looking ahead Week 3 Atlanta vs. NO

[adios]

As others have mentioned but I'll re-emphasize I guess, Atlanta has a huge running game. They've racked up considerable yards against two good defenses (my opinion of course on the Ds) so far. Also the zone blocking scheme that Atlanta uses seems to be getting more popular in the NFL as Denver has had success with it as well. Apparently it's difficult to defense.

About the Saints vs. Packers game, the Saints had 3 turnovers early in that game as that resulted in 13 points for the Packers. The Saints totally shut down the Packers running game as the Packers best running play was a reverse to Driver for 16 yards. The Packers had 63 yards total on the ground against the Saints and remember the Packers jumped out to a 13 pt lead so they weren't forced to play "catch up" for much of the game. In week 1 the Saints defense stuffed the Browns running game as Frye was Clevelands leading rusher from his scrambles (perhaps this bodes well for Vick's skills). The Packers rushed for 103 yards at 4.5 a carry vs. the Bears in week one. The Browns rushed for only 57 yds total and 2.9 a carry vs. the Bengals. My sense is that the Saints are have at least a good defense against the run which is the Falcons strength. Also my sense is that the Saints weak spot on defense is defending the pass which is not the Falcons strength on offense. The Falcons will be up against a better offense than they saw yesterday and in week one IMO. Division road favorites are not my favorite betting opportunity as well. Just rambling here but I'm luke warm at best on this game FWIW.

[J.A.K.]

The last time ATL beat NO at the Superdome by >3 was 2001. This is a traditionally close rivalry. NO has held both opponents (although weak) to <100 yds. rushing. Vick has ~230 passing yds in 2 games and if he HAS to throw, forget it. With the reopening of SD, capable RBs (McCallister/Bush) and a solid QB in Drew Brees my money is going on NO. Although I am seriously leaning towards a middle on Pinny.

[Shrug]

I canot detach myself emotionally from this game, so I think I will pass on wagering and just enjoy the game [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[aal113086]

[ QUOTE ]
As far as Atl coming down to earth. They are this good, they were this good two years ago and you add John Abraham and D. Hall is in his 3rd year now. You win in the NFL if you can run and stop the run. They are top 5 in the league in both when it's all said and done. There offense looks like West Virginia and that in the NFL is just insane.

[/ QUOTE ] I completely agree... don't forget about lawyer milloy either... Atlanta looks good on paper and they've proved it on the field the last two weeks

[barryc83]

Wrong, this one will be close. Wait till Vick is forced to pass the ball on 3rd and long. This game is always close, especially for their first home game in the dome after katrina on MNF without a QB with the last name Brooks. I can see the Saints winning this outright. Stay away from this one. And the worst part of the Saints D is the secondary not the front seven. The Saints are so much better without Brooks there.

[MacGuyV]

Lawyer Milloy is finished.

[NajdorfDefense]

[ QUOTE ]
Atlanta right now looks like my game of the week for Week 3. But I'm not placing early, yet. But I will be watching carefully.

Per my writeup on my Atlanta pick in my picks thread, I think they're going to be undervalued some this week due to their final score of 14-3. I think the general public is high on the Saints with the firepower they displayed in Green Bay and since they probably didn't get to see the Falcons game, will think that Atlanta struggled on offense only scoring 14. in reality, the Falcons missed four field goals, two blocked and two just flat missed. Their running game was the most dominant I've seen in the NFL in a long time. Vick looked brilliant. This score should have been at least 23-3 which is much more evident of the way the game actually played out and the start to finish dominance of the Falcons. And that's without one of their best defensive players who hopefully will be back next week.

I think Atlanta is significantly undervalued here, but I think based on the early movement we may be able to contine to wait and get an even better price. There's a lot of publicity and attention around NO with Bush, the Bush drama on the wires, and of course the emotional return of the Saints to NO this week. i'm going to watch this carefully but I can almost guarantee this will be a play in my system - only question is how strong the play will end up.

[/ QUOTE ]

what about ATL's defensive injuries?

[dankhank]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't see how it gets better. I have it at -3 +106 which I got on Pinnacle very early this morning. I'd be shocked if it ever returns to that price.

[/ QUOTE ]

i wish i had bet last night. best i can get now is -3 -113. i wonder if this number will ever stabilize back at -105 range or if i should grab it now. maybe when mansion and matchbook put up their prices it will loosen up the ATL market a little.

[Force1]

I did like ATL but I stopped and thought about and the line looks really wrong, and everyone loves ATL in this game to me that means to jump all over NO. Take NO on the ML.

[Performify]

Yeah, looks like I was on the wrong side of this predicted line move. My bad.

At this point there's nothing to hurry on, except to wait and see what happens to the line and see what's up with ATL's injuries.