Too Perfect Flop -- What line do you take?

[LearnedfromTV]

Yes. My point is that if this is a flop he could have hit in a lot of ways, some of them kind of weak, but hit none the less. You want him to think JJ/AT/KQ are good pretty often against your pottish bet, and that AJ, AK are occasionaly ahead, have all their outs live, and that you'll check the turn through pretty often. You want him to checkraise AQ, not be cautious with it. if you've established a pattern of betting aggressively in position as the preflop aggressor and a pattern of being the preflop aggressor with more than big pairs and AK, you'll be able to bet medium-big here instead of small. (I realize this isn't easy to have established early in the tournament, but the philosophy remains).

As an aside, I tend to bet 2/3-3/4 pot rather than full b/c I think it gives more flexibility for later streets with stacks as shallow as they are online, which i want because I'm making that bet with a variety of hands on the flop with very different turn and river plans.

[jcm4ccc]

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A too small bet may give him proper odds to continue with his hand.

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what is wrong with this? the only drawing hand that can suck out on you is the straight, but let's suppose the straight possibility is not there. so many people believe you should not give someone the proper odds to call. You have hit a set, top set i might add. you want to get as much VALUE as you can.

[/ QUOTE ] This is completely wrong. If you give someone the proper odds to call you, then it is a +cEV move for them to call your bet. This is by definition. If it is +cEV for your opponent to call you, then it is -cEV for you when they do.

[rockin]

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A too small bet may give him proper odds to continue with his hand.

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what is wrong with this? the only drawing hand that can suck out on you is the straight, but let's suppose the straight possibility is not there. so many people believe you should not give someone the proper odds to call. You have hit a set, top set i might add. you want to get as much VALUE as you can.

[/ QUOTE ] This is completely wrong. If you give someone the proper odds to call you, then it is a +cEV move for them to call your bet. This is by definition. If it is +cEV for your opponent to call you, then it is -cEV for you when they do.

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this is wrong!!!

you are saying that if your opponent is drawing dead even, then that you should not give them the odds to call. this (barring the straight draw, as i stated) is a perfect example of this. your opponent practically is drawing dead. Not every instance is about not giving the proper odds to call. This is one of those instances (agains assuming there are no straight draws on flop) where we need to get MAXIMUM value for the hand.

If you flopped quads, you are also saying that you don't want to give your opponent odds to draw to his hand????

[jcm4ccc]

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this is wrong!!!

you are saying that if your opponent is drawing dead even, then that you should not give them the odds to call.

[/ QUOTE ] If they are drawing dead, then you can't possibly give them the proper odds. A bet of 10 chips is +cEV for you. The only correct action for them is to fold to any bet.

Definition:
"Giving your opponent the odds to call." = Making a bet so that your opponent's pot odds are greater than his hand odds.

I think this is a debate about semantics. I know that you know what odds are, and all of that.

[Chicago Kid]

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A too small bet may give him proper odds to continue with his hand.

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what is wrong with this? the only drawing hand that can suck out on you is the straight, but let's suppose the straight possibility is not there. so many people believe you should not give someone the proper odds to call. You have hit a set, top set i might add. you want to get as much VALUE as you can.

[/ QUOTE ] This is completely wrong. If you give someone the proper odds to call you, then it is a +cEV move for them to call your bet. This is by definition. If it is +cEV for your opponent to call you, then it is -cEV for you when they do.

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Correct. But when you are giving someone pot odds to catch something like TP when you have a set, you're fine. This guy's odds of hitting a straight are much smaller.

In reality, you should be trying to get him to call a bet he THINKS he has pot odds to call.

This is the case here. The most dangerous draw is a straight, which he has 8 outs to hit. So give him worse odds than that.

[donpeters]

You have to go beyond what you plan to do with your cards and take a look at what hands your opponent may be playing. Depending on how your opponent plays, he may actually have caught a good chunk of that flop.

