Turn c/r or Donk?

[MAxx]

yeah, i think i should have bet,3bet the flop in retrospect. I have a pretty huge equity edge unless somebody has KK. However I did get capped so it is definitely in the range.

as played i think i do like a turn donk.

that all said...

I cr'd turn, MP folded, Button had KK and capped turn, and I led, 3bet the river.

[Absolution]

I'm not sure if I would call here pre-flop. I would probably fold if I was playing well.

I think you have a lot of options on the flop. I could make cases for check-raising, donking and just calling like you did.

The turn is an easy check-raise given the way you played it.

[Dr. Matt]

On the flop, we have 9 outs to flush, plus 6 more outs to a straight = 15 outs = 54% of the time we're gonna win this hand. I'd be tempted to c/r that flop for value.

On the turn, as played, I try for the c/r because a donk doesn't flow with the c/c on the flop. I think it'd slow down any hand button might have... including AA, AK... probably not KK. I think we can get more out of a c/r than a donk.

[milesdyson]

i dont like donking or check raising the flop. you dont want it headsup and that's the likely outcome of either action (mp will usually fold).

on the turn, i think a bet is good if button were more aggressive. i don't think he's going to raise with AA or AK, whereas he'll always bet these. i want 2 bets to go in here, and i don't think there's any good way to get MP involved in that.

MP holding AQ/AT is a factor too. i doubt it matters much whether he sees the river with these for one bet though.

[StellarWind]

The whole purpose of checkcalling the flop is to preserve the checkraise for after you make your hand. If you have to lead the turn when you hit then there is no point in not jamming your big draw on the flop.

Of course the turn checkraise is actually pretty borderline because of your terrible relative and absolute position. The checkraise would be even poorer if you had hit the obvious flush instead of the unexpected straight.

When you have no idea what to do it often means you botched the previous street and that appears to be the case here. The only good solution to your turn dilemma is to prevent it by betting or checkraising the flop. That gives you immediate extra equity and when you hit your hand they are likely to misread it.

Misreading can take at least two forms. They may expect you to have flopped two pair or a small set and give too much action in the mistaken belief they have the best hand. Or they may suspect you of having a flush draw and don't recognize the made straight. Then they call down with literally anything.

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]
i dont like donking or check raising the flop. you dont want it headsup and that's the likely outcome of either action (mp will usually fold).

[/ QUOTE ]
As you can see from analyzing the turn they usually fold anyway. If you can chase MP off this flop it's unlikely you would have been paid later on.

Getting headsup in a big pot is not a terrible evil. If you come out attacking MP may fold a pocket pair and leave you headsup with AQ or something. Once in while you'll win by spiking a pair or betting Button off his hand. This is especially true if Button is the type of player who likes to test his overcards by raising them. Betting out may fold MP after which Button does his thing and calls your 3bet. Then when he misses the turn he folds. You steal the pot without investing much of any equity in your semibluff.

[milesdyson]

20/10/2 coldcapping OTB against two tags + K87 flop = we will not win this pot unimproved.

i don't want to get HU on the flop because i'd rather see one bet go in 3-way than 2+ bets go in 2-way.

[Oink]

[ QUOTE ]
i dont like donking or check raising the flop. you dont want it headsup and that's the likely outcome of either action (mp will usually fold).

on the turn, i think a bet is good if button were more aggressive. i don't think he's going to raise with AA or AK, whereas he'll always bet these. i want 2 bets to go in here, and i don't think there's any good way to get MP involved in that.

MP holding AQ/AT is a factor too. i doubt it matters much whether he sees the river with these for one bet though.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good stuff

This board hits both their ranges so c/r'ing should make Hero a nice profit on average. On the other hand, if Button is fairly passive he isnt raising the donk a lot. Donking is only good if Hero gets to 3-bet since it will not get checked through a lot.

I really think this is an easy c/r.

[Bruce D]

With greater than 50% equity on the flop, for those considering any action that will get the play heads up, isnt't the only thing we really fear is him holding KK?

The pot is already big. We shouldn't be concerned about saving bets or getting more money in the pot. We should be concerned about winning it. We want AT to fold in this case as well as AQ. AK won't fold, but we really want to increase our chances of winning this pot. If we spike a 9 or a T on the turn it will be great to have AT and AQ already folded. If they are still in the hand they would be correct to draw for the river for a gutshot or an overcard. I want these holdings to fear a raise from the capper and fold on the flop.