Totally new poker strategy, want to get your input

[Trillos]

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Only way it is profitable is if you buyin for the max and shove in a high limit game and then leave with the blinds and do it very rarely.

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i believe this i quite wrong..

The amount ur FE increases do not compensate for your enhanced losses when you are called.

Furthermore, at higher limits, lets say NL1000+ you would get quite alot of calls from some tough players with AT and stuff, and ull most of the time be behind.

[oakley77]

Firstoff, tough players will not call with AT for a 1000. That is ridiculous... when using this style u are more worried about bad players than good players. Good players will simply not call u without QQ+ if you are only doing this once a week they wont really catch on.
I know because I play 5/10NL, good players do not want to take big coinflips for a buyin. Even with TT, if someone shoves its a fold for 100BBs unless you know that the person is shoving with crap

[Mauberly]

I don't like strategies that require too high a number of victories to realise a profit. In horse racing it is called being a bridge jumper, when you bet on a heavy favorite to show(1-3rdplace) A 2.00 bet pays back 2.10 cents. You bet 10,000 to win 500 but then the horse doesn't finish so now you lost ten thousand. Can it be done successfully? Yes.But it makes your risk level rise really high and your profit margin will be razor thin. You have to churn 100,000's of dollars to make anything resembling money and you only have to lose 1 in 19 times to be back at the start line.

Although the numbers for your stategy in poker will be different, I think it is a good description of your intent except unlike horse racing where some players can create a winning formula with it, I do not think it will work in poker for a number of reasons.... but hey, thats what experiments are for - better your money than mine. Post the results.

[jared701]

won't be any results... I decided since the min. buyin was 20x big blind it was too risky. Now I am just focusing on improving my game and trying to become profitable on single table tournaments, im listed as a fish right now on sharkscope.com [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] Gotta improve so I can change that

[alphatmw]

ok the fact that you thought your random hand might end up being a 10% dog to a caller shows that instead of thinking of a new poker strategy, you need to learn the absolute beginner strategy first.

[oakley77]

you're right, it isn't poker with the strategy. i think that it will be somewhat profitable but not to the extent where u could actually make significant money on it since ppl will catch on to it.
I would much rather advise you to brush up on how to beat a game playing with a full buyin and to play some real poker.

[mr_npiv]

This is what I have understood so far:
1) buy in for minimum amount
2) go all in
3) leave table

considering then the following stats:

minimum buyin is 50xBB
you will get called ~ 12% of the time (big hands)
when you do get called, you are ~ 35% likely to win
the pot on average is BB, SB + 1 limper = 2.5BB

EV when called (12%) =
35 * (2.5BB + 50BB) - 65 * (50 BB) / 100 = -14.125 BB

EV in total =
88 * 2.5 BB + 12( - 14.125 BB ) / 100 = 0.505 BB


[img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

I actually wanted to prove this cheap tactic would have a negative expectation, apparantly not.

granted of course my starting presumptions are anywhere near the ballpark. Its very hard to know how many times people would call and what the real odds might be.

But fun exercise ... [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[albinoskunk]

you're not 35% likely to win when called. Closer to 20%.

Minimum buyin of 20BB, push called 4% of the time. When called, you are 25% to win. Pot is 2.5BB (including limper, who folds some percent of the time (assuming 100). review the concept of first-in-vigorish).

Now do the math.

[mr_npiv]

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Now do the math.

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do it yourself [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

unless you have statistical figures to back up your 4% and other numbers, they are just like mine, educated guesses.

and on PP microlimit, minimum buyin is 50BBs

[Bad Beat Maker]

Is this serious? I mean you clearly don't play enough. Most of the time people will respect the shortstack LESS and call with AJ suited and the such and basically any pocket pair 99+.

You are very welcome to do this at my tables.

Also as someone posted, people like you are VERY annoying and honestly I love seeing them go broke. You are called a hit-and-runner, and for what? All of $1.50? It's much better and easier to make money in poker to just read some books, perhaps signup to card runners and actually learn and develop a play style that will work.

Like someone said, if you did this live I wouldn't be surprised if you got kicked out of the casino and/or had a goon waiting for you in the parking lot because you beat him all in with 24 offsuit and cracked his aces.