Do favorites continue their dominance in '06 NFL?

[Freerollin`]

Sigh. Efficent Markets and the theory of a "random walk" are not the same thing.

Also, the poster you criticized didn't assume it to be an anomoly. He assumed that sports betting was an efficient market (which it is not). From that, he assumed that last year was an anomoly.

Stop trying to sound smart.

[almostbusto]

[ QUOTE ]
Sigh. Efficent Markets and the theory of a "random walk" are not the same thing.

Also, the poster you criticized didn't assume it to be an anomoly. He assumed that sports betting was an efficient market (which it is not). From that, he assumed that last year was an anomoly.

Stop trying to sound smart.

[/ QUOTE ]i didn't say anything about the "theory of a random walk" i was just trying to explain the notion of an error term centered at zero.

the last two sentences i agree with. so i don't get what issue you have with me. simply put, if you assume there is no pattern then, any pattern that surfaces must be an anomaly right?

[sygamel]

As someone who took a bath last season (minus 16 units), I ran the numbers and couldn't come up with a conclusive answer about what happened. I like to think it was an anomaly but that may just be wishful thinking. I've made some small adjustments but am more or less using the same skeleton of a betting system, with accounting for the results of last season.

Also wanna send a shoutout to all the regs from this board last season...

[kdog]

Good to see you back Sygamel. Ever gonna update that blog?

[sygamel]

hey kdog...I just did tonight, not much there yet though.