Nut flush draw faces aggression

[unterfish]

[ QUOTE ]

don't be afraid to be wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]
Shadow, my friend. Again:
[ QUOTE ]

don't be afraid to be wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Jago]

OP:
if you know utg is weak/loose raising is fine. if there were 2-3 limpers i would limp behind with your hand.
I'm not sure about the flop 3-bet, although my gut says it's pretty close

[shadow.]

unterfish,

?

i'm not afriad to be wrong. look at some of my first posts like 2.5 years ago. i'll post my answer (which is correct) when you answer my questions. if you don't want to, that's okay. i don't particularly care if you get better at poker or not. if you do, i can facillitate that process.

holla.

[unterfish]

Lol. Thats fine.
I dont know how excelled as a poker pro though. Thats fine by me. Because I dont want to read all these threads.
But still my question:
How would you answer your last question?
Im serious here. Because if you know, enlighten me.
If you dont... well, you know.

[shadow.]

i'd rather not waste my time here, ace.

the short story here is that hero likely has a huge equity edge against 2 players here and he should get in as many bets as possible. once it gets to heads up, he still has 15 outs, which will come in >50% of the time and thus he is stil at a commanding equity position. because of certain hand ranges, however, hero might not have the full 15 outs and he might also be subject to redraws.

thus, the initial raise is good, the 3-bet is more marginal, but still okay. i prefer not to 3-bet there, but there are certainly very legitimate reasons to do so, including equity, free cards, and others.

[unterfish]

Umm. Are you so sure about 15 outs on the flop given the action?
And I dont understand it on the turn because... You still just dont have 15 outs... And if you have them on the turn, you still dont have the odds for 50% or more.
Umm, maybe Im understanding something wrong here, but...
Maybe... you know,.... maybe you do. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[shadow.]

no, i'm not sure about the 15 outs given the action.

when it's hero's first action i think that 15 outs is a pretty reasonable guess. by the time it gets capped, i'm sure he has less than 15 outs. i know for sure that he probably has 9 to the nuts.

i don't know what this sentence means:

[ QUOTE ]
And I dont understand it on the turn because... You still just dont have 15 outs... And if you have them on the turn, you still dont have the odds for 50% or more.


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we might have even picked up some outs on the turn. likely not, but there's no way we're folding.

i don't really understand the rest of your post, either.

but i think that you're probably misunderstanding important pot equity concepts. i suggest that you revist sshe.

[unterfish]

Ok.
[ QUOTE ]

i'd rather not waste my time here, ace.

the short story here is that hero likely has a huge equity edge against 2 players here and he should get in as many bets as possible. once it gets to heads up, he still has 15 outs, which will come in >50% of the time and thus he is stil at a commanding equity position. because of certain hand ranges, however, hero might not have the full 15 outs and he might also be subject to redraws.

thus, the initial raise is good, the 3-bet is more marginal, but still okay. i prefer not to 3-bet there, but there are certainly very legitimate reasons to do so, including equity, free cards, and others.

[/ QUOTE ]

So, where has Hero a "huge quity edge"? On the flop, maybe. But the flop was capped anyway. So:::: On the Turn???
Where do you think to 3-bet here?
Where is your edge more than 50%?

[shadow.]

hero has a huge equity edge at his initial decision on the flop.

you can't justify your argument of not having an edge at the initial decision because the flop was capped.

edge is greater than 50% on the flop for sure. on the turn, it becomes less clear, but his edge is still greater than the odds that the pot is offering.

i was advocating a 3-bet nowhere in this hand. i said that there are compelling arguments for one on the flop and that such a 3-bet probably isn't a losing proposition. i happen to think that calling and raising when you hit is a "bigger winning proposition", meaning the net gain from 3-betting is less than the net gain from waiting. that's just a gut instinct and i could be wrong there. i'd have to do some math, but frankly, i have better things to do then walk you through this entire thing step-by-step.

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
So, where has Hero a "huge quity edge"? On the flop, maybe. But the flop was capped anyway. So:::: On the Turn???
Where do you think to 3-bet here?
Where is your edge more than 50%?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll give it a shot. I'm not as nice as Shadow:

UNTER, YOU HAVE TO AT LEAST TRY IT YOURSELF AND POST YOUR ANSWERS BEFORE ANYBODY WILL HELP YOU ANY FURTHER. THAT IS HOW ONE LEARNS.

If we just give you all the answers, then you've learned nothing. If you say, "ok, I've figured out all the answers," but don't tell us what they are, how are we to ever check your work. Just like primary-school maths, show your work for partial credit. Now, go back to Shadow's original list of questions and answer all of them, and we'll take it from there tomorrow.