What is your longest downswing/upswing due to variance?

[trader01]

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My horrendous downswing that caused me to withdraw all my money from online poker was about 15k hands and about $5k at $1/$2 NL. I've never seen anything so disgusting in my life.

I used to think 20+ buy-in downswings were BS, but they are there. Probably 5-7 of my 25 BI downer could be attributed to bad play due to running bad, I tried and tried to overcome and not tilt, but I couldn't. Taking a few weeks off. Probably going to rebuild at $100 to get my confidence back, but I won't be on for a long while.

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Here's an interesting question: what were the tables like at $1/2 NL where you were playing? What was the average seen flop%? PFR? VPIP? What were you running at in terms of BB/100 before your downswing?

My BB/100 has been very high (10+ BB/100), but then I only play against bad players, leave the tables when the VPIP/PFR drops too much, make sure that there is at least one really stupid donkey at the table every time, and that the bets are big enough to pay me off when I hit a monster hand. If I'm only going to make 4BB when I have AA, that is not the table I want to play at. Given all of these conditions, and the fact that I am constantly monitoring them and walking away when things tighten up, I fail to see how I could possibly suffer something like a 5000 hand downswing. It's hard to imagine a run of cards so bad that would take me out like that when I am playing against people that consistently call HUGE raises when they're only holding mid-pair or ace high. Does anyone disagree with this notion, or am I right in assuming that the really bad downturns can't happen against players that are so much worse than me?

[MasterLJ]

Really bad runs, can, do and will happen to all players.

I was playing loose tables with donkeys.

First hand that comes to mind (in my last session).

I hold TT. A crazy 26/22 horrible player opens from UTG. I re-pop big like always (he raises to $8, I make it $28). He tanks and calls. Flop is Qs Js Ts. I has a set. He checks, I bet, he raises AI. I call. OH NOZ, He be snappin' my set with 8h 9h after calling a 3-bet OOP. Repeat that situation about 20 times, add in a bunch of other crap and NEVER boat up, and you have my last 15k hands.

[trader01]

[ QUOTE ]
Really bad runs, can, do and will happen to all players.

I was playing loose tables with donkeys.

First hand that comes to mind (in my last session).

I hold TT. A crazy 26/22 horrible player opens from UTG. I re-pop big like always (he raises to $8, I make it $28). He tanks and calls. Flop is Qs Js Ts. I has a set. He checks, I bet, he raises AI. I call. OH NOZ, He be snappin' my set with 8h 9h after calling a 3-bet OOP. Repeat that situation about 20 times, add in a bunch of other crap and NEVER boat up, and you have my last 15k hands.

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OK, I have to take you to task on this hand. First of all, you shouldn't be pre-flop raising that big with TT - there is an excellent chance that he is holding an A,K,Q, or J, all of which would kill your TT if any of those 4 cards came up on the flop.

Secondly, the flop came up as both a straight draw AND a flush draw, and you bet your set - that is fine... but the minute he went all in, you should have folded. That is an absolute no-brainer. Here is the list of cards that could have beat your set: QQ, JJ, AK (any suit), 89 (any suit), or any two spades. That is a hell of a lot of hands, and that's just talking on the flop, never mind if he only held one spade and still would have a 35% chance of taking you out if another spade hit on the turn or the river (since I know you didn't have a spade from the distribution). That's also not assuming a possibility of him chasing a straight draw, which these idiots seem to hit with regular frequency.

This was a bad call on your part, no offense. The only dumb thing he did was call huge pre-flop with only 89 suited, but having played enough against these idiots I can tell you that a whole bunch of them think that 2 suited cards is "a real good thing" to be betting big on, so you have to assume that the guy who called your pre-flop raise could be holding J-4 suited and be thinking that he's got a good hand. I had a guy who raised me huge with that the other week and hit a boat on the flop... when I asked him how he could be so stupid to raise with J4, he said "I like jacks, they're lucky for me". Geez.

Basically the minute a flush draw hits the board, you HAVE to assume that they are holding one, no matter what they bet before. Ditto for a straight draw. The ONLY time I feel confident against these morons when I am holding a set is when I know the board doesn't hold a flush or a straight possibility, and even then I have to assume that they are going to chase it unless I bet pretty big.

I used to play these hands like the way you described, and I had some pretty big up and down swings - but ever since I started playing my new (tighter) way, I have been killing these idiots. Here's how I would have played your hand... holding TT, just call his raise. Let the flop come up, he checks, I would make a small to mid-sized bet to feel him out with my set. If he goes all in, I am out. If he calls, I would assume that he is either slow playing me or chasing, so he will probably check the turn... I would check as well whether I hit the boat or not, which gets me to the river for free (and/or slow-plays him if hit the boat on the turn). Either way if he bets the river large and I don't have a boat by that point I am out. This type of hand happens to me all the time (just like it happens to you), but I am not losing big amounts of money because of it. Sometimes I get lucky and hit my boat, which kills his flush or straight that he thinks is so wonderful... these guys often don't realize the boat possibility is out there. They often forget that you can have a straight as well... just about the only thing that scares them is a flush board when they are not holding one, I guess because seeing 3 cards of the same color gets through their thick skulls to the tiny brain that lies beneath.

This is all just some info and advice, from a guy that used to play hands the way you just did, but changed recently and has been having a lot more success against donkeys...