Tough spot with AQo in the SB and UTG+1 raise, $650 ME Qualifier

[WarDekar]

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Why is everyone checking this flop???

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I'm checking to get bluffed at by KK/QQ/JJ, to get "value-bets" from AJ/AT besides AK (yeah, those are not likely from UTG+1 raiser, but who knows). There are no draws on the board to be afraid of realistically (especially since we had Ad). If he's behind, he has 2-3 outs. If he is ahead, we have 3 outs. Let's try to widen the villain's range with which chips go into the pot.

If you bet...well yeah, he's not folding the unlikely AJ/AT anyway I suppose. But JJ-KK can get away.

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This is exactly why I checked, I'm folding out anything like TT-KK, maybe a weak A. If I check here I can force him to pretty much c-bet anything he raised with.

The question is now, do I raise on the flop here or call? Again if I raise I'm going to fold out anything less than a pair of Aces, maybe even weak Aces, and certainly NOT AK - so why check/raise the flop?

I called the flop:

Flop: (t350) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets t250</font>, Hero calls t250.

Turn: (t850) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero ???


Now what? Check/call again? Lead out? Check/push (awful idea I think)

What's our river plan if a Diamond comes? If another broadway comes? If a blank comes?

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Why is everyone checking this flop???

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Ahhhhhhhhhh... my bad! I thought you were the one who raised PF and he was the one who called from the SB.

Yes, checking seems good/obvious.

[kutuz_off]

K doesn't change much, except if we are against KK (congratulations to him in that case). J would be a much worse turn which I'd consider check-folding. Check-call here again planning to do the same on the river. He will (should) bet smallish with both AK and worse aces, for different reasons though.

I'd check-call diamond river and maybe check-fold to an oversized bet if a broadway card rivers.

[WarDekar]

Turn: (t850) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets t450</font>, Hero calls t450.

River: (t1750) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero ????


So the river kinda F-ed with my mind here. If it were any non-broadway I was planning on leading out for value and to block in case he did have some kind of weak 2p I didn't want to commit my stack. Now that a T has fallen, what's my line here? Check/call again regardless of bet size? Check/call up to a certain point?

[kutuz_off]

I don't see what betting accomplishes on the river. He isn't folding two pairs or anything else that beats you. You only have 1100 left. However, if you check he isn't betting worse Aces either, most likely. He may bet AQ. Check and hope he checks too. I'm somewhat of a calling station, so I'd call down to the bitter end. Or fold...depending on gut feel.

I dunno...maybe I need to rethink earlier streets. That's my SOP though.

Edit: Actually, in this particular tournament I'd fold if he puts me all-in. I value survival a whole lot more in $650 WSOP qual, with its unusual blinds and payout structures.

Edit2: in light of the above edit, it might make sense to revise one of the earlier streets to bet-folding somewhere along the way.

[WarDekar]

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I don't see what betting accomplishes on the river. He isn't folding two pairs or anything else that beats you. You only have 1100 left. However, if you check he isn't betting worse Aces either, most likely. He may bet AQ. Check and hope he checks too. I'm somewhat of a calling station, so I'd call down to the bitter end. Or fold...depending on gut feel.

I dunno...maybe I need to rethink earlier streets. That's my SOP though.

Edit: Actually, in this particular tournament I'd fold if he puts me all-in. I value survival a whole lot more in $650 WSOP qual, with its unusual blinds and payout structures.

Edit2: in light of the above edit, it might make sense to revise one of the earlier streets to bet-folding somewhere along the way.

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Obviously I'm not betting the river now, I checked,

Villain bets 550 (Leaving me 525 or so behind)

Your move?


The only reason I had trouble deciding what to do on this hand is because it was the $650 sat, if this is any other tournament I don't have nearly as much issue with check/calling him down, but then again I may have re-popped him PF too. My goal in this hand being a $650 was to try and keep the pot small and manageable and NOT lose my entire stack if I didn't have a winning hand.

Pushing at any point gets called only by better hands IMO, well betting at all really, and check/calling was my only option I thought. But at what point do I let this go? CAN I let this go?

[kutuz_off]

I used to be fond of "check-call flop, lead turn" move, because it confuses so many people and leads them to make mistakes. I don't know if it applies here though.

On the river...I think timing tell kind of matters. If it was a very quick bet, it usually means a pre-mediated move that was going to happen regardless of the river. AK or bust, in other words. If he starts mulling for a bit, it is more indicative of someone who outdrew you on the river. And yes, common 2+2 wisdom is that you can't rely on timing tells. I don't buy that.

[WarDekar]

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I used to be fond of "check-call flop, lead turn" move, because it confuses so many people and leads them to make mistakes. I don't know if it applies here though.

On the river...I think timing tell kind of matters. If it was a very quick bet, it usually means a pre-mediated move that was going to happen regardless of the river. AK or bust, in other words. If he starts mulling for a bit, it is more indicative of someone who outdrew you on the river. And yes, common 2+2 wisdom is that you can't rely on timing tells. I don't buy that.

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I think timing tells can be useful. I should add he took a little while before betting the turn. I should also add that I took my bank down to like 160 before calling (starts at 180 I believe) his turn bet. He bet out in a standard amount of time on the river, not immediate, but not much hesitation either.

[SkyyCaptain]

I don't usually play at this level so my advice may be worthless, all the same:

Since you delved into your time bank he may have decided this pot is winnable, especially since you checked the river. Since he has you well covered I'd think its an argument for him bluffing, since he can afford to be wrong, but you're going to have issue betting off most of your stack.

If he varies his bet sizes then note that his preflop bet is in the "call me" range and he's holding AK or AA, maybe KK and on a slim chance AQ, if he doesn't I'd call this a bluff and try to choke down a loss if it was one.

[grafyx]

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