Morgan Stanley says stocks could fall 10%

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
Question for the statistically minded:

If you have an asset with a 17% standard deviation, how often can you say it will fall at least 10% in the next six months and end up being right on purely the basis of statistical fluctuation (incorrectly assuming a Gaussian dsd).

[/ QUOTE ]

what do you mean "end up being right"?

Barron

[stinkypete]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Question for the statistically minded:

If you have an asset with a 17% standard deviation, how often can you say it will fall at least 10% in the next six months and end up being right on purely the basis of statistical fluctuation (incorrectly assuming a Gaussian dsd).

[/ QUOTE ]

what do you mean "end up being right"?

Barron

[/ QUOTE ]

i think he's referring to morgan stanley being right about their prediction. confused me too.

[mtgordon]

I believe he is asking what the chances are of the 10% dip just do to the deviation (not due to any correction or mis-evaluation). Put another way, what are the chances that the market dips 10% (thus making the prediction seem correct) if I blindly make the same prediction at some random time.

[Scorpion Man]

[ QUOTE ]
I believe he is asking what the chances are of the 10% dip just do to the deviation (not due to any correction or mis-evaluation). Put another way, what are the chances that the market dips 10% (thus making the prediction seem correct) if I blindly make the same prediction at some random time.

[/ QUOTE ]

QFT

[good2cu]

Without knowing anything about the markets I think this article (and the knowledge other large firms feel the same way), should influence you towards buying European stock if anything.

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Question for the statistically minded:

If you have an asset with a 17% standard deviation, how often can you say it will fall at least 10% in the next six months and end up being right on purely the basis of statistical fluctuation (incorrectly assuming a Gaussian dsd).

[/ QUOTE ]

what do you mean "end up being right"?

Barron

[/ QUOTE ]

i think he's referring to morgan stanley being right about their prediction. confused me too.

[/ QUOTE ]

ah, good looks

Barron

[bav]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
How long ago did you say this?

[/ QUOTE ]

maybe 3weeks-1mo ago. i think i even said it further back as well but not quite sure...that opinion has been held since last november though...post is part tounge in cheek (MS agreeing doesn't make it so).

[/ QUOTE ]
Now see, the issue is if you've been saying the market is going to drop 10% since November, during which time the market has climbed about 14%, and you're STILL saying the market is going to drop 10%, then even if it does fall this doesn't 'xactly make you a EuroStockOracle. It makes you a stopped clock that's right twice a day. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
How long ago did you say this?

[/ QUOTE ]

maybe 3weeks-1mo ago. i think i even said it further back as well but not quite sure...that opinion has been held since last november though...post is part tounge in cheek (MS agreeing doesn't make it so).

[/ QUOTE ]
Now see, the issue is if you've been saying the market is going to drop 10% since November, during which time the market has climbed about 14%, and you're STILL saying the market is going to drop 10%, then even if it does fall this doesn't 'xactly make you a EuroStockOracle. It makes you a stopped clock that's right twice a day. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

lol, i've never said the mkt would drop 10%. i said my position was NEUTRAL on equities (fundamentals being neutral negative but flows & mkt action being positive). lately, the latter two have driven the mkt substantially.

earnings have also been stronger than expected so the fundamentals have been good also. i'm still neutral (like i was back then). if i was forced to take a position, i'd take a slightly positive or slightly negative one. id lean towards the negative one though.

but nowhere near 10% (like i wouldn't bet on that right now)

Barron