AA 60 hand

[siegfriedandroy]

would a flop fold be horrid here once it's two back?

[ QUOTE ]
very good live 60-120. i get AcAd utg+1 and raise, awful player next in cold calls, sb who is maybe decent sometimes laggy calls, bb who is good semi laggy calls. 4 of us.

the flop is 875 w/ two clubs. sb checks, bb bets, i raise, fish calls two cold, sb 3 bets, bb caps, i call, fish calls.

the turn is 5c. sb bets, bb calls, i raise, fish calls two cold, sb calls, bb calls.

the river is another 5. sb checks, bb bets, i call.

comments?

[/ QUOTE ]

[HIV]

HOly [censored] raise the river and 4 bet if u are 3 bet, jesus christ

[AlexSem]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Have you considered that AA is no good?

Why are you raising the turn where you are quite likely behind? to get re-raised? I mean. You put them on 78 or A8 or a pocket?

What about 88, 77, 65? Flush?


If it's 65, 88 or 77, you're drawing to 2 outs.

if it's a flush, you're drawing to um, 13 - 6 = 7 outs. You can take out the 7 or 8 as an out, so 6 outs.


What are you trying to chase out on the turn that's going to fold and what are the chances you're drawing dead or slim?

[/ QUOTE ]

You aren't counting outs very well if he's up against a flush. Not sure why you are discounting a 7 or 8, but you are also overlooking two 5s and 2 As. He has 10 or 11 outs, and by raising the turn, he may get a hand like 99 or A6 to fold which would be very good for him.

And, gabe, I have to disagree. The BB may well have a JJ or QQ, not threebet it preflop, then use the flop as a perfect opportunity to force out a presumed AQ/AK type of hand.

Mike, I prolly raise the river. I think BB put you on a flush and is betting his fullhouse. You can't count on any overcalls. I don't see how BB can be only calling your turn raise with a boat, given that SB's already put in two bets and will likely put in a third with a hand that is drawing (and drawing dead).

Raise the river (and, yes, pay off a 3rd bet)

Josh

[/ QUOTE ]


First off I'd like to apologize for the outs thing, it was mighty late and yes it's 2 outs if up against 65,

4 + 9 (prolly 8 because 7 or 8 of clubs would give be a very scary card) outs if against 78, 88, 77.

Ok and then um, 4 + 7 outs if against a flush.


That aside:

Let me ask this -

How often is Mike BEHIND on the turn. How often do you think he is ahead?

IF he is behind, is it CORRECT to raise?

If he is ahead, it's kinda obvious.

When he didn't get re-raised on the turn, I think it kinda sealed the fact that you're not up against a boat but maybe a low flush 2 pair or a pathetic draw.

With that in mind, I think it's still better to just call the river and let 1-2 more people call, rather than raise and get called by 1.

[Josh W]

[ QUOTE ]


First off I'd like to apologize for the outs thing, it was mighty late and yes it's 2 outs if up against 65,

4 + 9 (prolly 8 because 7 or 8 of clubs would give be a very scary card) outs if against 78, 88, 77.

Ok and then um, 4 + 7 outs if against a flush.


That aside:

Let me ask this -

How often is Mike BEHIND on the turn. How often do you think he is ahead?

IF he is behind, is it CORRECT to raise?

If he is ahead, it's kinda obvious.

When he didn't get re-raised on the turn, I think it kinda sealed the fact that you're not up against a boat but maybe a low flush 2 pair or a pathetic draw.

With that in mind, I think it's still better to just call the river and let 1-2 more people call, rather than raise and get called by 1.

[/ QUOTE ]

the 7c and 8c are already on the board. THere are 7 clean clubs (K, Q, J, T, 9, 6, 4, 3, 2 minus the two in our opponents hand...if they have a flush).

If Mike is behind, I think raising is still correct IF he won't get reraised and IF he's going to call a river bet. And, I may be remembering the OP incorrectly, but I think there was only 1 player behind mike who COULD call.

Josh

[DpR]

I'm in the super easy river raise camp. No hand you are behind makes sense on the turn. I think your good here around 95%

[Bill King]

[ QUOTE ]
HOly [censored] raise the river and 4 bet if u are 3 bet, jesus christ

[/ QUOTE ]
dude raising the river is probably the worst play you can make in this hand.

[Bill King]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


First off I'd like to apologize for the outs thing, it was mighty late and yes it's 2 outs if up against 65,

4 + 9 (prolly 8 because 7 or 8 of clubs would give be a very scary card) outs if against 78, 88, 77.

Ok and then um, 4 + 7 outs if against a flush.


That aside:

Let me ask this -

How often is Mike BEHIND on the turn. How often do you think he is ahead?

IF he is behind, is it CORRECT to raise?

If he is ahead, it's kinda obvious.

When he didn't get re-raised on the turn, I think it kinda sealed the fact that you're not up against a boat but maybe a low flush 2 pair or a pathetic draw.

With that in mind, I think it's still better to just call the river and let 1-2 more people call, rather than raise and get called by 1.

[/ QUOTE ]

the 7c and 8c are already on the board. THere are 7 clean clubs (K, Q, J, T, 9, 6, 4, 3, 2 minus the two in our opponents hand...if they have a flush).

If Mike is behind, I think raising is still correct IF he won't get reraised and IF he's going to call a river bet. And, I may be remembering the OP incorrectly, but I think there was only 1 player behind mike who COULD call.

Josh

[/ QUOTE ]


i dont think a river raise is that smart here. you have to call at this point, but raising is getting a little out of line IMO

[AlexSem]

[ QUOTE ]

If Mike is behind, I think raising is still correct IF he won't get reraised and IF he's going to call a river bet. And, I may be remembering the OP incorrectly, but I think there was only 1 player behind mike who COULD call.

Josh

[/ QUOTE ]


Josh,

Can you explain why raising is the correct play here?

More specifically - what hands would SB hold that he bet with that he's not re-raising vs hands he would be raising with?


As I see it:

IF Mike is ahead on the turn - he is being called by the BB and the SB.

Then check check, Mike bets river and gets called by let's say 1 player (bb on draw so he folds?).

That's 5BB he wins. Putting in 3BB


If he is behind and he raises and gets re-raised, then he's either nearly dead or what was it, 10 outs or whatever? So in essence 1/4.5 or there somehwere.

So he puts in 3BB even if he's most likely behind.


Now if he calls the turn and then calls/raises the river depending on what comes. Wouldnt' that be a far more certain play with far less risk?

You'd win um, 3BB on turn + 2-3BB on river by just calling.

That's pretty much the same amount. So um, the only reason to raise turn is to chase out the fish that's most likely sticking around with some trash anyway?

Or?

[Josh W]

Reread the part of my post that you quoted. We're talking apples and oranges.

[Bill King]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
what if i fold the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmmmm. A bad player and 2 lags capped it up. Real hard to fold for me.

[/ QUOTE ]

the turn wouldnt be that hard to fold though if you got that much of a bad feeling on the flop.