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  #11  
Old 05-17-2007, 11:42 AM
betgo betgo is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 15,430
Default Re: My Squeeze got called. How do I proceed?

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Fold preflop. The stack sizes are not right for a squeeze and you don't bluff a calling station.

As played, you have to push the flop. You may be ahead.

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What could you be ahead of? This would be a text book bluff.

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You have ace high. This moron might miniraise call without a higher ace, pp, or king. You probably have some kind of win percentage and you are getting like 2-1 pot odds. Plus he may have missed the dry flop and may fold.

You are 33% against a top 20% hand and 17% against a top 10% hand, so with pot odds pushing is a good semibluff.

Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 17.012% 15.22% 01.79% 180846 21262.50 { A9o }
Hand 1: 82.987% 81.20% 01.79% 964629 21262.50 { 77+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, AJo+, KQo }


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2,322,540 games 0.016 secs 145,158,750 games/sec

Board: Ks 8d 2h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 32.532% 29.26% 03.27% 679557 76018.50 { A9o }
Hand 1: 67.468% 64.19% 03.27% 1490946 76018.50 { 66+, A4s+, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+ }
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  #12  
Old 05-17-2007, 07:29 PM
Hoop Addict Hoop Addict is offline
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Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 428
Default Re: My Squeeze got called. How do I proceed?

If I push the flop - do I get mid-high PP's to fold often?

Would 99-QQ fold very often in that spot with a K on the flop? I'm assuming if he was playing any pocket under 8 he'd have to fold it?

As mentioned in my OP, the button had previously stolen pots from UTG quite often post flop, which is why I Wasn't overly concerned with his holdings when I made the original raise.

If I bet weak (say 30K again) does this get him to fold anytime? And if he were soving that, would I be committed to calling the 35K? (I assume the answer would be yes to that).
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