Mr. Inconsistent : KTs UTG

[benwood]

You are correct about the numbers,rafiki.If you get a chance,pick up a copy of "The Theory of Poker",by Sklansky.

[rafiki]

Ya I've got it actually. On the shelf with all the usuals. (gordon, caro, etc...)

I just haven't touched them in so long. I found the more I memorized, the less I really understood. So I tried doing more practicle examples so that some of the math would make sense to me. For whatever reason, despite doing years of science and math in university, I just always sucked at stats.

[3rdCheckRaise]

I think Rafiki is right. I think once in 9 times we will see A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]-A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or 99. Without club draw on the flop i fold the river too.

[rafiki]

lol the more I think about it, the more I wonder if we're even good 1 in 9. You gotta have some big balls to raise the turn after being check raised on the flop, and then showing air on the river when we call. Any good players on here do that ? Do you ever do it hoping for the ideal river card to complete your bluff, knowing that a pair of kings couldn't call a river: A, 6, 7, 8, club ? lol I might try that. I'll probably get owned [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[benwood]

If you call a long-shot without quite proper odds,your average loss is small.If you call a 9 to 1 shot with a hand that will really only win once every 13 hands,let's say,it's no big deal.

(Any of you math guys like to put some numbers on this?)

[danzasmack]

whooops. Online I call. I don't know why I thought this was live.

TBH though betting [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]s here is terrible.

[rafiki]

[ QUOTE ]
If you call a long-shot without quite proper odds,your average loss is small.If you call a 9 to 1 shot with a hand that will really only win once every 13 hands,let's say,it's no big deal.

(Any of you math guys like to put some numbers on this?)

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually good point made in there. If the goal of the turn call was to only continue if you made a straight, then at 5 to 1 on the turn you're for sure priced out of the whole thing.

I'm curious about the point you're trying to make with the 9 to 1 vs 13 to 1. Do you mean at what point is the mistake so small that it's not really significant ? I could be wrong, but I imagine that has a lot to do with sample size. Certainly as your total number of hands tends to infiniti, any call where the pot is laying incorrect odds of any amount is going to have a very big impact on your profits. But in a given night, your sample size may be so small that you'd never see the impact. Or maybe I'm not really following what you mean.

[Entity]

The point on the turn isn't only to continue if you make a straight. Since his range will be something like AK/AA, FSDR, and then 88/KK, you've got more than enough outs + the chance that your hand is good and villain won't usually fire 3 barrels here on this board.

Rob

[rafiki]

[ QUOTE ]
The point on the turn isn't only to continue if you make a straight. Since his range will be something like AK/AA, FSDR, and then 88/KK, you've got more than enough outs + the chance that your hand is good and villain won't usually fire 3 barrels here on this board.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

I took the time to show that we don't have more then enough outs. The basis to continue should really be about feeling we are ahead. If we're playing abc poker according to pot odds.

[James.]

[ QUOTE ]
you've got more than enough outs + the chance that your hand is good and villain won't usually fire 3 barrels here on this board.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, before i noticed that we had picked up the gutter i assumed we were calling the turn raise based on the board and the frequency that we see a FSDR from a worse hand.