30/60 Stud Hi Flush

[SweetLuckyMe]

[ QUOTE ]
If we 3-bet can we fold to a cap?

[/ QUOTE ] Ummm. No. You win this hand 80%+ of the time - and pot is too big to fold for one more bet.

[USC@MICH]

blumpkin22.....guess what JTMARLIN cant go to the casino for awhile....lolololol Im going to track you down at seat st your table..soooon. lololololol

[Andy B]

No.

[Andy B]

Raise fourth. Three-bet the river. He is probably raising with a King-high flush.

[Micturition Man]

What Poorlawyer said.

[Sevenfold]

Easy three bet. I don't think he was just calling with anything that beat Qs up along the way, so I think it is extremely unlikely he filled here.

He needs the A spades to beat you here. Assuming a flush, he has 3 of the remaining 11 spades in the hole (He has the ace about 30% of the time).

So it is about 70/30 you win even when he makes a flush.

You are laying 2-1 on the 3 bet (67/33).

So you have an overlay, even if you call and lose 100% of the time whenever he 4 bets.

Given that he could also be raising many other lower non-flush hands (and maybe a few funky full houses) you have an even bigger overlay.

I would only not raise if you were playing 'higher' on short money, and maybe wouldn't want the variance, but other than that, pop it one more time.


Edit: I'm going to argue against myself here. In pure math, he is 30/70 not to have the ace. In reality he is much more likely to re-raise a three flush holding the ace. I'm not sure we have an easy three bet given that thought.

I still three bet it though.

[blumpkin]

"Edit: I'm going to argue against myself here. In pure math, he is 30/70 not to have the ace. In reality he is much more likely to re-raise a three flush holding the ace. I'm not sure we have an easy three bet given that thought."

This is very important to the analysis.

In short, on 3rd street it is unlikely that he has a 3-flush. His most likely hand is a big pair. However, after his river raise, his most likely hand is a flush, and if he has the flush, he is quite likely to have the A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] BECAUSE of his third street play.

Those who are saying it is a clear 3-bet are not thinking about these important details. The decision is quite close IMO.

[HOWMANY]

I think it most depends on what he'll do with a hand worse than a flush if you 3bet. If he's smart and is folding then a 3bet is not worth much. If he's bad and keeping you honest then I think it's close.

[Micturition Man]

Yeah but he can also have aces up, kings up, or trips. He doesn't have to be putting you on anything more than queens up.

I think the flush point is pretty obvious. If he does have a flush there is a very good chance it is AK high.

[blumpkin]

"I think it most depends on what he'll do with a hand worse than a flush if you 3bet. If he's smart and is folding then a 3bet is not worth much. If he's bad and keeping you honest then I think it's close."

I very much agree, and would argue that even the better players online will still make some calls are crying calls at best. Whenever you try and estimate how frequently they will call with losing hands, you will almost always be underestimating.