Oops, I did it again! A bluff @ 200nl

[MasterLJ]

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Dude is 42/15 through smallish sample (~40 hands), has check-folded to my CBs a couple times, no other history. I showed down KK a hand or two before this one if he's paying any attention. He paused a little before calling turn, and has $74.10 left on the river.

Full Tilt Poker
$1/$2 No Limit Hold'em Ring Game
6 Players
LegoPoker Hand Converter

<font color="black">Stack Sizes</font>
MP: $40.60
CO: $200
BTN: $284.85
SB: $142.1
BB: $190
Hero (UTG): $276.75

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> Q K ($3, 6 players)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $7</font>, MP folds, CO folds, BTN folds, SB calls $6, BB folds

<font color="black">Flop:</font> 7 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($16, 2 players)
<font color="red">SB bets $10</font>, Hero calls $10

<font color="black">Turn:</font> 7 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] [A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]] ($36, 2 players)
<font color="red">SB bets $12</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $52</font>, SB calls $40

<font color="black">River:</font> 7 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] [8] ($140, 2 players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $74</font>

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The range of hands you can get to fold is extremely thin here. I think it's a pretty poor place to bluff.

[goofyballer]

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why do you feel inclined to call his flop bet when the only other history you have is him check/folding the flop multiple times after you raise pre? it probably means he has something.

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Really? I would think he'd c/r flop or try to stack-a-donk if he actually had something like trips here. I think my overs are likely to be good, and I can do fun stuff like this (WHEE!).

[PBJaxx]

The only hands I can see you folding out here are like 89, 9T, and 8T of hearts. I could see a donk blocking flop with a gutshot, then calling the turn with his new found FD. You might fold a jack. I dunno, I don't really think this is +EV.

[ikestoys]

first of all... bad player to bluff.

second... if it was a good player, i'd call you with a J here a lot. the ace isn't that bad of a scare card to me and an 7 seems unlikely. you raise any flop with QQ+. Unless i've noticed you float alot, i call with KJ.

[Clever Nickname]

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I have a feeling he is not folding anything he called the turn raise with on the river.

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Especially given the odds he's getting on his call.

[ciki57]

<font color="red"> <u>NEVER</font></u> bluff a player who has VP$IP 40+ and calls turn raise.

This has lower EV than calling preflop allin with 72o.