60-120 Hand Against Tony Ma

[ZJ123]

i have never folded for one more bet, preflop after i raised, and dont plan too. =)

[DeathDonkey]

Most Commerce regulars would ask Tony to take the profit, you could go that route [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

He really is that tight but I'd still try and flop a monster.

-DeathDonkey

[skp]

Since the main reason why we are calling is to spike an Ace, I don't think that it matters whether we have AJ or AQ.
I am calling here with A2.

In fact, I am calling with any 2 cards because as someone else said, there ain't a hand that I would fold for 1 more bet after I raised preflop. If it gets 3 bet and 4 bet, well that's a different story and there are lots of hands that I would fold.

[Justin A]

[ QUOTE ]
If he is only raising with AK, AA, KK, QQ then you are only going to continue when you flop an Ace. I believe you will flop an ace about 15% of the time. (1 to 5.5, or 1 in 6.5) But when you flop an Ace you won't always win and you will probably put more money in when you are behind, than he will put in when he is behind. I think you about 10% equity in this spot.

I know this is simplified analysis but I would lean towards folding. (I've folded AJ in this spot but not AQ)

[/ QUOTE ]

Flopping a queen and flopping an ace give you roughly the same equity against that range. Both times you're a small favorite, so it'd be pretty silly not to continue when you flop a queen.

Board: Qh 6d 7s
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 46.8360 % 46.84% 00.00% { QQ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 2: 53.1640 % 53.16% 00.00% { AQo }

Board: Ah 6d 7s
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 48.0247 % 47.76% 00.27% { QQ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 2: 51.9753 % 51.71% 00.27% { AQo }

[andyfox]

Sorry. I meant folding to a 3-bet preflop after making it two bets yourself. And you know I used "arsenal" as a compliment.

[andyfox]

A-A, K-K, Q-Q and perhaps A-K.

[andyfox]

That's close to how I played it.

[Nate.]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Tony Ma is on my immediate left. He hasn't played a hand since the Johnson administration, and I'm talking Andrew Johnson. I open UTG with A-Q. Tony 3-bets.

Time to pull a play from Tommy's arsenal and fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

Call, for 2 reasons:

A) He has KK. For this reason, I call the extra sb and see the flop.

B) One physical law of the game that I have incorporated through hard work and practice over the last 3 years and which has resulted in lots of money ... do the opposite of Angelo.

TSP

[/ QUOTE ]

TSP --

There's no need for this sort of personal attack. Please take it elsewhere or, better, stop doing it.

Andy --

I've only played mixed games with Tony and he's tight but not thaaaat tight. I'll defer to DeathDonkey here but if (before I read this thread) it were the first hand of hold'em I'd ever played with Tony, I'd call and get ready to fold later.

Tommy --

All right, now I've seen something like five posts from you in the past week. I hope this keeps up.

--Nate

[brick]

Thanks. Interesting.

So approx 30% of the time we flop a hand with 50% equity. The rest of the time we have to fold because we are OOP against a tight agressive player.

Sometime we flop a monster, sometimes he flops a bigger monster. He has position on us.

Using this corrected analysis we still only have about 15% equity on average, and we are out of position against a player who usually has a better hand. I don't have any proof that calling is -ev but it seems there is more chance it is -ev than +ev.

[Josh W]

[ QUOTE ]
AJ would be a no brainer fold but AQ is worth a call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree with this statement. I think the two hands (AJ and AQ) are very close, and both worth a call.

The thing is, if the flop comes Qxx (and you have AQ), you're likely to lose a lot or win less than a lot because you are out of position. That is, I think you could just bet/fold or check/fold those flops, and be done with the hand. With AJ, if you just check/fold on Jxx flops, you'll be in about the same spot.

I wouldn't necessarily recommend playing either of these hands this way, just saying that you could, and they'd have about the same value.

Really, you are hoping to flop a monster which is just as likely with AJ as it is with AQ. The only real difference in this spot is that with AQ you can flop one more openended straight draw (JT8) than you can with AJ.

That one extra straigth draw doesn't make one hand a clear fold and the other worthy of a call.

Josh