Riverfold with TPTK against TAG

[StellarWind]

I don't like this fold at 11-1. Players sometimes do wait until the river to raise a king.

Anyway the fold is wrong from a game theory perspective. You should be betting this river with KQ, QQ, AJ, QJs, and JTs. It's 11-1, are you folding all these weaker hands and AK too? You'll lose a fortune if he exploits that.

That means you need a read that he can be trusted. But all you have are stats (AF = 2.9) that suggest that maybe he *can't* be trusted.

My recommendation is to look him up with QQ or better until you have a clear read.

An interesting alternative to calling is 3-betting. This bluff only has to work 1/13 of the times when you are behind. Reading the folders in this thread make me think that's an atttractive gamble.