Is It Chasing Or Solid Poker?

[jordiepop]

VNH

[trontron]

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VNH

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QFT

[runout_mick]

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For some reason people think this poll/post is a joke. If it is, it's not a very good one.

My guess is, rather, that the poll is misconfigured and the OP didn't understand all the factors that go into making this decision.

To the OP, we need to know more, if you truly want an answer.

<ul type="square">[*]Limit or no-limit hold'em?[*]Preflop and flop betting is what?[*]How large are the stacks, if this is NL?[*]What do you expect to happen on the flop if you miss?[*]Are you certain to get your opponent's stack if you hit?[/list]
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Even more important: are our hearts higher than his pair?

If they are, we have a monster and should be raising as much on the flop (BEFORE the turn, our equity goes way down on a blank turn) as villain will allow.

If they aren't, we need ALL the variables to properly evaluate.




Edit: Note to James T:

Ignore all the posters who responded to your post as if it was a joke. They were blessed with knowing how to play world class poker at birth, while the rest of us must ask questions and study.

I have much more respect for your question than their responses, welcome to 2+2 and don't let these guys discourage you.

[argybargy2002]

I'm not 100% sure if the post is sreious or not. If it is, hopefully what I'm about to write will help. If it isn't then hopefully someone else may benefit from it. I actually wrote this on Wikibooks a couple of days ago, but I wrote it so I guess its ok to repost it here.

In Texas Holdem it is quite common for someone to flop 4 to a flush. The person should only draw to that flush if to do so would be +EV. In order to calculate the EV it is necessary to compare the size of the bet with the size of the pot. A flopped flush draw will come in approximately 1 in 3 times by the river,k thus in order for a call to be +EV the final pot must be larger than 3 times the call. This is a complicated issue so it may be useful to elaborate with a specific example.

Say you are playing 5-10 limit poker on the button, there are 3 limpers to you and you call with A4 diamonds. Both Blinds call so there is $30 in the pot. You flop the nut flush draw. The player in the small Blind bets $5 and there are four callers. Should you call, raise or fold?

Well, there is now $50 in the pot and it will cost you $5 to call so the pot is giving you 11:1 odds (ie you must pay $5 to win $55). We already know that the flush draw will get there 1 time in every 3 (1:2) so making the call is +EV. However, calling is not necessarily the best play in this situation. If you raise and the other 4 people in the pot decide to call your raise then you will be adding $5 to the pot whilst they will collectively be adding $20. This ratio is 4:1 but the chance of making your flush is only 1:2 so you are making money for every extra bet that goes into the pot. Notice that even though you have only a 33% chance to win the pot, the correct thing to do is actually to bet, despite knowing that you will probably not win.

Notice that all that has been done so far is compare the current pot with the bet size needed to call to calculate EV. However it is important to also compare the expected pot size by the end of the hand with the current bet. For example say you are playing no limit holdem and have a gutshot straight draw (giving you 4 outs to complete - approximately 1:6 against). If the pot is $30 and you are faced with a $10 bet the pot is not giving you the correct odds to call (it would need to be $50). However you also need to take into account the amount of money you may be able to extract from your opponents if you make your hand. If you expect your opponent to call a $100 bet if you make your hand, then the pot is really offering you 13:1 odds (the $30 pot at the time plus the $100 added on later streets) Therefore in this situation the +EV play would be to call. Thus when making decisions about whether to call a bet it is crucial to take into account both the stack sizes of yourself and your opponents and how willing they are likely to be to call big bets if you make your hand.

[coolio4433]

Pretty good post Argy, but I believe a gutshot is about a 10.5:1 odds to hit on the turn, and remember, if you don't hit it on the turn you'll likely have to pay another bet to make it on the river, so that argument isn't entirely accurate.

[argybargy2002]

True, I didn't think that part of it through. Still it might give op an idea of why we didn't think much of his question.