in 2000? I ask out of genuine curiosity.

[NickMPK]

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The only money worth wagering on Kucinich would be an over/under on when he drops out.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have met and talked with him twice. He is in it until the end. He firmly believes he can win. He is the best candidate that I have ever known of.

[/ QUOTE ]

Since you and I are clearly politically opposite, I won't bother engaging on his relative qualities...

But he truly won't drop out when it's clear that he's done? When he gets hammered in every early primary? Somewhat like Alan Keyes on the GOP side in 2000? I ask out of genuine curiosity.

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Kucinich never dropped out in 2004 either. He was the only candidate campaigning against Kerry to the end.

[disjunction]

Ugh, it was so obvious to me that Romney would go up in value, and I missed out. When I visited a friend of mine in Iowa a year ago I told him that exact thing. Romney was elected as a Republican in Massachusetts. The guy just has a knack for appearing more harmless than the other guy. I lived in MA during his governership, and I can't think of a single Romney quote. I just remember what he looks like in a suit. That's why he wins.

I think Giuliani has no chance. Too New York. I think McCain has no chance. Pissed too many people off, and is starting to age. I don't know enough about Thompson but I suspect he has no chance as well. I think if I were betting from here on I'd short all three, on the premise that either Romney or some dark horse wins.

[TheVegan]

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The only money worth wagering on Kucinich would be an over/under on when he drops out.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have met and talked with him twice. He is in it until the end. He firmly believes he can win. He is the best candidate that I have ever known of.

[/ QUOTE ]

Since you and I are clearly politically opposite, I won't bother engaging on his relative qualities...

But he truly won't drop out when it's clear that he's done? When he gets hammered in every early primary? Somewhat like Alan Keyes on the GOP side in 2000? I ask out of genuine curiosity.

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Yes he is definitely in it until the end. This time he is even more determined because he believes the American people want what he has wanted since the beginning: No war. I understand you and I are on opposite sides politically but let me tell you why you might actually be able to respect Kucinich while still disagreeing with him. In the beginning the no backbone Democrats voted for authorization and funding of the war. All the major candidates did. Since the beginning Kucinich has voted against the war and the funding for it.
He has never waivered. He is also the only candidate who will not accept funds from corporations. He does this because he wants no strings attached to him. So he can do what he feels is right without compromise. This is the reason why he has only a miracle's chance of winning. All the Democrats are on the universal healthcare bandwagon right now. Kucinich is also for universal healthcare but he is for "not for profit" universal healthcare. This takes out the insurance and drug companies and has it run by Medicare which saves about 30 -40 percent. The other candidates all take huge contributions from the drug and insurance companies so they would never get behind this. Kucinich is the last almost mainstream candidate standing that has intregrity without being in anyone's pocket. I mean he has the true Democratic agenda unlike the rest of the Democrats who are still voting for funding the war and have from day one. Again I don't expect you or anyone else to agree with my thoughts. I am just putting them out there. Meanwhile I wouldn't bet on Dennis even if there were a place I could. But I can dream........

[LKJ]

I agree, I do respect the rare politician who appears to stand on true principle, even in a losing battle. Even as a hard right conservative, there's definitely the occasional Dem who I respect.

Meanwhile, if I could hand-select the next president, it would be Newt Gingrich...though I'm willing to settle on Romney. Just figured I'd accentuate how far apart we are. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[TheVegan]

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I agree, I do respect the rare politician who appears to stand on true principle, even in a losing battle. Even as a hard right conservative, there's definitely the occasional Dem who I respect.

Meanwhile, if I could hand-select the next president, it would be Newt Gingrich...though I'm willing to settle on Romney. Just figured I'd accentuate how far apart we are. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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OMG, it's funny how far apart we are, but I always appreciate objective, open minded people. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[private joker]

This is the one thread where Hellmouth could come in and say the whole thing is rigged, and I would actually believe him.