set of Jacks / deception

[ymu]

How many hands could he play this way, and how many of these are KK?

Any AK (12 hands), any AQ with a heart (8 hands), AA (12 hands), 88 (6 hands), KK (6 hands). Maybe QhQx (3 hands). As it was a button raise, maybe also AhJx (3 hands), KJ (9 hands) or AhTh (1 hand) if he thinks you'll defend your blinds with weaker hands and/or calls reraises loose.

So he has a higher set 6/44 or 6/47 times, or 1 in ~ 7.5 (worst case), or 6/57 or 6/60 times, or about 1 in 10 (if he's looser preflop).

You could weight this a bit against KK given that he didn't 4-bet preflop, but he's in position and may have figured that if you're just defending your blinds from a steal, he'll get more value by letting you c-bet the flop.

Go broke here every time and feel happy about it.

[nuts]

[ QUOTE ]
no. please read my post again.

[/ QUOTE ]

okay then, (although this still belongs in bbv), I think you should interpret his minbet on the button as a sign of strength, he wants action here. you're playing for set value when you call, and you've hit the set on a scary board. you decided your hand was good and pushed, great.

his overbet on the flop probably means he's worried about the made flush or has a draw to the nut flush. he'd have to be pretty aggro to make this move with an AK or AA without the Ah I think.

[pho75]

You have to bet this flop and you have to push his raise. IMO, there is no other way that hand could have gone down.