MyTurn's week 8 CFB (10/19-10/21)

[livin_a_lie]

OMG BOBJOEJIM HAD THAT ONE TOO!!!11!!!ONE!!!!

[BobJoeJim]

nope, stayed away from this one.

[MyTurn2Raise]

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Thursday pick
Virginia -6.5 v North Carolina

Sagarin predictor has Virginia as 8.29 point favorites.
Dunkel has Virginia over 7.6 points better.
Both of those are without the home field advantage factored

Game is at Virginia

UNC is bad across the board:
80th rush offense
113th pass efficiency
99th in scoring offense (17.5 ppg)
113th in rush defense
93rd pass efficiency defense
115th in scoring defense

While the Tarheels have played a very tough schedule thus far, the 45-42 home victory verse Furman and 37-20 loss to South Florida stick out. So, even against below average opponents, UNC has sucked.

OK, so Virginia sucks, too. Their offense is also around #100 in the country playing an easier schedule. However, the Cavaliers defense is average and the special teams are slightly above average. That will be enough.

I expect the bad Cavaliers offense to succeed against the bad Carolina defense. The Virginia offense has really got their personnel straight and settled in the last few weeks. They got 37 verse Duke, 21 verse East Carolina, and 26 verse Maryland. I expect them to look pretty decent against a poor Carolina team at home.

On the other side, Carolina will again look awful. They just have no one. The only caveat is they did have some success verse a pretty good South Florida team.

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Virginia 23
North Carolina 0

ship it

[easternbloc]

thanks for that pick. I was leaning toward va on this game but your post convinced me to bet it, and despite the slow start I was happy with the end result.

[MinRaise]

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POTW: Wisconsin -6 @ Purdue

are you kidding me? I know this is on the road, but this line is off by alot. The Badgers are a covering machine and I cannot believe I haven't been riding them big...a few $10 bets the last few weeks instead of really believing.

The matchups are perfect for the Badgers.

Purdue offense v Badger defense
The Boilers are pass, pass, pass again and they've been doing it well as they are 4th in yards passing (37 in efficiency) and aaveraging 33 points per game. While that looks good for the Boilers, the reality is that the majority of these stats were racked up against Ball St, Miami(OH), Indiana St, and Northwestern. The Boilers only scored 27 verse Minny, 21 at South Bend, and 17 in Iowa city. The Badgers defense is a pass stopping machine. They are #2 in the country on pass efficiency defense (though their schedule sort of sucks, too). The good news is Wisconsin has been so strong with pass efficiency defense without gettign many sacks. The Boilers don't allow sacks. This means is business as usual for the Badgers whose coverage will hold down a Purdue receiving corps that's decent, but not lights out.

Wisconsin offense v Boiler defense
For those living under a rock, the Boiler defense sucks absolute balls: 90th verse the rush, 98th pass efficiency, 101 ppg. The Badgers bring their bruising, punishing running attack verse the smaller Boilers squad that tries to get by on speed over size. This isn't good. Remember the Arkansas-Auburn game from a few weeks ago; this will be much worse. The Badgers are top20 in running and average over 190 ypg on the ground. They will pound out first down after first down. The Badgers will control the clock and wear out the undersized Boiler D. This looks brutal. The surest way to overcome playing on the road is to take their fans out of the game by pounding out first down after first down. It's deflating.

Special teams
Edge to the Badgers. Boilers FG kicker sucks, net punting is below average, punt returns suck, kickoffs are average.
Badgers kickoff returns suck, but their punting is good, and FG is adequete.

Last year, the Badgers won 31-13 after outscoring the Boilers 21-0 down the stretch.

Dunkel index has the Badgers 17.5 points higher and the Sagarin predictor has the Badgers 17.5 points higher.
WOW!!!!!!!!!

In addition, unlike some other POTWs, I don't see the Badgers putting up 4+ turnovers unless there is a really freak occurance.

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Unfortunately, I have to agree with this assessment. I will be attending this game, and I am very pessimistic about Purdue's chances. I will not bet on Purdue to lose, but I was expecting this line to be somewhere closer to +12. With the sad state of our D, a very good RB and a senior QB are going to have a field day.

I have also lost faith in our coaching staff. Tiller makes awful in-game decisions. He refuses to go for it 4th and 1 at midfield, which should be a must with our D. Also with three seconds to go in the first half @ NW at the 1 inch line and a 14-10, he went for a FG. This will all be lost this year because the schedule is so easy, and 9-4 isn't unrealistic with this mediocre team.

End rant.

[MyTurn2Raise]

2 lost years....last year, the schedule was good, too

I even bet on the Boilers at 60-1 to win the title last year [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

[MinRaise]

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2 lost years....last year, the schedule was good, too

I even bet on the Boilers at 60-1 to win the title last year [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

I wish the 2003 team had this schedule. There are seven players from that D still in the NFL, four are starting. I really gave Spack a lot of credit back then. Now he looks totally clueless.

[MyTurn2Raise]

Iowa u15.5 @ Michigan good until -135

I was leaning toward Michigan on the spread and then it occured to me the real value here is Iowa's total being low. Iowa fulfilled my constant calling for them being overrated last week. This week is a different beast. Iowa has put up some impressive totals all year. They are averaging over 29 ppg. But, sometimes the numbers lie. Iowa has only faced two defenses in the top80 (in terms of scoring defense); Ohio State and Montana (who is up there from the weaker schedule).
Iowa played a very good game against Ohio State and put up 17 at home. I expect more struggles against a Michigan D that might just be the best in the country. MIchigan is #1 verse the run, allowing below 33 ypg!!!!
I've stated before how Iowa doesn't have the ability to stretch opposing defenses. It looks to be a nightmare situation verse a MIchigan team, that is near the top in sacks and tfl, who will bring everyone up to pressure and terrorize the Hawkeyes. Michigan allowed 7 v Vandy, 17 v C Mich, 21 @ Notre Dame, 13 v Wisconsin, 14 @ Minny, 13 v Michigan St, and 10 @ Penn St. That's a pretty decent lineup of good competition all held down by the Maize and Blue. The only 2 teams to get above 15.5 did it in garbage time, one of those being a vertical attacking, pass happy Notre Dame team. I don't think Iowa has the tools for explosive plays to score, even in garbage time.

[MyTurn2Raise]

Mississippi/Arkansas U41 good until 40.5

nightmare matchup for Mississippi on defense as their pathetic run stoppers go up against a huge Arkansas running attack. Yet, I am still taking the under. The key is that this game won't have many possessions. Both teams plan to run, run, run. It's Arkansas' strength and Ole'Miss just cannot pass. Even in the Razorbacks total domination of Auburn, it was only a 27-10 game. Ole' Miss is coming off a bitter defeat. The OT pushed their score upto 26-23. Previously, the Rebels beat Vandy 17-10, lost to Georgia 14-9, and lost to Wake Forest 17-3. This game screams of 34-37 points.

[MyTurn2Raise]

Ohio/Buffalo O41.5 good until 44.5

Buffalo has flipped the script the last few weeks and finally realized their run game is so bad that they have to pass early and often. They lost 38-31 verse Miami(Oh) and 55-25 verse Ball State the last two games!
The Bobcats are a pretty decent team that struggles against good rush defenses (see Rutgers and Mizzou games). Buffalo does not provide a good rush defense. Look for Ohio to get 30+. Buffalo's renewed passing will add positions and scores.