Thoughts on betting on blowouts

[PropPlayer]

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Is it generally recommended to put alot of money on a guaranteed victory? Say putting down alot on a 1:9 Money Line (numbers aren't out yet) for Pistons vs. Hawks.

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Wish I had bet the Hawks.

[kdog]

Used to be a guy the Boston papers called "Ten Grand Teddy".
Two or three times a year he'd show up at one of the dog tracks and bet $10,000 on a dog to show. Always on a Grade A featured race and always on a top dog who was running exrtremely well.

Massachusetts law requires tracks to pay at least $2.10 for a winning $2 wager so Teddy was betting $10K to win $500. He showed up with his $10K two or three times a year and won every time. Nobody knew who he was but the papers always reported it.

And then one day his dog didn't break so well and got into some trouble on the turn and finished off the board. Everybody at the track that day who cashed a show ticket on that race got a nice little bonus at the window. Never heard of Teddy again.

The story is true. The lesson is you're going to win most of these type of bets. Maybe even a whole lot of them in a row. But not all of them, no matter how good the bet looks.

[plus_man]

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The story is true. The lesson is you're going to win most of these type of bets. Maybe even a whole lot of them in a row. But not all of them, no matter how good the bet looks.

[/ QUOTE ] have you heard of parlays? $$$$$

[MyTurn2Raise]

so here's my thought of the day:

Mich St is currently -3500 v Purdue at Pinny
Pinny offers an initial deposit bonus of 10% upto $500. You have to stake 3 times of your initial deposit and let the deposit and bonus sit in the account for at least 30 days before withdrawal.
Those type of extra incentives could make a game like Mich St -3500 v Purdue very, very attractive.

Of course, most sportsbooks do not take kindly to bonus chasers, but here's a chance were I'd bet a blowout if I didn't already have an account and give decent amounts of action.

[DeucesUp]

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Mich St is currently -3500 v Purdue at Pinny
Pinny offers an initial deposit bonus of 10% upto $500. You have to stake 3 times of your initial deposit and let the deposit and bonus sit in the account for at least 30 days before withdrawal.
Those type of extra incentives could make a game like Mich St -3500 v Purdue very, very attractive.

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Don't know for sure about Pinny, but most sportsbooks calculate your amount wagered towards a bonus requirement as the smaller of the amount risked or amount won (in the case of a loss, always the amount lost). Meaning a win here would get you almost nowhere towards clearing your bonus.

[Mr_J]

No victory is ever guaranteed, not even when it is rigged. No offense, but this plan is terrible and very unoriginal. I'm surprised these type of posts constantly show up on a site where ev is valued so highly. Yes I'm being harshly upfront with you, but it's for your own good.

PS, don't you realise how much your 'strategy' mirrors typical betting patterns of average joe. You don't see them win do you? You don't think the bookies take advantage of the way they think?

[craig]

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[ QUOTE ]
The story is true. The lesson is you're going to win most of these type of bets. Maybe even a whole lot of them in a row. But not all of them, no matter how good the bet looks.

[/ QUOTE ] have you heard of parlays? $$$$$

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How would a parlay in anyway make a bad bet a good bet? Especially an uncorrelated parlay? In fact, if the games are at two different times and you are hell bent on parlaying, you are better off making two seperate bets.

craig

[PropPlayer]

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[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The story is true. The lesson is you're going to win most of these type of bets. Maybe even a whole lot of them in a row. But not all of them, no matter how good the bet looks.

[/ QUOTE ] have you heard of parlays? $$$$$

[/ QUOTE ]

How would a parlay in anyway make a bad bet a good bet? Especially an uncorrelated parlay? In fact, if the games are at two different times and you are hell bent on parlaying, you are better off making two seperate bets.

craig

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Not saying it’s a good bet. But personally if I am betting 2 money lines ML -700 and -600 ML. I parlay them. Putting 13 units at risk to win 2 is to much risk for me. I risk 6 to win 2 and need both of them to win. The way I look at it is if I lose 1 and win 1 I'm still down 5 or 6. My thinking is surely flawed but it’s a barrier I've yet to overcome. I try to stay away from huge favorites anyway, this flawed rational isn't costing me much anyways.

[gdsdiscgolfer]

[ QUOTE ]
No victory is ever guaranteed, not even when it is rigged. No offense, but this plan is terrible and very unoriginal. I'm surprised these type of posts constantly show up on a site where ev is valued so highly. Yes I'm being harshly upfront with you, but it's for your own good.

PS, don't you realise how much your 'strategy' mirrors typical betting patterns of average joe. You don't see them win do you? You don't think the bookies take advantage of the way they think?

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Yea I know it doesn't work and I don't really do it. Just wanted some good talk about why.

Ironic that I used Detroit/Atlanta in my example, eh? (But good that I didn't bet on it)

[Mr_J]

Because "locks" and "guaranteed" are words that typical bettors use, and bookies prey on those types of bettors. Most favourites are significantly shaded. Of course some huge favourites will occasionaly be a good bet, but the majority are a money pit.