($55) JJ Hand

[tewall]

He just said he wants action. He's not mucking.

[tewall]

I want to see if I'm getting your logic right. You're thinking that if he had an overpair to your JJ, he would have re-raised pre-flop. So when he called PF, you're expecting the flop missed him, which is should 85% of the time or so, assuming he would call with any two. Given he's more likely to call with Queens then other other cards, we could lower it, but you're still ahead probably 75% of the time or more. So you check hoping to get action on a bluff. Hmmm. Interesting.

So I suppose the alternatives to consider would be a cb vs. checking. The cb has the advantage of looking like an auto-bet after you raised pre-flop, as well as protecting your hand if he's got overcard(s). You're thinking that the risk of it getting checked behind and him picking up an overcard which matches his hand is worth the check. Well he probably only has 2 or 3 outs, assuming he has on over card or lower pocked pair, so that's not too big a risk.

That's a very interesting line. I'm glad you posted it. Good food for thought.

[45suited]

Jeff, what are you putting him on after he flat calls your pre-flop raise?

The last time I remember this exact sequence in level 2 in one of my games (EP call, I raise to 130, button flat calls), button had KK. A weirdly played KK, but KK nonetheless. To flat call that much of his stack...

Then again, there are plenty of donks out there.

[tewall]

Would it make any difference if an Ace or King came on the turn?

[curtains]

I would bet the flop...your opponent is almost surely a moron ,this you know because he called off a huge % of his stack preflop and he is so shortstacked. Also you may surmise that he is also somewhat passive, since he called instead of raised, thus you can't always count on him to bet a worse hand than yours. Also there is a lot of money in the pot and so on, thus fancy plays are almost always less effective/desirable in large pots. I would bet some normal amount on the flop and probably call any raise, as the chances they will decide to put all their chips in with 77 is too great IMO.

[jeffraider]

45s: I'm basically not putting him on any hand at this point, as there's not many hands a solid player would flatcall like that with. As soon as he did it I figured him for a donk and just decided to pretend this was a $22 with a few more chips.

tewall: You've got my reasoning basically perfect. I'm playing this hand to let a short stack who just invested a ton of his stack preflop bluff at me into a pot that would magically bring him back to a healthy starting stack. When I glanced at his stack size I checked instantly, as I've seen lots of stacks make a similar move when presented the opportunity. Also, if an A or a K came it could well make a difference in my turn play (especially if it were an A). I'd probably be more inclined to check-call a small bet and pray for a showdown.

curtains: I think you've got an excellent point about him being passive, and I'll be considering that in the future. Checking is pretty bad if I don't have a reasonable expectation he'll bluff at me, and considering the passive preflop play I may have just lead out here, though I feel his stack size is probably just compelling enough to keep me checking here more often than betting.