Dump the overpair?

[ShawnHoo]

[ QUOTE ]
Call down and probably lose but maybe win.

[/ QUOTE ]

[goofball]

Yeah, just call-call-call.

[Nate.]

Whoa. This looks like a fold or maybe a call flop/fold turn to me.

Is this a special California question or something?

--Nate

[private joker]

Nate seems to be the only one who doesn't want a call down, and I think he's right. How many live players are really 5-betting PF without a hand that beats JJ? It's so, so, so rare in live games that I was praying to flop a set or I'd be done. But I decided to call the flop and see if he fired again on the turn.

The turn actually gave me a J-high flush draw so I called again. The river was an Ace and now I can't really beat anything at all so I folded, and he showed me AA.

I like to think I could have found a river fold if it were not an A, and I also like to think I could have found a turn fold if it wasn't a third of some suit.

[that_pope]

Eh, similar hand happened to me the other day in my 8/16 "waaaa, not medium limit". I raised a kill pot (that makes it 16/32, a middle limit!) in middle position with JJ, killer was to my direct left, folded out of turn. Folded to old lady in SB who reraised, I called. Flop came 9 high, she bet, I called. Turn another blank, she bet, I figured old lady doesn't 3bet preflop, and bet twice from out of position without hand, I fold and show JJ, she shows AA and we go on to next hand.

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
Whoa. This looks like a fold or maybe a call flop/fold turn to me.



[/ QUOTE ]


"Call flop-fold turn" (and it's somewhat more edgy sister, "call turn-fold river") are in general plays that I love in theory and bother me in reality. How much do we need to know about our opponent to be comfortable folding an overpair in a 7 bb pot here? Aren't close to a majority of not-super-weird unknowns firing again with AK here if they ever have it?

I mean, it is certainly possible to compose the probabilities in such a way that it would be correct to peel the flop here hoping to see villain check the turn (or spike a set) and then folding a turn "unimproved," but that seems like a pretty narrow band of probabilities. I feel vastly more comfortable showing down.

[private joker]

Will -- I think our PF 4-bet defines our hand enough that folding the turn is safer than you're letting on. I think if you're going to showdown JJ HU if you get 5-bet PF, it may be more cost-effective to just call the PF 3-bet and go from there.

[ShawnHoo]

Playing at Commerce 40/80 this past week, I saw two folks put in 4 or 5 bets out of the blinds with AJ and AK; the person with AJ was someone who I had always regarded as tight/ABC. (Oddly enough, they were both up against AA.)

So no, I don't think you're always up against an overpair. Of course, you were there and we weren't, so you'd know better than us if he's the kind to go crazy with just an ace.

[private joker]

Speaking of Commerce (to go on a tangent for a sec) -- Shawn (and others) did you notice that Commerce was insanely juicy this weekend?

Usually (at least this was the case last year) the end of the tournament and the days just after it (i.e. yesterday) are typically not just slow, but full of tighter players. But yesterday's 20/40 at 4pm had 4-5 games running, and my table was disturbingly soft. Some of the loosest players I've ever seen at Commerce were spraying chips all over the place.

It explains my $1400+ loss in 5 hours. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[ShawnHoo]

I was there Thurs afternoon/night, Fri night, and Sunday evening. There were numerous "family pots" (both raised and unraised) every night at my table.