Straight faces river raise from unknown

[tufat23]

dude, its just a combination of pokerstove, bayes theorem and tufat23 regression.

note: you have to use the prime number regression under the new beta model because its HU on the river

[MikeyPatriot]

I pushed (I figured villain had two pair most of the time here), villain called and showed 7s5s.

So is a push real bad here?

[tufat23]

not unless u think u can bluff him off a low FD, which is possible if he goes to billions of levels... but never at NL100.

u should also realise bluffing a flush on this board is tough, cos its not obv he hit.

i assume u were shoving for value, but i'm gonna tell u ure VERY often not good here

[fees]

LOL how is this a flush? shove all in and let him call you down with his set/two pair that he tried to slowplay

[tufat23]

[ QUOTE ]
LOL how is this a flush? shove all in and let him call you down with his set/two pair that he tried to slowplay

[/ QUOTE ]


thanks for donating

[orange]

i cawl river

[Jay Riall]

[ QUOTE ]
LOL how is this a flush? shove all in and let him call you down with his set/two pair that he tried to slowplay

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL play a few hundred thousand more hands and then come back to this hand and see how wrong you are.

[ronitonline]

This is easily a flush, I never raise the river here.

[MikeyPatriot]

[ QUOTE ]
LOL play a few hundred thousand more hands and then come back to this hand and see how wrong you are.

[/ QUOTE ]

After some thought after the hand, I definitely agree that this is a flush a lot. With no reads, I think a raise isn't good.

[ikestoys]

This is a push and its not close. You have no reason to put him on spades and he does this with plenty of two pairs. I'm not quite sure why everyone automatically assumes he must have a backdoor flush draw here.

plus villain has ~30 left right? ez push

plus villain limped button, which automatically makes him terrible