10/25 NL vs. total fish

[Bill King]

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what twp said. this isnt online, even some bad players will fold AA/KK to a flop shove id imagine. so yeah, id call most of the time on the flop once he raises, but not for reasons OP stated.

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i still dont think this is the correct play.. you have to know he's going to get away from AA/KK here every time to play this hand like this.. and you're not THAT deep.


get the money in and let him make the mistake.

[RaiseAndPray]

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If u are sure of your read I think u should just flat call the turn aswell. With pocketpair over qq he will have atleast 8 outs++. So if you have enough ice to just call the turn bet I think thats the best play.

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If villain holds QQ he has 13 outs going to the river.

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If villain has QQ then he has 16 outs (4xK, 4x8, 2xQ, 3x9, and 3x3).

And by the way, I did raise all-in on turn, he absolutely instacalled, and nailed a K on river to go runner-straight with QQ.

I leave the hand feeling like I really could have, and should have, saved over $3,000.

[Seputro]

Based on your assumption that you "know" villain will call a flop push and your LAG image, I don't see any benefit of waiting for the turn to push it all in.

Potential scare cards on the turn could only increase the chance that villain will release an inferior hand. Scare cards potentially include 8,9,10,J,Q,K,A.

You are way ahead on the flop here. A different case could be made for extremely deep stacks against an aggressive opponent where you put him on a monster draw (OESD + FD), but this is not the case here.

I don't think you should worry about "variance" against a fish. It'll only make you second guess yourself and possibly cost you some big pots in the future.

Also, it's extremely difficult to be an effective LAG player and be worried about variance.

Possibly move down until you aren't afraid of such variance.

(i had a more extensive explanation but the forum switchover deleted the post along with some of the others)

[RaiseAndPray]

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Also, it's extremely difficult to be an effective LAG player and be worried about variance.

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I appreciate the advice. I sincerely would have liked to read your "extensive explanation". When I read your statement it sounded 100% correct, but now that I think a little bit more I'm not so sure. I still feel there are certain situations, the times you've spotted will have the most variance, where you can SAVE yourself MORE money than you risk losing in potential winnings. This would make your overall profit better in the long run. Is that not true? The statement I quoted above, is that really true? I'd really like to hear from some other LAG successful players. I don't feel as though developing a LAG image necessarily involves abandoning all caution.

And in reference to stepping down games...I'm not asking these questions because I am intimidated in the game, I am up $23k since the game started in December. What I want to do is adjust my game accordingly to make my profits maximized...