Let's say he raised UTG with AA, KK, AQ, or 1010. He may be opting for a check raise himself as a lot of less skilled players will check this flop with these hands. If you bet, he may come back over the top of you, or call hoping to trap you when he is the one falling into the trap.

Other options may be a hand like AK, AJ, KQ, KJ. Looser players will raise UTG with these hands. If he has, do you want him to see a free card and possibly draw out on you? A decent sized bet will cause your opponent to make a mistake if he wants to chase down his draw.

Your opponent may also have a hand like JJ or 99 and stick around to see the turn or what not. I see this plenty of times.

So all-in-all, I think a bet of about 2/3-3/4 the pot would be great right here. There is a good amount of money in the pot already for you to be happy with taking it down. He also may not confident in his hand, say if he has KQ. He then might just check/call you the entire way.

[LearnedfromTV]

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A too small bet may give him proper odds to continue with his hand.

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what is wrong with this? the only drawing hand that can suck out on you is the straight, but let's suppose the straight possibility is not there. so many people believe you should not give someone the proper odds to call. You have hit a set, top set i might add. you want to get as much VALUE as you can.

[/ QUOTE ] This is completely wrong. If you give someone the proper odds to call you, then it is a +cEV move for them to call your bet. This is by definition. If it is +cEV for your opponent to call you, then it is -cEV for you when they do.

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The key word is "may" - in fact it is highly unlikely that this UTG raiser is holding precisely KJ or J9. Protecting against an 8-outer is the least of your concerns because you're only doing it like 5% of the time you make your bet (in other words, if a smaller bet happens to be wrong versus his exact hand (KJ, say), this is only a slight drag on the EV of your bet versus the range of hands he could hold because it is only weighted 5%. *If* a bet that KJ is correct to call has higher EV versus many of the rest of the 95% of hands he could have, it is correct to let KJ draw cheap in order to increase the overall EV you have versus the range.

On average your opponent probably has 2 outs. AK/AJ have gutshots, overpairs have two outers, AQ/KQ and a couple others (like three-flushes) have runner runner. Rockin is correct but I don't like his phrasing.

I think he'd be better off saying "you don't mind giving proper odds for the hand with the most outs against you to call" because it is unlikely he holds that particular hand and much more likely that he has a hand with many fewe outs that can't profitably call any bet. The consideration is how to extract value from the range, not how to protect against the 8-out draw at its fringe. I think, generally, and especially if you have the proper image, a larger bet is still best, but the primary reason is not to protect against KJ/J9 (and can't be, b/c KJ/J9 is too small a part of his range to be the focus).

[rockin]

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this is wrong!!!

you are saying that if your opponent is drawing dead even, then that you should not give them the odds to call.

[/ QUOTE ] If they are drawing dead, then you can't possibly give them the proper odds. A bet of 10 chips is +cEV for you. The only correct action for them is to fold to any bet.

Definition:
"Giving your opponent the odds to call." = Making a bet so that your opponent's pot odds are greater than his hand odds.

I think this is a debate about semantics. I know that you know what odds are, and all of that.

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wrong again. HIS odds are the odds that he will be able to make a hand that will win. HE DOES NOT KNOW YOUR HAND.

Lets say you have JJ and flop is JJTr. You will gladly give your opponent odds to draw to his straight with a KQ or even quads if he has TT. Based on your betting he is getting odds to call a given bet based on his ASSUMPTION that the hand he is drawing to will be a winning hand.

[curtains]

Its hard to make a bet thats going to give your opponent "proper odds to continue the hand". What do you think they have that has enough outs to beat you by calling a 40% pot bet!! I'm not saying thats the right amount, but being concerned about letting them draw out on your cheaply is rarely a factor here, unless your bet is ridiculously small.

[LearnedfromTV]

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Its hard to make a bet thats going to give your opponent "proper odds to continue the hand". What do you think they have that has enough outs to beat you by calling a 40% pot bet!! I'm not saying thats the right amount, but being concerned about letting them draw out on your cheaply is rarely a factor here, unless your bet is ridiculously small.

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Exactly.