Big hand vs. Allen Cunningham

[0evg0]

The only way he's folding any set here is if he is prone to seizures.

And has one between the time you bet and him calling.

[Cornell Fiji]

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This must be how AC gets all the chips he does. He just waits for someone to snap and try to bluff "that super tight nit."

If he has a weak ace I think he'd c/c turn wa/wb. He wouldn't want to swell the pot. If he's donking turn it's probably because he wants to make the pot bigger because he has a real strong hand.

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This is what I am wondering about. What is AC doing with AQ/AJ in this spot? I do not think that he is c/cing and then check/folding the river unimproved but I don't think that he is calling 3 barrels with 1 pair weak kicker either. I don't think that he is check/folding the turn with AJ/AQ which means that the only option left for him on the turn is bet/fold.

If I have his range on 99, 33, AK, AQ, AJ, ATs, A9s, A8s, A3s (AA is not possible he is reraising that pf, A3s is discounted) and if he is folding all but 99, 33, maybe A9/A8/A3 then he will be folding this hand to me more often than not and there is a lot of dead money in this pot that would mean a lot to my stack... And when he does call, I have outs.

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I am not sure how often he would be able to muck 999

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This comment was made to accentuate how tight he has been playing. Yes, it was a bit of lvl 2 sarcasm. I will reserve such comments for BBV and HSNL in the future. Of course he is instacalling with the 2nd nuts here but the way that he was playing I do think that he is mucking two pair some percentage of the time greater than 0 as I have represented non stop strength with my hand.

What do you think that AC is putting me on?

[Ansky]

AC is never folding a hand better than 1 pair here.

[A_C_Slater]

Why can't AC c/c turn and then c/f river with AJ? He has to c/c turn in order to get to the river to then see if you'll 3 barrell before he can "know" that his AJ isn't good. He might even call a 3rd barrell I don't know. But I don't see why you say he can't c/c turn then c/f river. He isn't some donk that gets married to pots and top pair.

[Cornell Fiji]

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Why can't AC c/c turn and then c/f river with AJ?

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He could do this but I think that it is an inferior play to leading the turn and I thought that he would also think that it was an inferior play.

Because I think so highly of his game I am assuming that he would not make what might be an inferior play here.

As I said before, this was my thought process at the time and I thought he was betting a mid ace and I was very confident that if that was what he had that he would fold it. I also thought he could fold 2 pair but I am not sure that he would fold it.

I think this was a very interesting hand because of the range that I had Cunningham on and am hoping that this could become an insightful thread

[ActionBob]

I don't think the push is awful here. I'm just a bit worried about your thoughts behind it as I get the impression from your original post that part of the reason behind your push was giving him such a tight range and thinking he could fold two pair or even some sets here. There is almost zero chance of this happening.

-ActionBob

[nath]

It's tricky b/c the line AC takes is often indicative of either a)a mediocre hand that wants to take down the pot and/or find out it's good or b)a strong hand that wants to get more money in or confound hero into making a mistake.
So I don't hate it. You fold the mediocre hands that beat you, and you still have outs vs. the better hands. If someone has a range for this line and they can plug it in, you could find out for sure.

[Cornell Fiji]

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It's tricky b/c the line AC takes is often indicative of either a)a mediocre hand that wants to take down the pot and/or find out it's good or b)a strong hand that wants to get more money in or confound hero into making a mistake.
So I don't hate it. You fold the mediocre hands that beat you, and you still have outs vs. the better hands. If someone has a range for this line and they can plug it in, you could find out for sure.

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if he does not fold then I am in for a wold of hurt... but I think that he will fold AK, AQ, AJ, AT, A7s, A6s, A5s, A4s, some if not all 2 pair combos. I think that A7s-A4s should be discounted because he is less likely to have them preflop but if that is the case then the 2 pair combos are also less likely. I think that AK should be slightly discounted because of the times that he would reraise me preflop.

Given these assumptions my fold equity makes this a worthwhile

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Board: Ah 8c 9d 3c

equity (%) win (%)
Hand 1: 17.1457 % 17.15% { Kc7c }
Hand 2: 82.8543 % 82.85% { 88, 33, A3s+, ATo+ }

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[TheRealDeal]

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I am not sure how often he would be able to muck 999

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... absolutely never?

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[Nate.]

Fiji --

I had the pleasure of playing with Allen for quite a while this summer. I would bet a lot of money that you completely misinterpreted his play and his ranges. "Over a small sample a world-class player hasn't called much. Therefore if I minraise his big blind he won't call with hardly anything."

I could point out any of very many statements in your OP that are nowhere near correct -- Cunningham would fold AQ preflop to the minraise? He would lead the turn because he wouldn't know what to do on the river? -- but it would miss the point; you could not have done a worse job of understanding your opponent or interpreting information at the table.

--Nate