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#11
03-31-2007, 05:39 PM
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Re: Ben Roberts Full Tilt Article
[ QUOTE ]
I will say one thing tho. When learning to play, I'd much rather go into it with the mindset of poker being 100% skillful, than believing there is any luck in there. This will push you much harder to re-examine your game after losses. [/ QUOTE ] I really like this reasoning. Thanks. 
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#12
03-31-2007, 05:57 PM
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Re: Ben Roberts Full Tilt Article
[ QUOTE ]
ben is way wrong. just sim it. esp live. [/ QUOTE ] 1.) How do you run a sim in which one player has significantly more skill than the rest? 2.) How do you run a sim live? 3.) Note his qualifier 'in the long run'.
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#14
03-31-2007, 09:24 PM
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Re: Ben Roberts Full Tilt Article
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] ben is way wrong. just sim it. esp live. [/ QUOTE ] 1.) How do you run a sim in which one player has significantly more skill than the rest? 2.) How do you run a sim live? 3.) Note his qualifier 'in the long run'. [/ QUOTE ] 1. Give him a high expected WR 2. Assume few hands per hour 3. See the distribution of money earned over a career running sims. You will knock your socks off how different two players who play every hand identically can earn very different amounts of money. Add into this analysis that you move up every time you hit a certain money threshhold and that increases your earn and you will really see what happens. I'm sure Ben is a very good player, because I've heard that from many reliable sources included Boosted right here in this thread. That doesn't stop him from being dead wrong about this issue, which is a purely objective issue, which if he took the time to do some math I'm sure he would realise that he is dead wrong about. That being said, I understand where he's coming from and what he means and I agree with him. But he has expressed himself very poorly. And what he actually said is dead wrong.
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#15
03-31-2007, 11:01 PM
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Re: Ben Roberts Full Tilt Article
http://www.agribiz.com/merchdiz/cointoss/cointoss.html
a coinflip graph check it for a million flips and tell me if it goes back to even every time some people are luckier, even longrun, than others.
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#16
03-31-2007, 11:30 PM
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Re: Ben Roberts Full Tilt Article
[ QUOTE ]
http://www.agribiz.com/merchdiz/cointoss/cointoss.html a coinflip graph check it for a million flips and tell me if it goes back to even every time some people are luckier, even longrun, than others. [/ QUOTE ] coinflip sim = obviously gonna be huge variance. reprogram the sim with 70/30 flips (typical nlhe "getting it in good") and the graphs will look alot more similar. I'd do this myself (I do have an unused degree in computer science) but I'm drunk and don't care that much.
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#17
04-01-2007, 12:26 AM
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Re: Ben Roberts Full Tilt Article
[ QUOTE ]
reprogram the sim with 70/30 flips (typical nlhe "getting it in good") and the graphs will look alot more similar. I'd do this myself (I do have an unused degree in computer science) but I'm drunk and don't care that much. [/ QUOTE ] I'm sure you realize that even being a great NL player it's more realistic to imagine yourself being in a series of 55/45 flips. Also, as TWP points out, if you move up regularly (as you should) that greatly decreases how close we are to "the long run", and increases the large effect that can come from some short term luck.
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#18
04-01-2007, 12:38 AM
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Re: Ben Roberts Full Tilt Article
No one's saying someone will be DOWN in the long run if they are a big winner. But if both are truly 5bb/100 winners (in expectation, from how much equity they have when the money goes in), one player could be a 7bb/100 winner and the other a 3bb/100 winner in 'a long time' even if not in 'the long run' which neither player will ever see (especially if they play live).
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#19
04-01-2007, 03:39 AM
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Re: Ben Roberts Full Tilt Article
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] http://www.agribiz.com/merchdiz/cointoss/cointoss.html a coinflip graph check it for a million flips and tell me if it goes back to even every time some people are luckier, even longrun, than others. [/ QUOTE ] coinflip sim = obviously gonna be huge variance. reprogram the sim with 70/30 flips (typical nlhe "getting it in good") and the graphs will look alot more similar. I'd do this myself (I do have an unused degree in computer science) but I'm drunk and don't care that much. [/ QUOTE ] I'd love to find a game where I have a consistent 70/30 edge. Or are you consistently stacking off with nuts v. second nuts and never getting coolered?
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