($60t) shortie pushes on bubble, i want in

[AllinDan]

I only skimmed the replies but I'm confused about why people are considering calling. Even if bb folds and co steals the blinds, they are about to hit him again, and you'll still have some fold equity when it comes back around to you. I mean, unless you KNOW you have co dominated, its got to be a fold?

that said, if you do decide that you are ahead of co's range and want to play, I think a push >>> a call. You'll be getting very good odds on the hand with dead money from the blinds, and a thinking bb could easily move you off your hand post flop which would be disastrous for you. To compare, would you just call AK here? how about TT?

[peek-a-boo]

None of the remaining are "donkeys", in the traditional sense. The blinds here are just both tight and passive. Seemingly both content on letting me & shortie dictate the pace. CO is a decent player.

Like with most hands, you can fudge ranges enough to make this a call/push. I have NO idea what to do with the guys behind, considering I think I might want the help (????).

The "call" is break even @ 25% push (22+,A2+,KTo+,K8s+,QTs+). With his read on the blinds and with eating the the BB next himself, I personally think that even a 30+% range is reasonable.

As Scuba mentioned, the EV swings here are huge.

Ahead or not, losing the "race" HU would be devastating. If I push, there is a VERY good chance the blinds would fold all but the top hands...including BB here.

[bluefeet]

I'd call - because I suck at racing. Once called, I'm folding like never. The point being that I want shortie to beat both hands, not stick around long enough to hope BB's flop rep holds.

[bennies]

[ QUOTE ]

The "call" is break even @ 25% push (22+,A2+,KTo+,K8s+,QTs+).

[/ QUOTE ]

Good post, but let me comment on the above statement. This "call" (effectively a push) is only breakeven compared to the scenario where hero and both blinds fold. And this scenario obviously would suck for hero since shortie would take the blinds at no contest. In reality SB and/or BB usually make the call here thus giving hero's fold a higher EV.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]


Hi, commenting on your 3 paragraphs (I don't know if they were all adressed to my post).

1: We obviously need someone to do calcs for some ranges. However, without doing them my feel tells me we need to be ahead of shorties range to play here, I could be wrong of course, these potential 3-way things are tricky...



[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think your feel is doing you justice. I also don't think that thinking about this as 3 way is really that important a decision for whether to play the hand or not. Once you decide to play the hand, then you can decide if you want to "invite" any of the blinds in.

I am at work, so I'm just guessing, but I think the bottom end of the range for some reasonable tight range for hero is (-0.3%) EV (let's say any pair, any ace for example). Once we begin to loosen the range, the EV escalates rapidly. For example, I would be suprised if any pair, any ace, any two broadway is less than +0.5% EV.

Anyway, the reason I think your feel is off is because you're not considering the amount of dead chips along with the substantial equity transfer if shorty steals.

If we are also thinking about sitting out and shoving any two cards from UTG next hand (which is likely our best option if the bubble still exists), we're now shoving into current villain (who OP has said is the only good player at the table). I don't care much for this as the next best option, fwiw. We have a lot of card equity here in this hand.

[Austiger]

I think I'd call and invite BB in. The problem is what do we do if the flop comes A/J and BB bets? What if it's 87K and he checks? Do we push then?

[WordWhiz]

I'd call and invite BB in, and hope to check it down.

[ QUOTE ]
I think I'd call and invite BB in. The problem is what do we do if the flop comes A/J and BB bets? What if it's 87K and he checks? Do we push then?

[/ QUOTE ]

If I have any piece of the flop, I'm calling BB's push. The only way we lose is if shortie beats us both. If BB thinks he has a good enough hand to bet rather than check down, and I have a piece myself, the odds that shortie has an even better hand or will suck out are quite slim.