Way ahead, way behind? AJs near the bubble.

[betgo]

I don't understand how you can be way behind. You are 1% against KJ for a straight, but you are 16% against TT for a set, 18% against AQ, and 38% against AT.

I would just bet out and be prepared to get all the money in.

[Secret Squirrel]

You make a good case for checking and now I'm even more unsure how to play this in the future!

What happens when you check/call his flop bet and then he bets tempting amounts on the turn and river that you just can't fold to? I would just hate to lose my chips passively like this but agree that very few hands you beat call a continuation bet.

[stjohnychan]

I would probably push against any bet.

What are the possibilities?

He could min bet. What does this tell you? He's a bad player. Post-Oak bet, doyle hates it, but its everywhere. Either he's got a monster and he's transparently milking you, or he's weak and taking a pathetic stab at the pot. Both plays are so common they don't really give you any more information and based on your position in the tourny I still want all my chips in now. Would he keep betting at it if you smooth call? Hard to say-- he might make another min bet for $300, again either if he's milking you or if he's weakly bluffing. But if he's bluffing I think he's more likely to check it down at this point unless he improves. I think any player who would bluff weakly on the flop and turn against that board might be loose enough to call your check raise all in.

He could make a standard bet: somewhere in the 1/2 pot to pot range of $550-$1125. Here I don't think there is too much difference between calling now or raising. Even if he bets $550, you call- the pot is $2225 and you've got $1910 left. There it seems to me one of you is going to bet the turn and if you're committed to your hand you'll end up all in anyway. At least if you check raise now you're not letting him see any cards for free.

He could overbet the pot. This is kinda like the min bet in that its obviously a mistake but it doesn't tell you which way. Either he was slowplaying AA and hit a set but got nervous at the "drawtastic" board, or he was hoping to get lucky w/ 22 and didn't and panicked. Either way his all-in is prob a -EV move, but he made it. Here I'd still call-- Hopefully Caro's Stong means Weak Law is at work and I'm way ahead. This overbet to me suggests an inexperienced player more likely to have crap then have me dominated, and at least a couple of the times I am dominated I'll hit my K for the straight and really wreck the Villains life.

So no matter what it looks like I'm pushing after checking.

(Also I am pretty sure I am spelling Villain wrong and have a sneaking suspicion it might be Villian. But I can't fold it now, I mean I've used it like 12 times so I'm post committed, right?)

[betgo]

You could checkraise allin.

I don't accept the way ahead / way behind assumption. There are tons of draws on this board. You could easily bet and be raised allin by someone who is currently behind. Plus, you should have atleast 4 outs if you are behind.

If you just check it, you may give someone a chance to make a flush, straight, or 2 pair.

[gerilege]

There's a question mark in the title of the thread, because I wanted to indicate that this might be subject of the discussion as well.
Regarding TT and AQ you're right, but I would rather exclude AT from his preflop range.

[betgo]

So I bet like 700 on the flop, call a push, and push the turn if villain calls. TPGK + straight draw seems good enough.

[stjohnychan]

I think the title's gotta be "AJ: way too close to the bubble to be worrying about how far ahead they are"

I basically agree w/ what Betgo's saying (I think) that this hand is good enough at this point in the tournament that you probably need to put all your money in with it.

So with that conclusion its a matter of approach. Betgo- I know the check-raise is used way too often, but isn't this basically the situation where it's appropriate? I accepted Gerilege's idea that the bad-guy (i gave up on spelling villian) is going to bet 80% of the time if we check, no matter what he has, and also fold losing hands most of the time if we bet the flop. So isn't check-raising here an +EV move?

[A_C_Slater]

If you were deeper you could check/call but the pot is half your stack and you have top pair and a GS redraw. I bet pot and call push. IF the pot was 1/3 your stack or less I check/call flop and have a decision to make on turn if he bets again.

[AMT]

any reads would help in playing the hand....the problem is that your stack is pretty awkward to do anything but build the pot at this point. if you have a read that you cant play against heat, i would bet/fold with that read...otherwise, im looking to get it all in. id probably bet 700 as this will let the hand play itself from then on

[Easy17]

I agree with Betgo - bet this flop, be prepared to go all the way with it.

The problem with checking this flop, is you are very much setting up a drawing hand to semi-bluff all in on you, and even though you are 60 / 40 against most draws - well i would prefer to win a smaller pot without seeing the showdown rather than take a 60 / 40 of doubling up or going home right now.

If you bet the flop and hes on a draw, you at least know where you stand if he calls and you both see another card. Much better than checking and inducing a push.